Some crash reports collect driver distraction as a field, but I don't particularly trust it. An NDS has in-car cameras watching drivers all the time, so we can actually see what they were doing. NHTSA should run this continuously for 500 or so cars, like the Nielson ratings for drivers.
What are the biggest reasons pedestrian deaths have risen in the US? After digging into that question for years, I don’t think there is a smoking gun. The US situation is a perfect storm, with high-speed arterials, distraction from phones, and big SUVs. In Europe, roadways are much slower, which provides a level of protection. If you have a big SUV on a street where you’re driving 15 miles per hour and you hit someone, they’re not going to die. The same goes if you’re driving 15 mph and using a smartphone when you strike someone. But in the US, we don’t have those kinds of safeguards because our roads are faster. Also, there is a lot of evidence pointing to suburbanization of poverty being an important factor. Historically, poverty in the US was centralized in the urban core, but over the last couple of decades it has expanded to the suburbs, where around half of all poor people now live. But many suburbs are not built for walking, biking and public transportation; they’re built assuming everybody is going to drive. So now you have lower-income populations living there who might not have motor vehicles. They need to walk, and they’re doing it in a suburban setting that is not designed to accommodate them. From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/what-s-really-driving-the-pedestrian-safety-crisis-in-us-cities
This is a pretty comprehensive answer as to why ped deaths are increasing IMO. The smartphone / vehicle-screen issue is probably the easiest to address, and we REALLY need more data on this. The big NHTSA naturalistic driving study ended in 2016; phones have gotten much more distracting since then!
NTSB's research division hasn't published anything in 3.5 years. Are they still active?
I'm not being flippant - this is a dream job. www.ntsb.gov/safety/safet...
VDOT is hiring an Assistant Division Administrator for Planning and Performance in VDOT’s Traffic Operations Division. This role is directly above the CAV Program Manager in the org chart, and is heavily involved on automated driving systems. etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
One thing I'd like to know is that if it was only open to institutions, would there even be any interest? Outside of a handful of markets, I'm guessing no. In a zero sum game, you need dumb money.
From the linked paper: "Terrorism futures would have two key differences from most financial markets. First, prediction markets are typically very thin compared with most financial markets, with relatively little money changing hands. All else equal, this makes them very poor places to speculate on sabotage. Second, financial markets are typically tied to large economic aggregates, which are hard for individuals to reliably influence. Terrorism futures markets, on the other hand, would trade on events that small groups of people could substantially influence. If terrorism futures markets remain very thin, we should not worry about funding terrorism. Police regularly pay informants small amounts to tell about crimes, even though informants are typically involved themselves in other crimes. While this provides a small subsidy to the criminal class, the information gained helps crime fighting and more than makes up for the small subsidy. We would happily pay a bank robber $10 to tell us where he will strike next. Paying a similar price for terrorism information could also be a good deal.
Weirdly, I recall that was an argument for these things back when DARPA was kicking around terrorism markets. Sure a terrorist might bet on themselves, but as long as they didn't make too much money it was fine. See the section "moral hazards." mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/rea...
DJT Jr. ofc. bsky.app/profile/noah...
Also Mick Mulvaney's group, while being against prediction markets, is almost certainly funded by sportsbooks and/or casinos seeing as they only have a problem with sports markets. bsky.app/profile/wire...
Two Former Congressmen Join Prediction Markets Lobbying Group Posted on: January 13, 2026, 01:29h. Last updated on: January 13, 2026, 01:38h. Avatar photo Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions. Democrat Patrick Maloney joining as president and CEO Republican Patrick McHenry on board as a senior advisor The Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), the newly formed lobbying group for that budding industry, said Tuesday that two former congressmen are joining the coalition. From: https://www.casino.org/news/two-former-congressmen-join-prediction-markets-lobbying-group/
This was just today's, there are bigger fish.
