Australian employment has increased by 93k people since the end of last year. So far, we are tracking much better than last year and similar to 2024, but it's highly unlikely that we will continue this momentum for the entire year #ausbiz #auspol
Australia's unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March, with employment rising by 17,900 people.
The most recent RBA forecasts (Feb-26) are for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%, but that will surely be revised higher due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East #auspol #ausbiz
Australian employment has increased by 93k people since the end of last year. So far, we are tracking much better than last year and similar to 2024, but it's highly unlikely that we will continue this momentum for the entire year #ausbiz #auspol
Australia's unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March, with employment rising by 17,900 people.
The most recent RBA forecasts (Feb-26) are for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%, but that will surely be revised higher due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East #auspol #ausbiz
I will note that high-exposure occupations peaked at 40% of job postings in September 2021. That's pandemic and lockdown-driven. Jobs with high-exposure to AI were also very remote-friendly, so they held up much better during those hard lockdowns in 2021.
A lot of speculation about whether AI is coming for our jobs.
In Australia, so far, that hasn't happened.
30% of Aussie job postings are in occupations with high-exposure to AI. It's been steady since mid-2023.
There's nothing in the data pointing towards an AI-driven shift in hiring #ausbiz
Annual growth in household spending has been pretty broad-based.
Services: +5.9%
Goods: +3.5%
Non-discretionary spending up 4.9%, similar to discretionary spending which was 4.5% higher #ausbiz
AI can be seen everywhere, but in the productivity data.
Companies in Australia – and globally for that matter – are betting big that artificial intelligence will turn this around. Clearly, that hasn’t happened yet.
Another dismal quarter for Australian labour productivity. Unchanged in the December quarter and 1% higher than a year ago.
Australian productivity is well down on its peak - which admittedly is artificially high due to the pandemic - but is practically unchanged compared to 8 years ago #auspol
Australia's household savings rate increased to 6.9% in the December quarter - up from 6.1% the previous quarter - to be at its highest level since September 2022.
It's a sign that household budgets aren't as tight as they used to be as we slowly recover from the cost-of-living crisis #auspol
Real GDP per capita rose by 0.4% in the December quarter and is 0.9% higher than a year ago.
We've now had four consecutive quarters of growth, but the measure is still 0.5% below its peak in December 2022 #ausbiz #auspol
The Australian economy expanded by 0.8% in the December quarter - above market expectations - to be 2.6% larger than a year ago.
Annual growth is at its highest level since the March quarter 2023 #ausbiz #auspol
Feels like the Liberal Party is simply rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
While I'm sure Taylor will claw back some insecure white male voters from ON, but if he's the best you've got you are in big trouble #auspol
Nice graph that highlights how much economic uncertainty there is.
The RBA is 70% confident that inflation will fall within the dark blue shaded area over the next couple of years.
But being at the top or bottom of that shaded area would lead to very different monetary policy decisions.
In Australia, labour costs are elevated & productivity growth remains low.
Consequently, unit labour costs - basically the cost of labour required to produce one unit of output - remains too high.
When that's the case, businesses can either absorb the cost or increase prices #ausbiz
A larger-than-normal share of Australian firms report significant labour constraints. Transport, personal services and manufacturing are still well above normal levels #ausbiz
The latest RBA forecasts.
Big upward revisions to both CPI inflation and trimmed mean inflation, which help explain the decision to hike rates.
CPI: 4.2% Jun-26 (previously 3.7%)
Trimmed mean: 3.7% Jun-26 (previously 3.2%)
I'm of the view that inflation will ease faster than the RBA expects.
Gains over the past year have been concentrated in higher-density approvals, with detached housing approvals rising at a more modest pace.
Let's hope this continues because boy do we need it!
Building approvals fell by 14.9% in December, but as you can see on the blue line, the data has been incredibly volatile in recent months.
The trend data suggests that upward momentum has slowed, with building approvals down 0.2% in December. But they were still 6.9% higher than a year ago.
With the unemployment rate finishing the year at 4.1%, it was well below the RBA's forecasts (4.4%).
The RBA updates their forecasts in February. I don't think they'll change the endpoint for 2026 (4.4%), but it might take longer to get there.
Key labour market statistics (Dec-25):
Unemployment rate: 4.1% (from 4.3% in Nov)
Underemployment rate: 5.7% (from 6.1%)
Underutilisation rate: 9.8% (from 10.4%)
Great results, but the large monthly movements suggest to me that we'll reverse back towards trend in the next couple of months
In 2025, Australian employment increased by 165k - with 65k of that coming in December alone - which was well below the 392k gains in 2024.
Employment growth was sluggish and ultimately pretty disappointing #ausbiz #auspol
While Australian employment growth slowed considerably in 2025, the number of vacant jobs fell by just 5.2%.
The number of vacant jobs remains elevated, which will hopefully support employment growth in 2026 (even if that wasn't the case in 2025) #ausbiz
Australian employment growth has slowed considerably this year.
Employment up 130k over the first 11 months of the year, compared to +346k over the same period last year #ausbiz #auspol
While Australia's unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% (due to lower participation), other measures of labour market slack rose.
The underemployment rate jumped to 6.2% (from 5.7% last month), which pushed the underutilisation rate to 10.5% (from 10.1%) #ausbiz #auspol
Australian employment growth has slowed considerably this year.
Employment up 130k over the first 11 months of the year, compared to +346k over the same period last year #ausbiz #auspol
Australia's post-pandemic job boom was concentrated in one industry: healthcare & social assistance. This reflected the expansion of the NDIS and our ageing population.
It's also the cause of softer job gains this year, with the industry growing just +34k jobs over the past year (down from +176k)
What could possibly go wrong?
