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Posts by Economics of War

On the face of it, good problems.

Getting protection for workers is the challenge, particularly for those countries on migration routes where a vast pool of exploitable labour can be drawn upon.

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Maybe he knows that compared to the second quarter, the first will be merely a rounding error.

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And thus the World turns

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Russian Central Bank Governor Warns of Unprecedented Labor Shortage - The Moscow Times Russia is facing a labor shortage for the first time in its modern history, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said Thursday, warning that an overheated economy is driving inflation and complicat...

The Central Bank of #Russia continues to be allowed to deliver uncomfortable economic news, though within limits.

The Kremlin knows the CB needs a minimum level of independence if the the war economy is to be kept alive for as long as possible.

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Wealth accumulation in Belarus declines for fifth consecutive month The National Statistical Committee reported that in January–February, the real incomes of Belarusians increased by 7.2% year-over-year. This growth rate has been declining since October 2025.

The economy of #Belarus continues to show strain, with its structural ties to Russia dragging the economy.

Belarus needs to move away from the Russian economy if it is to build resilience. As much as it pains Minsk, it needs Poland and the Baltics.

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Baltics & Kazakhstan

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Looks like an excuse to move from "little green men" to full throated invasions

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AA vows to take all of Rakhine State by end of next year Arakan Army commander-in-chief Maj-Gen Twan Mrat Naing made the remarks on the anniversary of the group’s founding

Whilst the Arakan Army may well take all of #Myanmar's Rakhine State in the next 20 months, it will be how China reacts to the fall of Kyaukphyu that dictates if they hold it.

The AA needs a working relationship with Beijing and vice versa.

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Burkina Faso’s government is committing war crimes While fighting jihadism, it has killed more civilians than the jihadists themselves

JNMI is having a recruitment bonanza as juntas of the #Sahel kill many more civilians than the Islamists.

The juntas have a strong social media presence, however need to protect their citizens if they want to help their countries.

Their popularity will wane if they preference likes over lives.

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Very good question as allegedly he's moved much of his ill-gotten wealth into family and friends, his father notably, which will leave them hanging.

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Peter Magyar’s Tisza wins Hungary election as Viktor Orban concedes Longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orban has conceded defeat in the country's parliamentary election.

The Hungarian election looks to remove a key blockage of EU funding to #Ukraine, however the question of Slovakia remains.

Whether Fico's anti-Ukraine position is as strident without Orban will become clearer in the coming weeks.

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The #Myanmar Junta needs to subjugate people as, like all juntas, it is unpopular.

Companies in countries susceptible to coups must have contingency plans for the handling of sensitive data once such an event occurs.

6 days ago 1 0 0 0

We only have speculation.

What we do know is that this announcement brought the Epstein files back into sharp focus.

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

Given Russian corporate performance in 2025, it will be intriguing to see which companies are deemed to have made "excess profits".

Funeral parlours, perhaps.

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African Union returning to war-torn nation's capital An AU delegation has visited Sudan to evaluate reopening its Khartoum office Read Full Article at RT.com

The return of international agencies to Khartoum is important for #Sudan, as it suggests the RSF have a materially reduced capacity to return.

Whether this remains the case should South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia fall into conflict is uncertain.

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Russia’s Federal Budget Deficit Blows Past Annual Target in Just 3 Months - The Moscow Times Russia’s federal budget deficit surged past its full-year target in the first three months of 2026, underscored by a sharp decline in energy tax receipts and a double-digit spike in government spending.

Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil & gas, including export infrastructure, is having a material impact on the Kremlin's budget despite high oil prices.

Kinetic sanctions appear to be gaining effectiveness, as #Russia's air defence is losing effectiveness.

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The cessation of fuel exports suggests Ukraine's attacks on refineries are having an impact. Throw in the reduced ability to export crude through attacks on oil export infrastructure and perhaps the anticipated fiscal windfall hasn't materialised.