Stephanie Cutter @stefcutter Excited to advise @Kalshi as they continue to dominate the prediction market space. They're one of the fastest growing companies in the US — and one of the rare tech platforms that take a regulatory first approach. From: https://x.com/stefcutter/status/2039791449554719031
![From wikipedia: Stephanie Cutter (born October 22, 1968) is an American communications and political consultant. She served as an advisor to President Barack Obama, President Bill Clinton, First Lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris.[1] She previously worked in campaign and communications roles for other prominent Democrats including Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.[2]
In 2013, she co-founded Precision Strategies, a political consulting firm, with fellow Obama campaign alumni Jen O'Malley Dillon and Teddy Goff. During the 2020 election, she was producer of the all-virtual Democratic National Convention, and following Joe Biden's victory, she was tapped to act as producer of the 2021 inauguration, which included mostly virtual festivities.[3]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tfondz7k6jhvs6hv7t7dhjti/bafkreif4q6qgroohvjhbxcevgdtt7f6eba6wkhqeurm3anwvhsj7tdqgse)
From wikipedia: Stephanie Cutter (born October 22, 1968) is an American communications and political consultant. She served as an advisor to President Barack Obama, President Bill Clinton, First Lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris.[1] She previously worked in campaign and communications roles for other prominent Democrats including Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.[2] In 2013, she co-founded Precision Strategies, a political consulting firm, with fellow Obama campaign alumni Jen O'Malley Dillon and Teddy Goff. During the 2020 election, she was producer of the all-virtual Democratic National Convention, and following Joe Biden's victory, she was tapped to act as producer of the 2021 inauguration, which included mostly virtual festivities.[3]
All these are going to age so badly once we realize prediction markets are the cigarettes of the 2020s.
What I will forever be trying to understand is why we had the biggest drop during the 2008 recession, and the biggest increase during Covid.
I suspect it was due to shifting demographics of drivers, but I've never had the data to prove it. I'm guessing insurance companies could in an afternoon.
Chart showing fatal crash counts and per-mile rates from 1995 to 2025, recreated from NHTSA data.
https://ourworldindata.org/britain-safest-roads-history
NHTSA's 2025 fatal crash data shows another big drop. Great news, but the continuing story is that we hit that per-mile rate back in 2011. 15 years of tech and we're flat, while every other developed country is stacking gains.
Any tips on nudging NHTSA's FOIA office? They stall on the simplest request like no other federal agency. I've been trying to get the Tesla robotaxi letter for months.
Big robot outage today in Wuhan. Talk of system/fleetwide hard failure, ie system crash, many robots stopped in place/lane, some got crashed into, many ppl stranded.
Prob fewer robots but harder failures w worse MRC than Waymo's in SF last Dec. Steep gradient decent to road hazard.
Video & news 🧵
Should I personally invest in the account? Financial experts advise people considering opening a Trump Account to accept the government's $1,000 contribution — money is money, after all — but to think twice about putting in their own money. The reason: Other types of savings plans — such as a 529 plan, a tax-advantaged savings account for education expenses, or a custodial brokerage account, an investment account for a minor managed by an adult — can be more financially advantageous. "The gift is the biggest part of this. It really is free money," Madeline Brown, a wealth and financial policy expert at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C., told CBS News. "It's a nice perk for parents with children who qualified," added Kate Ashford, a wealth management specialist at personal finance company NerdWallet. "But it's not a slam dunk, and it's not going to do as much for you as other accounts." She cited the accounts' contribution caps and more limited investment tax advantages as drawbacks compared to 529s or custodial brokerage accounts. (all screenshots from: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-accounts-kids-explained/ )
"The only advantage is your earnings grow tax-free over the years, but you pay the ordinary income tax rate — not, say, a capital gains tax rate," Ashford said. Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian public policy research firm, thinks there are better ways to set money aside for children, such as in a 529 or standard IRA account. "Generally speaking, parents should not put their own money into a Trump Account," he told CBS News. "The primary use case for the accounts is to receive free money from sources like the government or private donations." For example, Michael and Susan Dell on Tuesday said they would donate a total of $6.25 billion — or $250 apiece — to millions of kids in Trump Accounts.
The Trump Accounts have "many more strings attached and complicated rules that make it not an attractive overall investment vehicle," Michel of the Cato Institute said.
As we approach tax time, reminder that the Cato Institute AND the Urban Institute say the Trump Accounts are only good for the free money and that people shouldn't contribute due to the 18-year lockup and bizarre tax treatment.
