Will the Becerra Surge Save or Sink California Democrats? The former HHS secretary’s stock is rising in the suddenly lively governor’s race. But Republicans could still pull off a November lockout.

People seem to be getting excited about Xavier Becerra's recent surge in the California governor's race. But unless his surge continues, or someone else emerges as red-hot, the threat of a Republican lock-out isn't going away. nymag.com/intelligence...

Labor Secretary Out Over Good Old-Fashioned Scandal Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi were run off after a lot of high-profile MAGA drama. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s sins were more conventional.

With Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation under duress, the number of women in Trump's Cabinet has now dropped from 5 to 2. That's like a Republican Cabinet of the 1980s, which should please the misogynist wing of the MAGA Movement. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump Doesn’t Know How Long the War He Dodged Was The president is distorting history in his attempt to secure unlimited time to end his unpopular war against Iran.

Trump exaggerating the length of the Vietnam War may seem relatively minor compared to thousands of his other falsehoods, but it annoyed me nonetheless: nymag.com/intelligence...

Looks Like Trump Is Throwing Cornyn to the Right-Wing Wolves The four-term Texas senator’s Washington friends have about given up on a Trump endorsement, which could even go to his bitter rival Ken Paxton.

Republicans may have finally tired of spending a fortune to save Cornyn with the likelihood that they'll then have to spend a fortune to save Paxton. Will Trump deliver the coup de grace to the incumbent? nymag.com/intelligence...

Can Newsom Clean Up California’s Messy Governor’s Race? Eric Swalwell’s implosion has revived fears of Republicans winning both general-election spots. Democrats may need the incumbent to step in.

A sort of strategic guide to CA Democrats' options in a suddenly wild and messy gubernatorial primary: nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump Picked the Wrong Pope to Bully Pope Leo is very popular, even among Catholic conservatives who strongly disliked his predecessor.

Headline of this piece says it all: nymag.com/intelligence...

The GOP Needs Discipline, Gets Trump’s Chaos Instead Republicans in Congress need a lot of focus to enact their 2026 agenda. But Trump keeps veering into self-destructive tangents.

So putting aside the individual issues involved, if Trump can't or won't crush opposition to the Thune effort to end the DHS shutdown and the adjacent focus on ICE outrages, there's little hope for the GOP getting its act together for the midterms. nymag.com/intelligence...

I am not a fan of libertarians like Chase Oliver (you could look it up), but this tweet made my day: x.com/ChaseForLibe...

If you think Trump is reckless now, think about what he'll be like if he stops giving a damn about the midterms: nymag.com/intelligence...

Polls Show Even Republicans Are Souring On Israel The once-strong bipartisan support for Israel is gone, and it’s not just a matter of Democrats becoming alienated by Netanyahu and his policies.

New data from Pew shows alienation from Israel rising among Republicans--particularly younger Republicans--and reaching super-majority levels with Democrats. It's going to get worse if Israel is perceived as undermining a ceasefire with Iran. nymag.com/intelligence...

What Is the Iran War About? Trump Still Has No Clue. The Iran cease-fire only solves problems created by the war itself, making Trump’s original decision to attack even more indefensible.

Trying to explain what happened late yesterday, a colleague of mine said Trump didn't give a damn what actually happened after the "ceasefire" was signaled: "He just swerved for the off-ramp." And now he's claiming total victory. nymag.com/intelligence...

What Is the Iran War About? Trump Still Has No Clue. The Iran cease-fire only solves problems created by the war itself, making Trump’s original decision to attack even more indefensible.

Today seems to be emerging as a competition between Team Trump's bizarre claims of total victory and an ongoing collapse of the ceasefire. nymag.com/intelligence...

What Is the Iran War About? Trump Still Has No Clue. The Iran cease-fire only solves problems created by the war itself, making Trump’s original decision to attack even more indefensible.

Yesterday began as an apocalypse and then became Taco Tuesday. Hard to articulate what a fiasco it was, but I tried: nymag.com/intelligence...

Vance and Putin Work Hard to Save Viktor Orbán The ties between Trump and Iran’s ally in Russia are nowhere clearer than in their mutual support for Hungary’s embattled strongman.

Really interesting that just as Trump is threatening Iran with genocide, his vice president is working with Iran's allies in Moscow to rescue the regime of Viktor Orban, the far right's great hope for the destabilization of our former allies in Europe. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump’s Governor Endorsement Kills GOP’s California Dream Trump gave Steve Hilton a big primary boost. But, weirdly, he probably ensured that California won’t have a Republican governor.

Trump endorsement of Hilton does also greatly reduce the slim possibility of a Democratic lock-out, too. But race is more than likely falling into the familiar pattern of one Dem and one Republican in the general election, with the former guaranteed victory in November. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump’s Governor Endorsement Kills GOP’s California Dream Trump gave Steve Hilton a big primary boost. But, weirdly, he probably ensured that California won’t have a Republican governor.

