A great write-up on brand-new research I was involved in. We used a really different approach from the ones that we & many others have used previously to estimate how many Covid deaths there *really* were--almost 20% more than known. Our results broadly accord w others but add new demographic detail

More than 150,000 uncounted COVID-19 deaths occurred early in the pandemic, a study finds A new study says the early U.S. COVID-19 death toll is much higher than official counts, and that there were disparities in which deaths were missing from those tallies.

The COVID-19 pandemic’s early death toll was much higher than the official U.S. count, according to a new study that spotlights dramatic disparities in the uncounted deaths. apnews.com/article/covi...

Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States A machine learning approach suggests that COVID-19 deaths were undercounted unevenly across sociodemographic groups in 2020–2021.

19% more deaths from Covid in the US than counted thru 2021

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Preston’s death was first labeled an overdose. The autopsy found no drugs. Likely an asthma attack amid LA’s wildfires. Our recent analysis suggests 440 excess deaths—far beyond the official 31. We’re undercounting climate’s toll. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

COVID-19 deaths in the US continue to be undercounted, research shows, despite claims of ‘overcounts’ Taking into consideration the number of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 compared with pre-pandemic years is critical to getting an accurate accounting of the pandemic’s real toll.

I also recommend this great piece in the @us.theconversation.com by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social & colleagues walking through some of their great work to counter this myth of "overcounting" coming out of previous news cycle.

theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...

How many people died of COVID? We likely undercounted, not overcounted COVID deaths

Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear:

➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19.

➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted.

jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...

Millennials Are Dying at an Alarming Rate. We Have a Few Ideas as to Why. America is not a good place to be an early adult.

As a mortality researcher, I haven’t generally paid a lot of attention to people my own age (elder Millennial here). That’s, unfortunately, changing.

(With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025 This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.

New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025 This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.

Study: 30 direct fatalities from the L.A. wildfires, but 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025 attributable to the wildfires--likely reflecting "a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions..." 🛟 😷 health policy

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025

An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking.

ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky

NEW PAPER: "Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019" in @jruralhealth.bsky.social w/Associates Irma Elo & Samuel Preston @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social K Hempstead @astokespop.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1111/jrh....
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Are Driving the Increase in US Excess Mortality—and Adults Without College Degrees Are Bearing Most of the Burden About 525,000 more deaths occurred among US adults in 2023 than would be expected had pre-2010 mortality trends continued. More than 90 percent of these deaths occurred among individuals without a bac...

This work was a team effort—grateful to lead author @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social and coauthor @wrigleyfield.bsky.social

Coverage via @busph.bsky.social

www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...

Education structures exposure to risk.

Adults without a BA are more likely to work unstable jobs, live in areas without access to healthy food, and face financial and logistical barriers to medical care.

These conditions increase the risk of chronic disease and premature death.

Adults without a BA accounted for over 260,000 excess deaths from circulatory diseases in 2023.

Diabetes was another key contributor.

Among men without a BA, nearly 1 in 3 excess deaths were from drug poisonings or other external causes.

Among adults without a BA, mortality in 2023 was 26% higher than expected.

For college graduates, it was 8% higher.

This divergence began before the pandemic, widened sharply during it, and persisted even after COVID deaths declined

Diverging Mortality Trends by Educational Attainment in the US This cross-sectional study examines trends in US mortality rates by sex and educational attainment before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The U.S. once saw steady declines in mortality—but progress stalled around 2010.

New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued.

91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Thanks to The Oklahoman (www.oklahoman.com) for running my opinions on the new budget and impacts on Alzheimer's research (bit.ly/4mZXrg7) and public health progress for all of us. #PublicHealth #EndAlzheimers #Epidemiology #ScienceHomecoming

Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

For 40 years, Americans have lived shorter lives than people in other rich countries.

For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse.

New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.

Here we have calculated the number of excess deaths attributable to the US mortality disadvantage. This is based on estimates of the number of US deaths that would have been expected each year had the US population experienced the age-specific mortality rates of other wealthy nations.

US Excess Deaths Continued to Rise Even After the COVID-19 Pandemic There were over 1.5 million “missing Americans” in 2022 and 2023—deaths that would have been averted if US mortality rates matched those of peer countries. Excess US deaths have been increasing for de...

This work was a team effort—grateful to lead author Jacob Bor and coauthors Rafeya Raquib, Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, Steffie Woolhandler & David Himmelstein. (5/5)

Coverage via @busph.bsky.social

www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...

#MissingAmericans #ExcessDeaths #HealthPolicy @jama.com

The US mortality crisis is decades in the making—shaped by policies that fostered car-centric cities, fragmented health care, weak safety nets, and poor nutrition. These systemic failures cost lives every day—and reversing course will require bold, structural change. (4/5)

In 2023, 46% of all US deaths under age 65 were avoidable. That’s nearly 1 in 2 deaths in working-age adults—driven by overdoses, gun violence, car crashes, and chronic disease, rooted in policy failures and structural neglect. (3/5)

Since 1980, the US has accumulated nearly 15 million “missing Americans”—lives lost because our death rates remain far higher than in other wealthy nations. This crisis began long before COVID and shows no sign of slowing. (2/5)

Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5)

tinyurl.com/569pr9ty

Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Excess deaths in the US vs other high-income countries.
Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences?

This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.

Association between Wealth and Mortality in the United States and Europe | NEJM Amid growing wealth disparity, we have little information on how health among older Americans compares with that among older Europeans across the distribution of wealth. We performed a longitudinal...

A blockbuster study from Irene Papanicolas and colleagues linking wealth to mortality.
- At every US wealth level., mortality rates were higher than Europe's
- The wealthiest Americans have a survival rate similar to the poorest northern/western Europeans
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....

Excess mortality rates of U.S. Americans age 25-44 (relative to 1999-2010 baseline) by cause of death from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and co-authors

from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...