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Posts by Aaron Erlich

OSF

All of the time-stamped versions of our PAP are available under FILES at osf.io/97mnj/?view_... = 3e 89348737ef4911904a4b7b92593902/.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
OSF

Third, after the first week of the study, we specified that w would sample more low-quality news outlets if we were not getting a sufficient number of false stories after the first two weeks of data collection (see Section K, page 32 of the PAP Appendix from 05–21–2024).

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
OSF

Second, we updated the PAP after conditional acceptance with editorial approval before our fieldwork, as a result of changed conditions related to the ongoing war.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
OSF

When social science research resumed after the invasion, we resubmitted a modified version of the PAP. We then made three additional sets of updates to the PAP as the project unfolded. First, after each of two rounds of revise & resubmit, we updated the PAP to address requests from peer reviewers

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
OSF

We submitted our PAP for peer review to JEPS on January 17, 2022, just prior to Russia’s full-scale
invasion of Ukraine. However, we suspended review of the study in the aftermath of the full-scale invasion.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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I'd like to reflect on how much certain branches of social science have changed in the last decade: here is the note at the beginning our JEPS pre-registered report -- just out: 1/3

2 months ago 0 0 1 0

Does anyone have thoughtful approaches to evaluating graduate-level quantitative methods courses in the era of generative AI? I have looked at a lot of folks' syllabi, and they are from a few years ago. It feels like there has been a sea change in the meantime. Thoughts on evaluation?

4 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Super interesting! I see you haven't gone back to exams or anything like that. Do you think it's sustainable and that students aren't just using LLMs as a massive crutch anyhow?

5 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Did an access-to-information system in #Mexico work? Did it become more responsive to public requests for information over time, or did portions of the public become more "expert" in their requests, which in turn ensured responses from the system?

7 months ago 3 2 1 0
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The July issue of @worldpolitics.bsky.social is out! Learn about #DemocraticSocialist #PoliticalParty strategies, participatory institutions, #WealthInequality, #migrants and #socialsecurity coordination, and #Kissinger and #SoftPower. muse.jhu.edu/issue/55120 #Inequality #Capitalism

9 months ago 9 4 1 2
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Elder, Am I Right? Age-Group Differences in Social and Political Interactions in Africa Abstract. Age-group differences play an essential role in social interaction across sub-Saharan Africa. However, the social effects of these differences re

I am super excited that this article about how age differences in the survey enumeration process might influence survey results in Sub-Saharan Africa bit.ly/3DUSh3m. Using @afrobarometer.bsky.social data, I show they do. Teaser, they may be more important than coethnicity. Check it out!

1 year ago 2 0 0 0

Does anyone know the approximate cost savings for journals to outsource their production to India? The quality of the services is just so low... and I truly wonder what the savings are.

1 year ago 1 0 1 0

Very relicable 😆

1 year ago 2 0 0 0

It would be cool to compare the false negatives from just using the abstract! But yea, one would think they might under count some stuff. Other elements of precision/recall are also interesting.

1 year ago 1 0 0 0

I dunno. Maybe it is worth it to distinguish research designs and estimators? I think that methods is growing alongside survey experiments. But I get the point! It's a subset of natural experiment.

1 year ago 1 0 0 0
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I guess we should commend AJPS for making big steps in being more global. How does this differ from this Knutsen paper? www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/ha...

1 year ago 2 0 1 0

Unexpected Event Study Design?

1 year ago 1 0 1 0

The # is a bit arbitrary - maybe worse than statistical rules of thumb. But I think you are in this game bc you have multiple good ideas about publishable papers; hopefully, one figures a way to parcel them out steadily. Clumping sucks. I had a COVID backlog and put 10 for review at a time 🔫 🤯.

1 year ago 1 0 0 0

That's very cool. But the day seems a bit arbitrary hard to estimate, no?

1 year ago 2 0 1 0

I'm thrilled to see this work of years in print! AJPS just posted the blog version. Key takeaways: we have a more optimistic view of anti-corruption messaging than some recent articles. However, anti-corruption messaging is also by no means a panacea. We should be realistic about its effects!

1 year ago 5 0 0 0

Thanks @joenoonan.se! I’m glad you found it useful!

1 year ago 1 0 0 0
Erlich, Aaron, and Jordan Gans-Morse. 2025. “ Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption?” American Journal of Political Science 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12940

Abstract 
Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption? Such campaigns use messaging about how people typically behave (descriptive norms) or ought to behave (injunctive norms). Drawing on survey and lab experiments in Ukraine, we unpack and evaluate the distinct effects of these two types of social norms. Four findings emerge: First, injunctive-norm messaging produces consistent but relatively small and temporary effects. These may serve as moderately effective, low-cost anti-corruption tools but are unlikely to inspire large-scale norm transformations. Second, contrary to recent studies, we find no evidence that either type of norm-based messaging “backfires” by inadvertently encouraging corruption. Third, descriptive-norm messages emphasizing corruption's decline produce relatively large and long-lasting effects—but only among subjects who find messages credible. Fourth, both types of norm-based messaging have a substantially larger effect on younger citizens. These findings have broader implications for messaging campaigns, especially those targeting social problems that, like corruption, require mitigation of collective action dilemmas.

Erlich, Aaron, and Jordan Gans-Morse. 2025. “ Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption?” American Journal of Political Science 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12940 Abstract Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption? Such campaigns use messaging about how people typically behave (descriptive norms) or ought to behave (injunctive norms). Drawing on survey and lab experiments in Ukraine, we unpack and evaluate the distinct effects of these two types of social norms. Four findings emerge: First, injunctive-norm messaging produces consistent but relatively small and temporary effects. These may serve as moderately effective, low-cost anti-corruption tools but are unlikely to inspire large-scale norm transformations. Second, contrary to recent studies, we find no evidence that either type of norm-based messaging “backfires” by inadvertently encouraging corruption. Third, descriptive-norm messages emphasizing corruption's decline produce relatively large and long-lasting effects—but only among subjects who find messages credible. Fourth, both types of norm-based messaging have a substantially larger effect on younger citizens. These findings have broader implications for messaging campaigns, especially those targeting social problems that, like corruption, require mitigation of collective action dilemmas.

Hot off the Press & Open Access!!!

Jordan Gans-Morse (tw @J_GansMorse / #NUResearch) and Aaron Erlich (@aaronerlich.bsky.social lich.bsky.social / @mcgill.ca ca), "Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption?" via AJPS @ajpseditor.bsky.social #polisky doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

1 year ago 5 3 1 1
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That’s awesome. Lemme know if you want me to give any feedback.

1 year ago 1 0 0 0

Has anybody tried Google Scholar’s new PDF reader?Any good? #polisky

1 year ago 1 0 0 0

I second this motion!

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