For reasons that are certainly unrelated to grant applications, does anyone know of (ideally with some evidence) uses of tools I have contributed to (scoringutils, epinow2, epinowcast, epidist, primarycensored, episoon, epinow, censoreddistributions ...) from different parts of the world?
This podcast is very important to me because it's the only one I listen to that overlaps with my research interests enough for me to be annoying about it at work instead of just at home.
Confession
Brilliant, I thought as much extrapolating from the Atlantic slushies article but it's great to have confirmation.
RE the photo, what's the Bogost stance on Dole Whip?
1/ Hiring: 2️⃣ Senior Academic Leaders in Global Health Data Science & Mathematical Modelling. #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪
Collab between
🔹Data Science & Computational Modelling Unit (DSCMU) at Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Research Programme (MLW)
🔹Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) at University of Liverpool
Guy inventing 2FA: Yes so to start a day's work on the second most distracting thing humans have invented, I'll just need you to momentarily divert your attention to the first most distracting thing.
Also pretty buzzed that this is the first thing to see the light of day with my Manchester affiliation and my first as last author - as with all academic career milestones I will celebrate by thinking very hard about whether I'm ready to buy a corduroy blazer.
Interesting point for the methods nerds (who else is reading the comments on a quote post of an arXiv preprint?) is that our two-step MCMC is loosely inspired by tree classifier fitting methods - our household moves are analogous to branching/pruning and the parameter moves to setting leaf values.
Really pleased with how this one has come out. We take common output formats for household-based field epi studies, see how much structure we can impute from them, and make the case for reporting case and contact numbers stratified by household size.
1/ 🎤 Today's @juniper-network.bsky.social seminar talk was by Matthew Ryan on "Sometimes BaD modelling is a good idea"
💻 Behaviour and disease (BaD) models: Allow for adaptive human response to intervention uptake & abandonment governed by psychological factors (e.g. perception of illness threat).
Can fully believe though that mixing patterns are doing some/most of the work here!
It should happen even without behaviour change because the population-level effect of vaccine is faster than linear in uptake, so burden shifts from e.g. 20y to 30y much faster than from 10y to 20y. There'll be a big range of uptakes that give average age 10-20, but a tiny range for e.g. 50-60.
Yep, it's required age verification since the Online Safety Act came into force last summer. Bluesky apparently don't feel they can host a private messaging system under the conditions of the act.
"Ah The Big Dance. From the bubbles to the brackets, everyone loves The Big Dance" - every American, I assume.
Another classic "we know British people are doing these puzzles and we do not care" installment of Strands today. I feel like I am solving a wordsearch in a dream and my subconscious mind can't reliably stick to a theme.
Playing the Pokémon Leaf Green rerelease and I am now fully convinced no one involved knew what a geometric distribution was. "Just draw a random number every time the player presses a button. This will surely make for satisfying gameplay."
Please circulate! Are you or do you know someone from groups particularly affected by Mpox, & those less likely to be heard by researchers? We are working with @thelovetankcic.bsky.social to organise workshops seeking to improve modelling response.
www.coproductioncollective.co.uk/news/commet-...
Statistics life hack: stop wasting time calculating confidence intervals, start bounding all your predictions between the plot of Terminator 2: Judgement Day and free chocolate for everyone forever.
Closing March 1- apply for a Research Fellow position in modelling infectious diseases to reduce inequities in health outcomes in Africa! Join a multidisciplinary 4 year project with me at UCL and partners in Zimbabwe, Zambia, The Gambia, South Africa, Kenya and the UK. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
Exciting new Research Fellow position in modelling infectious diseases to reduce inequities in health outcomes in Africa! Join a multidisciplinary 4 year project with me at UCL and partners in Zimbabwe, Zambia, The Gambia, South Africa, Kenya and the UK. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
New Preprint! We look at HIV transmission outside of and within stable partnerships. It turns out that the pair model can have many useful results derived analytically in closed form, and the general numerical methodology should be useful in other contexts.
arxiv.org/abs/2602.04638
🦅 What’s driving the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) across Europe?
Using machine learning and wild bird ecology, a new study from @L_Brierley & colleagues reveals a shift towards year-round risk in cold, low-lying regions of NW Europe.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A study funded through a partnership with CSL Seqirus has been published in Scientific Reports. The research maps #BirdFlu risk across Europe using environmental AND wild bird data. Read more: www.thepandemicinstitute.org/news/study-u... @liambrierley.bsky.social #AvianInfluenza #H5N1
PhD opportunity in @mche-uom.bsky.social looking at the economic impact of risk prediction in endometrial cancer diagnostics, closing January 15th:
www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
Possible example of the principle that if someone gets something wrong in your own area of expertise, you should exercise caution when they make claims outside of that area. I read Sacks' books as a maths undergrad and thought the prime numbers stuff sounded iffy, but brushed it off at the time.
Get on my level, I can not be trusted to send an email without making it a calendar event.
So, some people here are concerned with the sentence in this document that, "it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so" - what does it this mean? 🧵/1
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
Conservation, genomics, ecology, *and* bats all in the same PhD!
If anyone's teaching an intro to probability course and needs a good example of something non-Markovian, I bought a pack of clothes pegs in 2020 and half of them have spontaneously exploded within the past month.