The Gulf on the front line: The end of strategic hedging and new space for Europeans – European Council on Foreign Relations The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable

✍️ The war on Iran is a Zeitenwende moment for Gulf states, shifting their security calculus and geopolitical positioning. This opens up space for partnerships with Europe to stabilise this region of great importance for the global economy. @cinziabianco.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/the-...

The Gulf on the front line: The end of strategic hedging and new space for Europeans – European Council on Foreign Relations The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable

Europeans must help steer the region away from the vortex of violence that sucks in the legitimate security concerns of the Gulf countries, and could trap them and their neighbours in a state of perpetual tensions and instability, writes @cinziabianco.bsky.social

The Gulf on the front line: The end of strategic hedging and new space for Europeans – European Council on Foreign Relations The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable

The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable partners the monarchies need, writes Cinzia Bianco.

https://bit.ly/4uROVnp

The Gulf countries are experiencing a true Zeitenwende: this is the end of strategic hedging - moving forward they will need reliable and stable friends. And an entirely different (surprising?) regional security architecture. Tips for Europeans. My latest for @ecfrmena.bsky.social

Gulf energy bottleneck disrupts Europe and global supply chains amid Iranian attacks

Europeans recognised that Gulf security is linked to EU security.

Protecting EU interests requires diplomatic off-ramp, preventing Iran from collapsing into a failed state, and strengthening maritime and infrastructure security with Gulf partners.

My latest:

www.brusselstimes.com/opinions/202...

L’analista Cinzia Bianco: “I Paesi del Golfo un fronte unito, stanno reggendo all’attacco iraniano” Per l’esperta del European Council on Foreign Relations Emirati, Bahrein e Qatar hanno superato le passate divergenze e mostrato di essersi ben preparati allo …

18/ @cinziabianco.bsky.social speaks to La Repubblica about how the Gulf countries are presenting a united front in the face of persisting Iranian attacks www.repubblica.it/esteri/2026/...

Yemen: Between Gulf tensions and Iran war clouds – European Council on Foreign Relations Cinzia Bianco welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe

🎧 In the WOMENP podcast, @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen unpack what the current developments in Yemen mean for its fragile political trajectory and wider regional security, and their key implications for Europe.
⬇️ To the latest episode https://bit.ly/46XDX5k

14/ @cinziabianco.bsky.social on the reputational damage of this war, for @euronews.com: “This is Dubai’s ultimate nightmare, as its very essence depended on being a safe oasis in a troubled region. There might be a way to be resilient, but there is no going back.” www.euronews.com/travel/2026/...

Iran's recent attacks have shaken the Gulf states to their core and the monarchies in the region are at crossroads. How far will they go to protect their interests against Iran?

Listen to our Visiting Fellow, @cinziabianco.bsky.social to learn more and check out our latest commentary on ecfr.eu.

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

Analysis by @jbdacey.bsky.social, Ellie Geranmayeh, @hlovatt.bsky.social, @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Majda Ruge, @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social & @ajwsmall.bsky.social 👇️ ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

Yemen: Between Gulf tensions and Iran war clouds – European Council on Foreign Relations Cinzia Bianco welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe

🎧 In the WOMENP podcast, @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen unpack what the current developments in Yemen mean for its fragile political trajectory and wider regional security, and their key implications for Europe.
⬇️ To the latest episode https://bit.ly/46XDX5k

Huge group effort from European Council on Foreign Relations to view the war from Iran, US, Israel, Gulf monarchies, Russia, China,and the wider regional impact. Below a snippet from my section on the Gulf

This is an analysis you don’t want to miss: ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

Trump strikes Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation

3/ Listen to @ecfr.eu's emergency podcast: @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Ellie Geranmayeh and @jyshapiro.bsky.social discuss Trump’s war aims, the potential for transformation of Iran's political system, and how Arab Gulf states react as they find themselves on the front line? ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

@cinziabianco.bsky.social ‘Amazon temporarily shuts down its data center in UAE after being hit. The UAE strongly believes in AI and badly wants to host AI data centers, which are rare and extremely costly to build. This escalation is problematic in that way, too.’

Iran’s Attacks on Persian Gulf Countries Crack Their Safe Haven Image

“There was nothing that they valued more than that perception of safety — and they prided themselves on maneuvering politically and hedging to be basically on the good books of everyone.”

