Beware...

The biggest losers of Trump’s Iran fiasco: Israel and the US After Iran, and Venezuela, the US has destroyed its reputation and the world has learned a new lesson. That the US is no longer a country to be admired. It is now to be feared

After Iran, and Venezuela, the US has destroyed its reputation and the world has learned a new lesson. That the US is no longer a country to be admired. It is now to be feared

✏️ Tom Arms

Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster Scenarios now range from bad to awful

Fifty days into the Iran war the world has lost 550m barrels of Gulf crude—nearly 2% of last year’s global output. Three factors are pushing the world towards the cliff edge

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And this is Gemini's attempt at Richard Scarry doing Fordow.

Experimenting with OpenAI's new model. A hydrologically accurate cut-away of the Strait of Hormuz, drawn by Richard Scarry, drawing on current AIS data.

Excellent. It shows why it is wrong to pay attention to Trump's words. There is no one-to-one relationship between his statements, and his thoughts and actions. Yet investors react immediately to every utterance.

Putin’s residence, but there are none around key industrial or oil refinery sites. Priorities! The lack of missiles isn’t just production capacity. Ukraine has hit missile factories, and their component manufacturing so
that too is having its impact.

Ukraine’s Second Miracle Year The war isn’t won, but for the first time in years, outright victory seems possible.

open.substack.com/pub/thebulwa...

Elections 2026: London There are local elections in the UK every May, and every year I do a preview.

New post:

"Elections 2026: London"

In my final preview I've split London into ten different battlegrounds to show how the capital's politics is evolving. With predictions for each borough.

In collaboration with the brilliant @londoncentric.media

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

Our new report finds that Brits support rejoining the EU.👏🇪🇺

Read more here: https://www.bestforbritain.org/push_for_eu_membership

This is one of the points @ldfreedman.bsky.social made in his post. Ukraine becoming a drone superpower is giving Zelensky some big diplomatic tools.

Which Iran is America dealing with? With talks set to resume, rivalries in the Iranian leadership could stymie a truce

The war appears to be hardening a new faultline between Iranian nationalists who are guided by realpolitik and state interest, and Islamists who are anchored in revolutionary ideology

It is not a very good painting, but that does not matter any more: it has iconic status. No one really looks at it They just want a photo.

"The most surprising thing is that not a single presidential decree on the economy issued since 2012 has met its target figures. And for some reason, the president does not demand it, no one is punished," he said.

Populist moves feel good and look good, but they are not the answer. Everybody has to pay, in a progressive tax regime. (Oh, yes, and it is not a burden...)

The best thing about Brexit is it sold the EU to the rest of Europe.

Reform and Nigel Farage want to drag Bromley out of London. I just signed Liam Conlon MP's petition to stop this and protect our Freedom Passes and other vital local services. Add your name here: keepbromleyinlondon.co.uk

... ducked if the eventual investment decisions are to be judged in a sensible strategic context. 5/5

Good on the dangers of cushioning consumers. (It pushes the costs elswhere, and hurts the poor disproportionately).

Yes London is expensive but tomorrow you can watch a one-day cricket match at the Oval and see the London Symphony Orchestra at the Barbican and it will cost you a grand total of less than than £30.

Our evaluation of Claude Mythos Preview’s cyber capabilities | AISI Work We conducted cyber evaluations of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview and found continued improvement in capture-the-flag (CTF) challenges and significant improvement on multi-step cyber-attack simulati...

This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era.

Hear me out ( 🧵) 1/

www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...

Murderer, war criminal, liar and aggressor Putin came to church for the Easter service.

What do you think he's thinking of?

Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser There is a reason he wants an exit from Iran

Donald Trump is calling the war a great victory. It doesn’t look like one alongside his scant progress in fulfilling the conflict’s three most persuasive aims. Register for free to read what they were

Whatever windfall Russia thought it might get from the oil price spike, has been counteracted by Ukraine making sure the export terminals in the Baltic and Black Sea’s have been shuttered, stopping exports.

Those who are writing about Russia's systemic attacks on Ukrainian civilians should be intellectually honest and have the guts to admit that Russia is pursing a clear policy objective of destroying Ukrainians as a national and ethnic group. Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine.

I suppose that no one is telling Putin that Russia is losing the war.

Indeed. But instead "we" will waste money on revisiting deservedly obsolete moon programmes.