Same but household formation. We're missing about ~700K Gen Z households today because they're moving out of mom & dad's later. They'll move out and form new households, just later. We're gonna be OK.
We've been calling out the statewide Florida demographic slowdown to clients for the past year+.
I was talking with a homebuilder in Nashville last week. They're seeing fewer California transplants but more buyers from Florida. Go figure.
I appreciate being able to contribute to this story on Florida's stalled-out population boom.
The Census data is finally catching up with the domestic migration losses we've been seeing (and alerting clients to) since late 2024.
My suggestion, imagine the most nefarious interpretation possible and assume it's that.
What does drawn-out economic decline look like?
Here's Main & Main in Jordan, NY, near the old Erie Canal Lock 59, also where I grew up. A typical grey spring day.
It peaked in 1860, but population began falling as railroads replaced the canal as the main NYC shipping route.
(Those are horses.)
How old is the first-time homebuyer?
Turns out, the best answer is probably, "Mid-/late 30s" and "a bit older than in 2010."
careful... just opened our sprinkler valve today (overhead, via ceiling panel in the basement) and got a nice shower from a cracked fitting.
$0.28 → $0.07 as Supreme Court hears arguments for/against birthright citizenship ban
Other than a flurry of articles recently, what's going on here?
Supreme Court session hasn't even started yet.
Is it a liquidity thing? Volume is $232K.
Weird proof of my own personal AI productivity boom, booking travel feels way more annoying now.
Thinking about what I can do with an AI-assisted hour today vs. 1 hour planning routes, booking flights/hotels/etc. for a multi-city trip. The difference is so much wider now than 3-4 mos ago.
*Except for season 5
Book-ins to ICE facilities, a precursor to deportation, have been roughly matching 2019 rates.
Before today, DHS secretary‑nominee Mullin has been publicly in favor of current immigration enforcement levels and tactics.
Not expecting any big U-turn on enforcement action, targeting, deportation levels, etc.
This quote sums it up, not to mention falling LFPR for women age 20-32 vs. rising for women age 33-60:
"for young women, confronted with a lack of work opportunities – but an abundance of prosperous young men - getting married early and having a large family was a natural choice."
1) Large labor demand in post-war reconstruction (typically male jobs)
2) War-generation women moved from factories to secretarial, retail, clerical jobs (crowding out young women)
Source: cepr.org/voxeu/column...
In 1950s-60s, UK brides and grooms married younger than any point since at least 1550.
Why?
A big reason is the the post-WW2 job market...
@bencarlson007.bsky.social's bookshelf game, impressive. Really need to get step up.
Oh and conversation was great too.
"When do Baby Boomers' homes hit the market?" is one of the most-asked questions clients/others ask. We go into that and a bunch more.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=utrU...
Over the next decade, we'll see an unprecedent share of jobs, spending, and living spaces directed toward caring for America's elderly population.
Source: www.wsj.com/economy/over...
Just talked about this on a podcast. Baby boomers (and older) are 23% of the population but 43% of homeowners.
They're also living longer, more active, and wealthier than their parents - and most never want to move.
Slowly but surely, work-from-home creeps lower.
Low white-collar hiring probably brings this national figure lower over time, with very different paths regionally.
What @edzarenski.bsky.social describes is the *exact* result predicted by Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2025)...
Immigration enforcement causes "significant loss of undocumented workers in construction" AND "net job losses for US-born workers."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
My entire experience with Copilot, so far
US deaths held steady at 3.1 million in 2025, in line with the path from before 2020. We'll see this inch up every year from now on.
After declining for 13 years, US births have held steady since 2021.
Why?
Moms 30 and up are having more kids than ever, offsetting the long-term decline for moms under 30.
Bar chart titled "Annual US Births" spanning 1970 to 2025. The chart shows births climbing from 2 million in 1970 to a peak of 4.3 million around 2007, followed by a steady decline to 3.62 million in 2025, matching birth rates from four decades prior.
US births held steady at 3.62 million in 2025, near a 40+ year low.
Been saying 'Silver Tsunami' will more be a 'slow trickle'
US homes transferred by inheritance jumped 26% to 342K last year (source: Cotality)
Not what you'd expect in a silver tsunami.
1.2 million excess deaths during pandemic did not kneecap housing demand. In fact, housing demand boomed.
In 2020–2022, the number of homes lived in as primary residence grew at the fastest pace since probably the 1970s.