@cinziabianco.bsky.social on the Gulf’s shattered image as a safe haven: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/w...

Yemen: Between Gulf tensions and Iran war clouds – European Council on Foreign Relations Cinzia Bianco welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe

4/In the latest @ecfr.eu WOMENP podcast episode, @cinziabianco.bsky.social speaks to Yasmeen al-Eryani and Maysaa Shujaa Aldeen about Yemen as the latest battlefield for UAE-Saudi rivalry, and what the next stage of US-Iran escalation could mean for the Houthis 👇 buff.ly/KCY9fCg

Yemen: Between Gulf tensions and Iran war clouds – European Council on Foreign Relations Cinzia Bianco welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe

🎙️ In the latest @ecfr.eu WOMENP podcast episode, @cinziabianco.bsky.social speaks to Yasmeen al-Eryani and Maysaa Shujaa Aldeen about Yemen as the latest battlefield for UAE-Saudi rivalry, and what the next stage of US-Iran escalation could mean for the Houthis 👇 buff.ly/KCY9fCg

Yemen: Between Gulf tensions and Iran war clouds – European Council on Foreign Relations Cinzia Bianco welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe

🎧 In this episode of the WOMENP podcast series, @cinziabianco.bsky.social welcomes Yasmeen Al-Eryani and Maysaa Shuja al-Deen to unpack the recent developments around Yemen and what they mean for Europe. @ecfrmena.bsky.social

⬇️Listen to the latest episode now: https://bit.ly/46XDX5k

My view is that, if you tune out the noise, geopolitically the UAE is waiting out Saudi Arabia, especially in East Africa, hoping fatigue will take over, and that they will lose focus, given how many balls they have in the air, both regionally and domestically.

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans  – European Council on Foreign Relations Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and p

✍️ A brief momentum for a Gulf front collapsed as strained Saudi-Emirati relations gave way to open rivalry, driven by mistrust and suspicions of parallel agendas. @cinziabianco.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on the Saudi–UAE rupture and the European angle 👇 buff.ly/TUk8Evm

It took me years and dozens of interviews to write this book with the goal to unpack what is really at the core of Gulf states’ behavior/thinking anyday. Now it’s yours.

OUT TODAY in very affordable format (offer ends in 10 days!) for @manchesterup.bsky.social

Info & buy: tinyurl.com/mph2dp6u

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans  – European Council on Foreign Relations Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and p

The years-long Saudi-Emirati divergence has erupted under the pressure of rapidly shifting geopolitical conditions. Europeans need to remain alert to this constantly changing environment, while being flexible enough to adapt, writes @cinziabianco.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/from...

Analysis from @cinziabianco.bsky.social on KSA-UAE issues, which refers briefly to AI

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans  – European Council on Foreign Relations Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and p

Sober analysis from @cinziabianco.bsky.social: the UAE-Saudi rupture has destroyed momentum to develop a “Gulf vision” across the wider region - their strategic alliance has collapsed.

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans : ecfr.eu/article/from...

6/ The crisis will be forcing Europeans to pursue balance rather than neutrality — especially in the Red Sea — engage bilaterally on security, trade, or sovereign AI, and link reconstruction funding to sustainable disincentivizing projects seeking political influence.

5/Abu Dhabi may deepen alignment with Israel to secure US political backing. Meanwhile MBS tried to leverage momentum from his DC visit. But UAE networks in DC have been so resilient, they will withstand Saudi pressures

4/Countries dependent on Gulf funding — including Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine — risk destabilisation as pressure grows to take sides, while Abu Dhabi may de-escalate tactically but will not conform to Saudi diktats and is stronger than Qatar was in 2017.

3/Riyadh is pursuing regional leadership to contain Israel’s growing hegemony through defence coordination with Pakistan and Turkey and, while a repeat of 2017 is unlikely, it will try to dislodge UAE influence along its borders.

2/A brief momentum for a Gulf front collapsed as strained Saudi-Emirati relations gave way to open rivalry, driven by mistrust and suspicions of parallel agendas.

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans  – European Council on Foreign Relations Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and p

1/ Read my @ecfrmena.bsky.social analysis of the big Saudi-UAE rupture. Yemen was the spark, as Riyadh really felt the Emiratis were taking them for a ride. But this is much bigger than Yemen. Even bigger than the Red Sea. It is about Israel.
👉 Full piece: ecfr.eu/article/from...