LinkedIn once again aceing my obvious desire for a new job (this is my last job, full stop) and also career change.

Ban this sick filth; it's late April for goodness' sake.

A great read (bias as an Associate Editor of said publication notwithstanding).

I didn't realise this existed - so thank you (as a birch pollen sufferer!) !

Slumped on the sofa with chest infection. How do you get better? By calculating RONI using moving climatology of the same day of the year for the last 30 years, of course. Anyhow: that ONI is ticking up towards 0.5; RONI keeping it a little more in perspective...(subject to quality control).

Always nice to have a reminder of how utterly stupid 2024 was and what 2027 can aspire to if we have any post-Nino warmth...

In Korea, when the president declared martial law after midnight and erected barricades in Seoul, congressional reps from all parties ran into the streets, yanked ak47s from the army at the barricades, broke down the locked door to Congress, repealed the martial law order, and arrested the president

@nicobruneau.bsky.social Wondering whether your model has a sense for how rare a 3.5c El Nino is in the ensemble simulations?

Well there's a novel bot account. Avatar of attractive lady who seems to have a thing for Richards. Straight into the bozo bin...

Thanks Michael !

Now we're talking

Big ENSO numbers, but would be interested to see this a) from the Relative ONI perspective and with a more standard (1991-2020?) anomaly base? If anyone knows whether someone already is doing this for the C3S / ECMWF seasonal forecasts, I'd be interested to see the link !

It's all distraction from / it's the new "I can end the Ukraine war in 24 hours"

Is the "we've nearly completed our mission in Iran" the new "I can end the Ukraine war in 24 hours"?

If you're working in the climate science space, please sign and share this open letter calling out the insanity of exploiting more oil & gas when we need to eradicate dangerous fossil fuels.

Letter here: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Sign here: forms.gle/DexNszLJjaRe...

Pls share far & wide!

One of those days in Deal today. Fortunate showing friends around to miss a couple of properly chunky showers.

I just posted a chart. Chill out, champ.

Reform once again trying the Trump playbook. We can't possibly have lost!

My memory's so bad I had to dig out stuff online - so fairly "burny" that year...

I've run it back further now to 1995 and there's a 1998 in there in that end-of-Nino warmth.

I can't guarantee it - the chart saturates at 20...!

Of course that should read 20 Mar 26 at the end there...

Yes! Oh for an edit function...

You're welcome to distrust anything I post.

One more: here's the top 16 days with anomalous warmth in the US since around 1997 - based on the anomalies relative to the mean from 1997-2025. The sheer extent _and_ magnitude of the anomalies on 20 Mar 25...

Giving the US Temperature Anomalies the SST graph treatment. Plotting the cumulative sum of the average daily US-wide anomaly (using data averaged over 2.5 x 2.5 deg grid). 2026 off to a flyer; just about the warmest since 2000 (anomaly w.r.t 2000-2025).

...it seems as though the largest anomalies are very often in and around the "elbow season" of late autumn, early spring...

Slowly downloading ERA5 TMax values. Am creating a monthly average daily TMax (in local timezones) to get a daily anomaly value. Have summed this value across a crude conterminous US box. And lo, this March warm spell (for data post 2006) has the highest anomalously warm day so far...

Let's see if we can beat last year's frequency (dramatic eyeroll) and associated chilly misery....

Must be April: in comes that easterly...