I don't think "consumers literally think it's the worst economy in modern history" accurately reflects what sentiment measures. I think we are on the verge of seeing one of the greatest stock market declines of all time, but I don't deny that it is currently at record levels.

reasons behind sentiment are indeed partisan and/or due to bubble information environments, i think it is foolish to wave it away as nonsense.

sentiment is actually a leading indicator of actual job openings (adjusted for employment population). Ability to find a new job is one very rational way to inform sentiment. No matter what, there is a little weirdness around Covid, but that shouldn't necessarily be shocking. Even if some of the

you seem to suggest. Here's a graph showing Average annual consumer sentiment (Michigan) compared to the ratio of (non-farm) Job Openings : Total Employment (in other words, how a value of .04 means there are 4 job openings for every 100 existing employed people). While not perfect, you can see that

not easily modeled. Sentiment is about future expectations, and a good corollary is the stock market. People don't have a great input-driven model to explain changes in the S&P 500 either! But here's a simple hint that sentiment could be based on real signals people are seeing rather than a bias as

Will - while I agree that the current sentiment levels can't be easily explained by a few simple data points regarding actual (historical) economic data without introducing a model change somewhere around the start of covid, I think one should expect sentiment to be very complex, dynamic, and

bsky.app/profile/fojo...

2) Buying a house suddenly got much more expensive when looking at it from a monthly mortgage payment. And people who have a current mortgage don't have mobility for the same reason.

1) While it's true that real wages are the highest they've ever been, they are also basically the same as in 2019, which was preceded by a strong decade of income growth. People got used to income growth and it's flattened out over the last half decade

Things that help calm the nervous system, quickly:

- Box breathing (in for 4, hold for 4, out for 4, hold for 4, repeat)
- Immerse your face in cold water (activates mammalian dive reflex)
- Humming (stimulates vagus nerve)
- Exercise (anything helps, outside even better)
- Impeachment and removal

I guess it's good that we're just a laughing stock rather than actual genocide doers

With all dye respect, wtf dies Friedman know about ai

I really hope this was scheduled. Regardless, why aren't you and other Dems holding a nonstop press conference re: emergency impeachment proceedings? I live in Oakland and am also calling your office.

Until they add a Dislike button, just gonna respond with 👎

This may be a little too off color, but I can think of one woman this man would like to punch

A number of Jewish organizations are shrilly insisting that any criticism of Israeli genocide and warmongering is an illegitimate attack on Jews. At the same time, an increasing number of non-Jewish people are insisting that any attack on Jews is a legitimate attack on Israel.

This sucks, man

Give a shitload of money to The Boring Company + future oil royalties to build a super duper awesome high speed underground pipeline

1) chicken, easy
2) meatball, also delicious but can't approach chicken's perfection
3) My god never, ever, eat eggplant

Amen. I do think it's fair to assign partial credit to the Israeli Govt for this attack (and by extension the US Govt), just as it will be fair to assign partial credit to the US Govt when its people suffer (hopefully not, but seemingly inevitable) retaliatory attack(s) at home.

OTOH, you can completely despise the Iranian regime with no caveats, and yet still somehow see them as not the worst guy in this fight

Fuckin A Brother!!!

I know that . . . but wouldn't the house have to vote on this Senate compromise, and if so wouldn't they have to seat her first?

Pathetic, but . . . would this force the house to seat Grijalva? (Not that that is Schumer's calculation)

Agreed. But separately . . . 1 in 5 seems disappointingly low.

Let them eat shit

I got in with one minute to spare after your 10 minute warning!

You have a lot of good points Mark but this ain't one of them. Any number of easy answers here, but the easiest is just to treat like normal tax dollars and send to general fund. Short answer is congress.

very stupid and very broke

You really ought to apologize to Meg dude. Especially after your (appropriate) reading comprehension snark. We all make mistakes, it's ok to apologize.

She's saying the opposite