“The illicit tobacco market is not an issue that policing can now ‘arrest our way out of’”

‘The current cost of legal tobacco products in comparison to the illegal product, is also a driver .. ‘

Police Federation of Australia
@algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Wow!
‘Illicit tobacco consumption share & trajectory’. Australia. From: Phillip Morris Limited

@algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Know what’s really crazy? Health establishment hate smoke-free nicotine products made by Big Tobacco but OK with smoke-free nicotine products made by Big Pharma! Ideology gone nuts! @algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @crikey.com.au

Can law enforcement ⬇️ illicit trade cigarettes & vapes? At best reduction likely only marginal IMHO. Demand extra strong. LE effect on illicit drug supply has been only marginal @algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social

Think more severe penalties, ⬆️$$s law enforcement ⬇️black markets much? Please provide examples where this worked. Lousy policy. Great political strategy. Authorities end up eventually accepting reality. Many, many examples @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Exaggerating risks & minimising benefits very common in prohibition/quasi-prohibition & works for a while until it doesn’t. Then long lasting reputational damage @jmenezes.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Agree. Many young Australians have worked out they’re being lied to by authorities re vaping just as they did with cannabis. @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social

Psychoactive drugs are overwhelmingly a demand, not a supply problem. If people can’t get what they want legally, then most will get what they want some other way @algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

Wow! Compound Annual Growth Rates: Heat Not Burn (ie heated tobacco products) 48%, nicotine pouches 21% , vapes 9% & cigarettes -8%! Only one way this can end! @algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @publichealthaus.bsky.social @crikey.com.au

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between e-cigarette use and cigarette abstinence or changes in continued cigarette smoking among individuals who smoke cigarettes - Harm Reduct... Aims With recent marked increase in e-cigarette use, potential associations between e-cigarette use and combustible cigarette smoking are an important public health issue. Following AMSTAR 2 and PRISM...

“Evidence suggests that the use of nicotine-containing e-cigarettes supports cigarette smoking cessation & reduction among individuals who smoke cigarettes regularly .. ” @algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Taxing Harmful Habits Taxes on smoking, drinking, and sugar should better align with the harm they cause

International Monetary Fund says Australia’s taxing of nicotine products is misaligned. But Bloomberg Narrative followers think they know better than IMF @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social
www.imf.org/en/publicati...

Thank you Mr Speaker, my question is to the Member for Hindmarsh. How long will you give for your policies to ⬇️illicit cigarette & vape trade, ⬇️extortion of cig retailers, ⬇️firebombings before you ⬇️cig excise & ensure vapes >available than cigs? @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

Australia govt policy 15 years ALP,LNP,health establishment:
•⬆️smoking✅
•huge ⬆️illicit trade cigs & vapes✅
•rampant extortion✅
•⬆️insurance cig retailers✅
•⬆️firebombings,homicides✅
•⬇️govt revenue cig excise✅
@algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social

My predictions re Australia’s policy: 1) ⬆️ law enforcement re illicit cigarettes benefits minimal but ⬆️unintended consequences; 2) no ⬇️illicit cig trade until govt ⬇️cig excise; 3) govt eventually forced ⬆️vape availability. Yes? @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Australia’s smoking rates fell for decades. But that’s changed – and here’s why Early evidence suggests the flood of cheap cigarettes could have pushed Australia’s smoking rates up for the first time since the 1990s.

Congratulations to Australia’s tobacco control echo chamber for ⬆️ smoking rates in Australia! @jamomartin.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @mikedaube.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social
www.smh.com.au/national/aus...

If you want to boost smoking rates, see govt revenue from cig excise plummet, help Big Crime expand its black market, ask Australia’s tobacco control echo chamber how its done! @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social

Why would anyone suggest Australia has a bit of a problem with excessive cigarette excise? Beats me? @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

1/2 Pope et al evaluated “an e-cigarette starter kit and referral to a local stop smoking service as a stop smoking intervention in UK emergency departments, they found that though absolute abstinence rates declined over time in both groups (as would be expected), ..”

Teen Vaping in NSW: What the Data Really Shows https://www.cancercouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Turning-the-Tide-on-NSW-Teen-Vaping-March-2026.pdf

Teen Vaping in NSW: What the Data Really Shows

@alexwodak.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social @crikey.com.au @squigglyrick.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...

Australia could learn a lot from New Zealand’s more effective policies on nicotine vapes. But does Australian government and health establishment have what it takes to admit they got it wrong? @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Vaping: emerging harms health systems can’t ignore Vaping was sold as the safe alternative to smoking. The evidence is now telling a more complicated – and more worrying – story.

The Conversation AU continues to publish articles claiming serious adverse effects of vaping are about to be, or could be, discovered anytime now. @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social
theconversation.com/vaping-emerg...

Great article Ides of March Sunday Age/Sun Herald on cigarette excise cxxxxxxxxxk & jihad anti vapes. As govt ramped up excise illicit market exploded. Billion $ subsidy to organised crime! How about trying some pragmatism? @jamomartin.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

Federal Budget papers predict cigarette excise revenue shortfall almost $10 billion 2028-29 lol! Australia paying high price for letting extremists determine policy @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @jamomartin.bsky.social

Did you know in 2016 Philip Morris International earned 0% of its revenue from smoke-free products but by Q4 2025 they accounted for 42% of its revenue? @chancethegardener.bsky.social @jgitchell.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Philip Morris International global cigarette sales fell from 927 billon in 2012 to 617 billion in 2024!’ This was made possible by increasing sales and revenue from smoke-free nicotine products @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social

Disappointed no Hall of Fame anti vape zealot got an Oscar this year. Keeping a straight face while proclaiming vapes at least as dangerous as cigarettes deserves an Oscar! @jmenezes.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

If Australia’s cigarette & vape policy was considered a success, can you imagine what failure would look like? @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

2/2 “The good news is that many of these new products, while still harmful, reduce exposure to toxicants. It therefore makes sense to tax them at a lower rate, which can be adjusted as research becomes available and revenue needs evolve.”
@algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

[revised] New in DADR: Study found US adults who smoke deadly cigarettes were more likely to consider switching to much safer nicotine pouches if they had certain characteristics or had already tried quitting smoking. @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

Well worth listening to Perth GP Dr Joe Kosterich commenting on Australia’s train crash policies on cigarette excise and quasi prohibition of vaping. He’s absolutely right on both counts @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social