Iceland is the only NATO member without any armed services. It has to cope with the threat from Russia at the same time as US support looks less reliable. @sandrakanthal.bsky.social went to Iceland to report for Radio 4 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
The master strategist at work
If it hadn't been for the bone spurs, he could have wiped out the Viet Cong single-handedly
Becoming successful is not luck. It’s math. If your probability of success is 1/100 and you try 100 times, you have a 100% chance of success. Community note: Trying 100 times with a 1/100 success probability per independent trial gives a 63% chance of at least one success (1 - 0.99^100), not 100%. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1885662/something-with-a-probability-of-1-occurring-100-times
The probability of getting your maths wrong while influtweeting is higher than you think
Appropriately enough for a nuclear-themed crisis, Trump's statements establish their own uncertainty principle. New Substack post
philipcoggan.substack.com/p/the-uncert...
Miraculous turn-round by Forest and by Gibbs-White who spent the first half mis-kicking and falling over. But they still need 3-4 points to be safe, I suspect
Excellent piece
Is it April 1? A column by Gerry Baker in today's Times which eviscerates J D Vance but doesn't have the caveat "still none of this compares with the Democrats who use pronouns in their emails"
TRUMP, throwing insults at Pope Leo:
“weak on crime”
“terrible for foreign policy”
“catering to the Radical Left”
“owes his position to me”
“sit down and mind your own business”
POPE LEO, unbothered:
“We are called to love.”
Is the Pope a Catholic?
Not according to J D Vance
Reform UK's energy prize winners, Wigan-based Raymond and June Dibble "are the very same couple who nominated Lee Moffitt to become the Wigan branch chair of Reform UK."
Moffitt appears in the publicity video posted by Farage of their miraculous win. Fancy that!
bylinetimes.com/2026/04/13/r....
DJT Truth Social post: "34 34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began. President DONALD J. TRUMP."
LSEG Shipping data show 12 transits of the Strait of Hormuz yesterday (US EST). There were 33 total over the whole weekend, per LSEG shipping, including some ships that did round trips.
This is an imprecise count, and other providers will have different figures. But it isn't close to 34.
If any other politician posted such a picture, Fox News and other media would be running 24-hour coverage accusing them of blasphemy
could be. Also if Vance had negotiated a deal with Iran, and the reaction back home had been bad, Trump could have repudiated it
Great news. As a sidebar, this weekend has given a clear picture of the persuasive powers of J D Vance
Mr Gorbachev, I’m building my own wall.
This could be a switch from TACO to TABASCO (Trump Attempts Blockade and Sparks Chinese Outrage)
This is potentially a serious escalation which could involve the US attempting to interdict Chinese ships
The FT's bosses knew that when the paper reported on a major hedge-funder that litigation would ensue. You have to be brave to face the possibility of a £79m lawsuit and shelling out over £10m in costs. The FT's confidence in its excellent reporting paid off. Well done. www.ft.com/content/6966...
Figure 4. Tariff effects on core PCE prices. This stacked bar chart shows the cumulative effect of tariff waves from February 2025 to June 2026 on core PCE prices. The y-axis shows percentage effects from 0 to 0.9%. Different colored segments represent various tariff waves (Feb, Mar, Apr, Aug, Nov 2025). Black dots indicate total effects, which increase from nearly 0% in February 2025 to approximately 0.9% by June 2026. The forecast region (shaded blue) assumes no additional tariff changes beyond those in table 1 and no additional pass-through seven months after implementation. Note: Black dots show total tariff effects, summing across positive and negative tariff wave contributions. The forecast region, shaded in blue, assumes no additional tariff changes beyond those in table 1 and no additional tariff pass-through seven months after a tariff change. Key identifies in order from top to bottom. Source: Authors' calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.
The authors estimate that the tariffs implemented through November of 2025 can explain the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category and contributed to a 0.8 percent boost in core PCE prices through February 2026. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote
Deranged Trump syndrome in action
Now is not the time for the U.S. to step up preparations for a military draft!
Here's what's happening, why it won't work, why it's such a bad idea, and why so many people are opposing it and calling for *repeal* of the Military Selective Service Act:
hasbrouck.org/draft/automa...
* GREENLAND PRIME MINISTER: TRUMP'S DESIRE TO TAKE OVER OR CONTROL GREENLAND HAS NOT BEEN TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
* GREENLAND PRIME MINISTER IN RESPONSE TO TRUMP: WE ARE NOT A PIECE OF ICE, WE ARE A PROUD PEOPLE
@reuters.com
A draft-dodging President planning to bring back the draft
thehill.com/policy/defen...
2/2 At heart, the dispute seems to be about Iran's 10-point plan. Trump described it as a "workable basis" for negotiations but it looks unacceptable to the US. Did he not read it? Was he shown a different plan? Worth reading Claire Berlinski's piece
claireberlinski.substack.com/p/ceasefire-...
Very few ships have been through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire and Iran says the terms have been violated by Israel's attacks on Lebanon. Given the lack of formal diplomacy, it seems very likely the two sides had a completely different understanding of what the ceasefire would mean 1/2
Schrodinger's Strait of Hormuz; it is either open or closed but the only way to prove it is by sending a boat through, which might be sunk
Iran’s Fars News Agency says all tankers passing through Hormuz have been stopped after Israel’s ‘ceasefire breach’.
It is hard to capture what a sweeping strategic defeat the war in Iran has been for the United States. I’m going to thread here some of the posts today that try to capture those effects. Here’s the first:
