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Posts by Trond K. Botnen

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NEW: Swedish intelligence assessments are consistent with ISW’s longstanding assessments about the significant challenges the Russian economy is facing and the Kremlin’s efforts to conceal these issues to falsely present Russia as able to sustain its war indefinitely. 🧵(1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar042026

22 hours ago 252 68 2 6
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Sky Defense A New Way to Save Lives in Ukraine

Sky Defense
open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p...

1 day ago 0 0 0 0
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NEW: RU forces conducted 4 platoon-sized or smaller mechanized & motorized assaults across the theater in the last 48 hours, but they are unlikely to bolster the RU spring-summer 2026 offensive.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 4.19.26: isw.pub/UkrWar041926

More Key Takeaways ⬇️(1/3)

2 days ago 164 32 2 3
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NEW: Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to exploit overstretched Russian air defenses to damage oil infrastructure and military assets in Russia and occupied Crimea. (1/6)

Read more in the full April 18, 2026, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar041826

2 days ago 257 46 3 2
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NEW: Officials in Russian regions that the Kremlin has historically sought to shield from the effects of the war in Ukraine are beginning to acknowledge the impacts of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in the Russian rear.

Full Report: isw.pub/UkrWar041726

Other Key Takeaways:

3 days ago 243 63 2 6
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NEW: Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on April 14 and 15.

Read the full Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041526

More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/2)

5 days ago 105 24 2 3
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Life of Donaldito.

6 days ago 1 0 0 0
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NEW: Russia is increasingly centralizing drone procurement for its Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), which will likely have both positive and negative consequences. 🧵(1/5)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041426

Other Key Takeaways:

6 days ago 99 16 1 1
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NEW: The Kremlin is downplaying Viktor Orban’s election defeat as Russia loses a key European ally.🧵(1/5)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041326

1 week ago 173 44 4 6
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NEW: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations of the Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday on April 11 and 12.🧵(1/3)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041226

1 week ago 126 25 2 4
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Hungary, List vote, 55.1% counted:

National parliament election

TISZA-EPP: 53.3% (+0.5)
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 38.1% (-0.5)
MH-ESN: 6.0%
DK-S&D: 1.2%
MKKP→G/EFA: 0.8%

+/- vs. 47.2% counted

➤ europeelects.eu/hungary

1 week ago 37 9 0 3
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"Rebels in our own time" My 3/28 speech at No Kings 3, Cincinnati

"Rebels in our own time"
open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p...

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NEW: The Kremlin unilaterally declared a short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday. (1/6)

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar041026

1 week ago 145 34 4 5
The Hungarian Candidate Is Orbán's Decline Trump's Fall?

The Hungarian Candidate
open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p...

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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NEW: Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar040926 (1/8)

1 week ago 428 95 6 12
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Donald Trump kunne ha stormet inn i studio, skutt Jake Tapper, og Mark Rutte hadde erklært full støtte. Ruttes servilitet oppmunterer Trumps aggresjon. Han truet med en ny krig i natt. Målet ikke spesifisert, men det er ikke så viktig. Selve krigen, å utøve amerikansk dominans, er grunn i seg selv.

1 week ago 73 12 4 0
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1/ NEW: Russia maintains expansive territorial goals in Ukraine beyond demands for Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast.

Read the full April 8, 2026 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar040826

1 week ago 126 33 3 5
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Ignorance and Ignominy Our Hormuz humiliation was not an accident

TACO all over again. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/ignorance-...

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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Trump's Defeat in Iran It's consistent with how other countries, organizations, and people have defeated him

Trump's Defeat in Iran
open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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NEW: Russian forces continue to conduct drone strikes intentionally targeting civilians in southern Ukraine, weaponizing civilian harm as an intentional tool of war. 🧵(1/6)

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar040726

1 week ago 147 52 3 6

This is simply genocidal language and is a horror in itself.

2 weeks ago 9712 2291 499 88
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Trump threatens a “whole civilization will die tonight." This brings America into a new immoral universe

Trump threatens a “whole civilization will die tonight."
open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

2 weeks ago 1 1 0 0
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The president speaks genocide The words, the law, the future

The president speaks genocide
open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p...

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Trump has really, seriously, frighteningly lost his mind His latest threat is bonkers

Trump has really, seriously, frighteningly lost his mind
open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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NEW: Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure is exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses and significantly damaging Russian oil export capabilities. 🧵(1/7)

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar040626

2 weeks ago 317 84 7 8
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Final Thought: He's Seriously Out of His Mind And the Iranians Know it

Final Thought: He's Seriously Out of His Mind
open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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NEW: UA forces intensified their long-range strike campaign on RU oil infrastructure w/in roughly the last 2 wks (since March 22-23), focusing on the RU Baltic Sea port & oil infrastructure critical to RU oil exports. (1/4)

RU Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar040526

2 weeks ago 216 51 2 4

Det er i hvert fall noe monty pythonesque over det hele.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

Two weeks ago, the Hungarian opposition was bracing for a false flag operation, an "emergency" that would allow Viktor Orban to turn the tide or even cancel an election he is losing. Now it appears to have arrived

2 weeks ago 4799 1867 102 61
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The President of the U.S. The man with the nuclear codes. And people are just going to pretend this is ok.

In a functioning society, he would be removed from office within hours by his own party.

2 weeks ago 3381 918 144 58
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