New special situation:
A ~$350m market cap software company, currently in play with a reported buyout offer.
With 90%+ recurring revenue, a successful turnaround, and trading at ~7-8x EV/adj EBITDA, the downside seems protected -> asymmetric setup...
substacktools.com/sharex/BKOip...
Indonesian quotas, laterite mining costs impacted by spiking prices, and shifting defense policies are creating tailwinds for Canada Nickel's ($CNC.V) sulfide nickel.
Just published an update on CNC's progress of a generational infrastructure asset base
substacktools.com/sharex/hSqii...
This US nano-cap is currently facing headwinds, and the share price has contracted almost back to my entry price. But there are also soft signs of recovery, and I try to read some tea leaves based on the new CEO's employment contract...
substacktools.com/sharex/IkXDs...
Unfortunately, no Fool's Day Joke.
Plot twist on this Arctic resource play: Diplomacy failed, and the host country just took the gloves off. This reduces options but may save the company money.
My flash update:
substacktools.com/sharex/aPJCg...
@div_energy ($DEC) FY25 article.
Underlying cash generation remarkably robust, but moving parts require deep analysis.
Covering:
✅ Mountain State Well Plugging Fund
✅ 45I Marginal Well Tax Shield
✅ Next LVL Unit Economics
⚠️ 2029 debt wall
substacktools.com/sharex/1jJWv...
Sub-$10m MC company continues to
-grow revenues strongly
-achieve strong incremental profits and operating cash flow (ex WC)
-dilute shareholders
Insiders owning 60% of the shares + shrinking float: minority shareholders are along for a volatile ride.
substacktools.com/sharex/sdMUh...
Exasol ($EXL.DE) FY25 audited numbers are out.
The Good: The turnaround has worked (€4.1m EBITDA (+100%), €18.7m net cash).
The Bad: Focus verticals ARR growth cooled to 10%. In Feb, Management guided for a revenue decline.
What now?
substacktools.com/sharex/yT7Q5...
Wickes ($WIX.L) raised its target footprint from 250 to 300 stores. By reverse-engineering their FY26 CAPEX guidance, the unit economics look manageable: ~£2.6m per new store and ~£0.6m per refit. A cash-generative growth runway emerges.
substacktools.com/sharex/Cam_r...
I just updated the $IWG.L FY25 earnings article with additional insights from Friday's investor presentation: working capital, AI, Owner Earnings, discretionary overhead costs, cash conversion, M&F margins....
substacktools.com/sharex/zZnUj...
Flow Traders $FLOW.AS has published its Annual Report 2025. Unfortunately, the one thing I was looking for confirmed the impression of weakness I wrote about in February.
substacktools.com/sharex/UlvXb...
Despite the near-term margin compression from growth investments, IDT Corp $IDT remains a cash-generating machine.
-Bulletproof balance sheet,
-17% dividend hike,
-increased buybacks.
But is the 5x in SBC temporary or structural?
substacktools.com/sharex/vHoHJ...
In January, I called Structural Monitoring Systems $SMN.AX a "governance arbitrage" with a call option on their CVM tech. H1 FY26 results show the industrial turnaround is self-funding, and operating leverage is kicking in.
substacktools.com/sharex/MtCRi...
Vistry ($VTY.L) delivered its FY25 results, and the market sent shares to a ~40% discount to TBV. I reconstructed the cash flow statement, adjusted for JVs/leases, and found an underlying FCF yield of nearly 19%. Is the thesis broken, or just delayed?
substacktools.com/sharex/yvlUp...
Housekeeping: WG.L is closed. Today, the merger was announced, and shares were delisted.
30p to be paid within the next two weeks
Nice returns:
substacktools.com/sharex/GZXCu...
@globalxairlines Global Crossing Airlines $JETMF reported FY25 results.
Revenue +10%, operating profit swung to +$8.9m.
Mid-20s FCF yield %.
The most interesting piece may be the company’s consistently negative cash conversion cycle.
My updated analysis:
substacktools.com/sharex/0Vz10...
