What happens if Iran just now goes quiet for a month?
Seems like Trump would be under horrendous political pressure from
the economic effects way before that.

May also be an attempt to forestall fuel shortages.
The war is starting to pinch consumers in all sorts of ways. $DAL

On second Delta flight in three days with multiple empty seats in higher tiers of travel, where people could have been upgraded but weren’t. Now told this is for payload optimization, that is, balancing weight within the plane to preserve fuel. Presumably a consequence of rising fuel costs.

Trump has now fired three cabinet members in less than seven weeks. Must be lots of anxiety about who’s next.

What Kash Patel doesn’t understand (among other things) is that Trump can afford to lose a meritless libel suit, while he cannot.

The Inside Story of Five Days That Remade the Supreme Court

A major leak from the Supreme Court in this NYT expose of the origins of the Supreme Court’s notorious Shadow Docket. Tl;dr: it was John Roberts idea, as he sought to save the energy companies from the EPA.
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/u...

Inside TurboTax’s 20-Year Fight to Stop Americans From Filing Their Taxes for Free Using lobbying, the revolving door and “dark pattern” customer tricks, Intuit fended off the government’s attempts to make tax filing free and easy, and created its multi-billion-dollar franchise.

The 2019 ProPublica TurboTax investigation never gets old

Bringing Digital Democracy to California and Beyond: A Conversation with Neil Chase of CalMatters Enhanced database can be both a model and perhaps a revenue source

Congrats to @calmatters.org on a $9 million grant to scale their Digital Democracy initiative. Read more on what it’s about here:
dicktofel.substack.com/p/bringing-d...

A New Chapter - Nieman Reports After nearly 80 years, Nieman Reports, a publication part of the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard, turns the page on print.

Nieman Reports ends print magazine
niemanreports.org/nieman-repor...

So we already have the answer:
Blockade Plan A didn’t work because even Trump wasn’t willing to confront the Chinese. So now we are on to Plan B, which is blockading Iranian ports east of the Strait, rather than the Strait itself.
Next: how long will Trump stand the political pain?

no one is doing it like jd vance, a loser across three continents in a single weekend

Two questions about the blockade:
1) what if the Iranians just acquiesce, at least for a few weeks?
2) what if the Chinese don’t?

Who’s Been Impersonating This ProPublica Reporter? A mysterious impostor who claimed to be ProPublica reporter Robert Faturechi reached out to a Canadian official and a Latvian businessman working with Ukraine. So, the real Robert did some reporting of his own.

Another reason investigative reporting isn’t easy. Here’s evidence of why the author of this, @robert-faturechi.bsky.social, remains one of the best.
www.propublica.org/article/impe...

Melania Trump Today In a Nutshell:

"I had no relationship with Ghislaine, even though she called me ‘Sweet Pea’ in emails, and I signed my responses ‘Love, Melania,’ but the victims should speak out even though my husband is stopping the release of evidence that will corroborate their testimony.”

Why Starting Long News Stories With Anecdotes May Have Outlived Its Usefulness Factoring in both impatience and AI

Say it ain't so! @dicktofel.bsky.social writes that the anecdotal lead may have outlived its usefulness. #journalism dicktofel.substack.com/p/why-starti...

Why Starting Long News Stories With Anecdotes May Have Outlived Its Usefulness Factoring in both impatience and AI

Long-form journalism needs to move past anecdotal ledes. This week’s Second Rough Draft newsletter

open.substack.com/pub/dicktofe...

The more we learn, the more it looks like a strategic defeat for Trump and the US:
Iran gets to control— and toll— the Strait (even if they need to cut in US on the $)
Mullahs still in charge
No aid to opposition
Nuclear issues and missiles unresolved, but meaningful disarmament very unlikely

A Forgotten Machine and its Lessons for AI in Newsrooms Today What management and unions should learn from the story of linotype operators

Seems like a good day to re-up this on the perils of efforts to limit necessary AI innovation in newsrooms

dicktofel.substack.com/p/a-forgotte...

open.substack.com/pub/dicktofe...

“The Alarm Bell”: Arizona’s Drop in SNAP Participation Signals Potential Nationwide Impact of Trump Legislation Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act imposes stricter food stamp work requirements and shifts a larger share of the costs to states. Arizona’s swift implementation has made it more difficult to apply an...

Great reporting from @propublica.org
www.propublica.org/article/ariz...

If they are collecting tolls and restricting passage in the interim, I agree. But if not, not sure the US won’t take steps in the interim to make another closure much harder.

Key questions now: will Iran be charging tolls? And will traffic be limited?

If Iran opens the Strait, hard to see what remaining leverage they would have in negotiations.
If they don’t, will Trump resume bombing even after saying all military objectives have been met?

Actually, of these, only Vance and Rubio are in that group. But so are Hegseth and RFK.
The 25th Amendment was not designed to guard against stupidity. The scenarios it envisioned were Ike having an even worse heart attack or JFK having somehow survived his wounds.

How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran

Already distancing themselves from Trump’s decision to go to war in this amazing piece:
The VP
Sec State/Natl Security Adviser
White House Chief of Staff
Chairman, Jojnt Chiefs
Director of CIA
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...

"The common sense of mankind demands that law shall not stop with the punishment of petty crimes... It must also reach men who possess themselves of great power and make deliberate and concerted use of it to set in motion evils which leave no home in the world untouched." —Robert Jackson, Nuremberg

And a happy Easter to you too!

FBI records detail potential witnesses of SC Epstein victim. They aren't public. Handwritten FBI notes, not publicly released under Bondi, expand on details of former SC woman’s claims about Epstein and Trump.

South Carolina paper @postandcourier.bsky.social has more details on documents relating to Trump’s alleged 13 year old victim apparently illegally withheld by DOJ in release of Epstein files
www.postandcourier.com/news/fbi-wit...

Hegseth Fires Army Chief Amid Battle With Its Leaders

We are winning the war so much that Hegseth just fired the Army Chief of Staff, the head of training and the top chaplain
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/u...

Top DOJ Official Todd Blanche Shut Down Crypto Enforcement While Holding Crypto Assets The second-highest official at the DOJ, Todd Blanche rose to prominence as Trump’s personal defense attorney. His actions violated the federal conflicts of interest law and his ethics agreement, exper...

Note that Trump isn’t (at least yet) seeking to confirm Blanche as AG. Stories like this may be among the reasons why.
www.propublica.org/article/todd...

Why I’m Changing the Settings on This Newsletter, and How I Hope It Will Do Some Good Second Rough Draft will add a paid option-- but you still won't have to pay to read it, and we'll decide together where to send the money

I’m tweaking the model for Second Rough Draft in a way that will keep it free to read but also aid some journalism nonprofits—and readers will help decide which ones. This week’s newsletter is here:

open.substack.com/pub/dicktofe...