Democrats weren't sure how to deal with the threat of a Republican lock-out in the California governor's race. Trump probably just solved it for them. nymag.com/intelligence...

From Pope Leo's Easter Message: "On this day of celebration, let us abandon every desire for conflict, domination, and power, and implore the Lord to grant his peace to a world ravaged by wars and marked by a hatred and indifference that make us feel powerless in the face of evil."

Trump-loving Christians should take a long look at how the 47th president chose to commemorate Easter Sunday, marking the resurrection of the Prince of Peace. Won't link to his rant, but most of you know what I'm talking about.

How Democrats Can Avoid Disaster in the California Governor’s Race The top two primary and scattered Democratic field could guarantee a Republican governor. Here are four strategies to prevent that.

Sure would be a nasty undertow to a Democratic wave in November if a Trump shill becomes governor of California. Here are four ways Democrats might avert that catastrophe: nymag.com/intelligence...

Voters Who Dislike Both Parties Are Turning Against Trump Trump has traditionally done well with “I hate everybody” voters. But polling suggests they may help Democrats win in 2026.

Another really bad public opinion sign for Trump and Republicans: Double Haters (the I-Hate-Everybody Vote), in which Trump has always either dominated or broken even, is trending heavily Democratic. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump’s Priority Is Now Militarism, at Home and Abroad The president is focused on extending his mass-deportation programs for years and fighting unpopular wars. It’s not going over well.

In the confusion over DHS, it's being lost that the GOP is doubling down on violent ICE tactics, no longer even talking about guardrails. Between that and Trump's insanely inflated defense budget, everything else the federal government is doing is literally under the gun. nymag.com/intelligence...

Johnson Caves on DHS, But Shutdown Deal Could Unravel Again The Speaker called the Senate-passed deal to reopen DHS “a joke.” Days later, he’s asking House Republicans to back it.

Latest bizarre twist in the DHS shutdown saga could represent a breakthrough...or just another temporary deal that will collapse. If nothing's done until House is back in session, the troglodytes of the House Freedom Caucus will get restive again. nymag.com/intelligence...

With DHS Still Shutdown, GOP Gives Up on Dealmaking After the Senate deal to reopen DHS flopped, Trump and Republicans are are only interested in another totally partisan Big Beautiful Bill.

Now that Republicans want to use reconciliation for everything, they won't be able to assemble a bill that can pass their own caucuses. Will just be a bloated mess with ICE money, war money, tariffs, Medicaid cuts, the SAVE America abomination, you name it. Wait and see. nymag.com/intelligence...

With DHS Still Shutdown, GOP Gives Up on Dealmaking After the Senate deal to reopen DHS flopped, Trump and Republicans are are only interested in another totally partisan Big Beautiful Bill.

Bitterly amusing to watch Senate Republicans blame Democrats for House Republicans stabbing them in the back on DHS funding. nymag.com/intelligence...

DHS Is Still Shut Down Because Extremists Own Mike Johnson The Speaker blew up a Senate bill reopening DHS because he didn’t want to wind up like Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted by the Freedom Caucus.

A simple explanation of why Mike Johnson shivved Thune, his party, and his country last Friday: nymag.com/intelligence...

The DHS funding debacle has descended into utter confusion. Unclear where either party is at the moment on the simple idea of putting aside immigration enforcement and reopening the rest of the department.

Trump Blows Up DHS Deal, Chooses ICE Airport Chaos Instead The president is throwing a tantrum over the SAVE America Act, and American travelers are paying the price.

Sorting out the weekend confusion over DHS, TSA and ICE: Senate Republicans decided to cave on DHS funding, and negotiations between Democrats and Homan on ICE were making some progress. Then Trump blew it all up with another tantrum over his stupid/evil SAVE America Act. nymag.com/intelligence...

Trump Approval Hits New Low — and Iran War Won’t Help If the unpopular and economically damaging conflict drags on, Trump and the GOP are in serious trouble for the midterms.

Trump's job approval hovering above the collapse point that George W. Bush reached after the financial crisis and the final stages of the Iraq disaster. Big question is whether MAGA loyalty creates a floor for Trump even if everything he touches continues to go bad. nymag.com/intelligence...

What makes the SAVE America Act more than a bad joke is that it represents the core MAGA mythology of the Great Replacement Theory, rooted in a 100% delusional belief in massive non-citizen voting. They just won't stop believing it. It's the Protocols of the Elders of Zion of 21st century racism.

Republicans’ SAVE Act Filibuster Stunt Would Backfire Badly MAGA activists want to force a talking filibuster over the SAVE America Act. That should delight Democrats.

What took me some time to realize is that these birds really do believe weeks or months of debating conspiracy theories will red pill Americans on the phantom menace of non-citizen voting. Truth is the popularity of the SAVE America Act is as high as it will ever get. nymag.com/intelligence...