Tracking year-over-year 10-K risk factor diffs is highly underrated. In $ACNT's FY25 filing, they mirror that Ascent is a fundamentally different company now.
... And yes, the path is bumpy.
substacktools.com/sharex/Nbsla...
@sensennet $SNS.AX H1 FY26 Review: The liquidity squeeze is over (thanks to the R&D refund). Now the real story begins: Operating Leverage.
✅ Revenue +20%
✅ Gross Margins expanded to 85%
✅ H1 EBITDA Positive
At ~19x fwd P/E & 12x LTM adj EBITDA -> GARP
substacktools.com/sharex/Ldkbq...
NAME REVEAL: John Wood Group ($WG.L).
The "Trapped Buyer" thesis played out nicely—regulatory clearance received today.
Double-digit gains in the seven weeks since posting.
What to do now? I discuss the three possible ways: substacktools.com/sharex/prUxy...
Interesting Pharmx $PHX.AX H1FY26 data:
Spend per Pharmacy +33%
Marketplace commission revenue +24%
But ARPU flat (+4%).
Seems "StockView" is driving user density: floor staff is using it, not just purchasing managers. The product is getting stickier.
substacktools.com/sharex/uh_cY...
Name Reveal: Goldmoney ($XAU.TO).
Since my Oct'24 write-up, shares are up 70%. Precious metals biz is printing cash
Recent property sale shows the real estate book value is real.
But, trading liq. is thin & RSI is at 85.
I derisked but still hold some...
substacktools.com/sharex/RE9HW...
@GarrettMotion $GTX dropped 11% post-earnings because guidance was "only" stable.
With a double-digit FCF yield, stability is all you need. And GTX is diversifying, delevering, and rewarding shareholders...
Alas, the pricing reserve warrants caution...
substacktools.com/sharex/NFppb...
I appreciate the time taken by Exasol CFO Jan-Dirk Henrich to clarify my questions regarding capital allocation, the LTIP mechanics, "Lakehouse Turbo", and the mariadb partnership. We also touched (DORA) and contract mechanics.
substacktools.com/sharex/zk3J1...
Hello everyone,
Last week, Innovative Aerosystems and Flow Traders both reported earnings. Please find my takes below.
substacktools.com/sharex/VbJFQ...
PharmX $PHX.AX still trades ~10.7x sales ahead of H1 earnings. The market is waiting for execution numbers.
I came across an additional tailwind that I had not considered before.
Think not just digital transformation of parhamcies but margin defense:
substacktools.com/sharex/XioJq...
Exasol ($EXL.DE) sold off after FY25 prelims: lower revenue guidance is unpopular. But the data shows the turnaround is progressing — profitable, cash generative, net cash, and EMEA focus-vertical ARR retention at 112%.
substacktools.com/sharex/6QtkD...
German sub-€150m micro-cap is executing a "simplified capital reduction" to wipe out historical deficits.
Why? Clearing the path for dividends and buybacks.
Net Cash & tax shield that exceeds its Enterprise Value.
But there is a lease accounting catch...
substacktools.com/sharex/s7tQO...
I closed the situation before the time was up and updated the article. For reasons unknown to me, Cyanotech shares rose more than 10% above the $0.47 offered by the company. While tiny in total size, a 50% gain in 8 trading days is nice to book :)
40% drops are never fun... even in microcaps. Looking @sensennet SenSen’s ($SNS.ax) broken streak of six positive cash flow quarters and only 1.1 quarters of liquidity, seems scary... but there are also green shoots.
My take: substacktools.com/sharex/rYseG...
Up +150% since my initial deep dive a year ago, driven by geopolitical uncertainty.
It isn't just the headlines or the legal progress; it's also the strategic assets the company acquired for pennies.
Banked some profits. The rest is a free ride.
substacktools.com/sharex/Ofl6_...
Quality of Life update: The Idea Inventory.
A central hub to track every active opportunity and daisy-chain backwards through the research history.
From microcap net-nets to distressed arb—it’s all indexed here:
substacktools.com/sharex/ojEap...