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Moldova’s PM says unification with Romania becoming increasingly realistic prospect The prospect of unification between the Republic of Moldova and Romania is becoming increasingly relevant, Moldovan Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu ...

#Moldova continues to draw closer to Romania as economic links deepen.

Whilst unification with Romania remains a distant prospect (Bucharest can't afford it), such talk reflects the rapid acceleration of Moldova's departure from Moscow's orbit.

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What is driving the Houthis’ decision-making on joining the Iran war There are two currents within the Houthis: one favouring caution, and another favouring commitment to allies.

The Houthis have the ability to increase global economic pain significantly by attacking shipping in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait between #Yemen and Djibouti.

The USA's sudden pause in Iran reduces the chances of this happening.

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Whilst there is plenty of schadenfreude, it should be noted these people are privileged; they were never going to join the War.

The question is more one of how those who fill the Russian ranks feel about this, or are they sufficiently impoverished that it doesn't greatly impact their lives?

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Oil revenues reach 853 million dinars in March, driven entirely by crude oil About 853 million dinars in royalties and taxes were collected from oil concession and production-sharing contracts in March, totaling 852.759 million dinars. Crude oil accounted for the entire revenu...

High oil prices are providing a boon for #Libya in more ways than one.

The desperately needed funds are one aspect, however renewed interest from the international community in the peaceful unification of the country is another.

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The #Myanmar Junta's control of the primary trade route to Thailand will be a blow to the financial position of the Karen forces fighting against it.

It is unclear if the route is safe enough for traders to use with confidence.

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Ukraine asked to ease attacks on Russian oil refineries amid Iran war price surge, Budanov says "We are receiving certain signals about this," Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, told Bloomberg.

If what Budanov says is true, then #Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are sufficient to influence world prices, which means they are having a material impact on the Kremlin's finances.

Attacking Russian oil is shortening the War.

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Captain Ibrahim Traoré says Burkina Faso must 'forget' about democracy Capt Ibrahim Traoré, who seized power in 2023, says democratic rule would not work for his country.

Despite sharply declining security conditions in Burkina Faso, Traore remains popular across much of the #Sahel.

His junta benefits from high gold prices, however needs to improve agriculture if it is to have any chance to contain the insurgency.

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

Impressive, as tanks matter.

Ships don't fill up straight from the pipe.

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US eases Belarus sanctions as Trump says he'll help US farmers impacted by Iran war The Trump administration says it's eased restrictions on a group of Belarus-linked financial and potash companies.

The blockage of the Straits of Hormuz is a boon for #Belarus as farmers in the US find themselves short of fertilizer (urea being exported from Qatar).

This may provide an avenue for Minsk to obtain further substantive sanctions relief from an increasingly skeptical US administration.

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Thoughts and prayers

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At the very least make your joke terminate when it reaches the international dateline, as for the majority of the World it is the 2nd of April.

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North Korean hackers bug software used by thousands of US companies in potential crypto heist attempt | CNN Politics Suspected North Korean hackers have bugged a software package that has been used by thousands of US companies in a major supply-chain attack that could take months to recover from, security experts sa...

#NorthKorea continues to operate one of the World's most sophisticated and successful crypto theft operations.

It is less asymmetric warfare and more adoption of structured criminal activity as part of Pyongyang's fiscal framework.

It is economically rational, if morally defunct.

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Residents flee Sudan's Blue Nile state as RSF and allies mass near Geissan Residents flee Geissan in Sudan's Blue Nile as RSF masses - Sudan Tribune Civilians are fleeing Geissan for Roseires in Sudan's Blue Nile region as RSF and SPLM-N forces prepare for an assault on the town.

The SPLM-North's push into Blue Nile State via Ethiopia threatens vital agricultural industry and the Roseires Dam, the source of approximately 10% of #Sudan's power.

SPLM-N appear aligned with RSF for reasons of convenience rather than ideology.
sudantribune.com/article/312195

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