One Nation's strength in SA leaves Liberals floundering. It should spook Labor, too Rival Liberal factions are already offering wildly contradictory prognoses as to what went on in South Australia. But the strength of Pauline Hanson's party in working-class suburbs also offers a…

As predicted, the Liberals capitulated in the South Australian election. But as election analyst @pollbludger.bsky.social writes, One Nation's strong showing offers a warning to Labor as well. www.crikey.com.au/2026/03/23/s...

The Liberals have made a late rally in Morphett after doing quite a lot better at the electorate's early voting centre than they did on election day. Now lineball. pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

Not I know it seems to be working, a plug for the Poll Bludger's South Australian election live results system: www.pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.

Works for me

Big losers: mooted future ALP leader Meaghan Scanlon, whose seat of Gaven becomes borderline unwinnable, and Katter's Australian Party, which stands to lose one of the two seats left to it after its Hinchinbrook by-election defeat

Queensland state redistribution proposal - The Poll Bludger A Queensland state adds two seats to outer Brisbane and abolishes a seat in North Queensland.

Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...

Queensland state redistribution proposal - The Poll Bludger A Queensland state adds two seats to outer Brisbane and abolishes a seat in North Queensland.

Queensland state redistribution proposal www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...

Hinchinbrook by-election live - The Poll Bludger Live results and commentary from the Queensland state by-election for Hinchinbrook.

After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.

Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor (open thread) - The Poll Bludger Labor's two-party lead back out to its equal widest since the election, though Sussan Ley remains favoured to lead the Liberal Party.

Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...

I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Tasmanian Labor just bought itself an extra year in opposition

Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.

Now it's Labor's turn to "wait for the pre-polls to come in" #tasvotes

Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes

First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...

You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...

That's the plan

Podcast #153: Tasmania’s election landscape Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the latest Tasmanian state polls and go through Tasmania’s five electorates one by one, discussing the race and possible winners…

For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes

Tasmanian election: YouGov poll and election guide - The Poll Bludger A new poll finds Labor well placed to emerge from the Tasmanian state election as largest party, but well short of a majority.

YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...

YouGov: 67-33 to Labor in South Australia - The Poll Bludger A rare South Australian state poll finds Labor on course for one of the biggest landslides in Australian electoral history.

A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...

The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.

Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

Late counting: week three - The Poll Bludger Resolutions imminent for the remaining outstanding lower house seats, which likely just means Bradfield and Calwell.

Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...

Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

They're drowning in it

It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going