It's a way for the wealthy to give $90,000 to their kids' retirement.
Lmao the reason this leaked was because he wanted to buy IDEF, a totally illiquid BlackRock fund that trades ~$100k a day, instead of ITA which trades hundred of millions, so he had his brokers call up BlackRock and ask for a direct creation under his name. There’s so many layers of stupidity here.
Chart showing percentage of fatal crashes between 2019 and 2023 where the driver with the highest BAC was a) 0.00 or b) greater than or equal to 0.08. Pulled from NHTSA's FARS database.
Between 6am and 2pm, about 1 out of 10 fatal crashes have a driver with BAC > 0.08 (legally impaired in every state). At 1am on a weeknight, it's 1 out of 2. On weekend nights, it's almost 2 out of 3.
This might be the first position posted by NHTSA since Trump took office. It's definitely one of the first 10 or so, and is currently the only open position.
NHTSA is hiring technical experts in the Office of Automation Safety. This was posted exactly 6 weeks after Sen. Cantwell pointed out NHTSA had only 4 people in this office regulating a $60B industry.
www.youtube.com/live/6bm7f95...
www.usajobs.gov/job/861513300
A Waymo robot reportedly rearended at:
Motel 6, Great Highway, San Francisco
It is illegal to stop anywhere on that side of that block. The pole where this appears to have happened has a No Stopping Anytime sign. Waymo's never disclosed an illegal stop in a crash report.
OP: reddit.SupergurlKara
They reason for Selig's bizarre argument is that they are pushing for unlimited investments in these markets. If sanely capped at $1000 per person, then they are only useful for information, not as a hedge. So he needs a high dollar example, regardless of plausibility.
This is such a banger quote. Morals aside, how it would even work? You are dying of cancer, bet "no" on a drug trial so that if it fails, you die but with a little extra money? Or you bet "yes" using the winnings to pay for treatment, remembering that if it fails you both die and lose money?
“This is a real opportunity for everyday Americans to be able to manage certain risk,” Selig said. “I do view this as something that democratizes access to our derivatives market.” Here’s the example Selig posed to us: “Say somebody has a condition. They want to be able to manage the potential risk of having a future treatment or medical costs. They can enter into a prediction market and place a bet on the likelihood of something passing a drug trial.” From: https://punchbowl.news/article/vault/prediction-markets-cftc-champion/
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on managing risk. They regulate prediction markets.
“Marco, we need you to sell 10 million crude deltas today”
Coplan acknowledged the controversy but argued prediction markets provide real-world utility in high-stakes situations. “When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’ and I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s really that popular over there?’” he added. “That’s very powerful. That’s an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.” From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-07/polymarket-founder-says-war-bets-are-facing-growing-resistance
Polymarket's CEO on "value."
The bedroom on the DHS private jet is nicer than the bedrooms in many working Americans' homes.
This is an unnecessary, disgusting misuse of our taxpayer dollars.
There is no feasible explanation as to why ANY public official would need this level of luxury.
Polymarket main site is banned in the U.S. and isn't subject to any of this, hence their many death markets. The US version of Polymarket presumably doesn't have them, but it's invite-only (and iphone-only) so I can't check.
It's interesting why Kalshi has a death carve out at all. Technically 17 CFR § 40.11 prohibits war and assassination markets, but the enabling statute, 7 U.S.C. § 7a-2(c)(5)(C)(i), only says CFTC "may" prohibit. It's legally gray, with Kalshi trying to play it safe and creating a mess.
To be clear, Mulvaney's group is laser focused on sports contracts. They seem to be fine with alien invasion, Greenland, Superbowl halftime markets. That means they are probably funded by state-regulated sportsbooks.
Which is fine, whatever. But this is not a moral crusade here.
Their "issues" page which has specifics for every topic except consumer safety where they have the default latin gibberish. https://www.caseforconsumers.org/issues/
Consumer Action for a Strong Economy is part of Mulvaney's new anti-prediction market coalition Gambling is Not Investing. CASE advocates "free-market" solutions to consumer protection. Their About page lists consumer safety last AND with Lorem Ipsum.
