if you look into a mirror and chant “Ron Vara” three times you will suddenly assume the identity that imports subtract from GDP

No, this is before retaliation. We also caveat that we don’t incorporate the additional economic costs of trade policy uncertainty or broader harms of starting a global trade war.

No, tariffs wouldn’t have a positive effect, and I’d hesitate to call this minimal. Measured as economic harm per dollar of revenue raised, tariffs are a very inefficient tax. Currency appreciation doesn’t make tariffs free, it shifts who bears the burden from importers to exporters.

We’ve estimated the long-run economic impact of Trump’s new tariff ideas—a GDP hit of 0.4%.

the Word is being used in government policy! wild!

Tariffs are a tax increase that reduce after-tax incomes.

Whether they have an impact on the consumer price level depends on whether the Fed loosens monetary policy to accommodate the short-term transition to the new equilibrium with tariffs.

Yeah, they also happen to be our three largest export markets. Exporters will feel the pain even before considering potential retaliation.

Donald Trump says he will hit China, Canada and Mexico with new tariffs www.ft.com/content/8b98...

This is true of the other place, at least

Thanks!

It’ll be hard to persuade people that higher tariffs (aka import taxes) for other tax cuts is a good trade because it is actually a bad trade.