A breadth thrust fires when the % of SPX stocks at 20-day new highs surpasses 55%. That produces a bullish regime that lasts for a year.
The last breadth thrust was last May.
Not saying we won't get one in this cycle, but we haven't gotten one yet.
himountresearch.substack.com/p/stocks-bou...
Let’s call it a ‘cease fire’ but not actually cease firing.
Iran confirms a ceasefire agreement but notes it will continue to “control the Strait of Hormuz", with safe passage for ships achieved via coordination with Iran’s military.
Iran did not “control” Hormuz pre-war.
US acknowledgement of Iran controlling Hormuz is a strategic defeat and humiliation.
It is.
Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on a staggering $373 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500 🚨🚨
Quite the contrasting headlines from the WSJ today.
Easter morning message from the president:
A sound behind her stirs
A scatter of bright birdsong through the air.
She turns, but cannot focus through her tears,
Or recognise the Gardener standing there
malcolmguite.wordpress.com/2026/04/05/a...
Earth ... from Artemis II crew.
I Work Very Hard, And I Would Like To Try Cake By A Horse Hello. I am a horse. I work very hard at my job of being a horse. When humans say move the heavy thing, I move the heavy thing. When humans sit on top of me and pull on my head, I carry them where they want to go. The main food the humans give me is hay and oats. But I am thinking it would be nice to have a different food. I am thinking I would like to try cake. Yes, yes. Cake. I know all about it. When humans eat cake, it is in glad times. It is the food for a celebration, such as when a woman becomes 47. I have seen cake on the Fourth of July. When humans have a cake, they stand around it and clap hands and smile and say happy birthday at each other. Sometimes there are beautiful markings on a cake, such as balloons or a pink shape. Sometimes the top of a cake is on fire and a boy must blow on the fire with mouth wind. This is the scariest cake. I do not want this kind. But I will eat any other cake. Any cake that is not the fire cake that tries to kill the boy. Please understand: I do not get money for doing work. I do not get to go inside the house. All I am either doing my horse job or standing in my pen or eating food off the floor. I always do these things. But I have never once gotten cake and I would like it very much. I have noticed that human children get to eat cake. But I am bigger than the children. I am more helpful to the farm. Children do not move the heavy things like me or let anyone ride on them. And yet they get cake. Maybe the humans will realize this. Maybe they will say, "You know who deserves cake? That horse. That horse whose back we are always on." Every day I dream about what it will be like if I get to eat cake. Here is what will happen. First, I will walk to the cake and putt my nose at it like hrrfff to make and stomping my hooves to make sure it is not a snake. Then I will trot in a circle to show that I am a horse and I am large. After that, I will nuzzle the cake to …
The horse op-ed is an instant classic. I can't tell you how much joy this piece gives me.
It should be taught in every introductory writing class in no small part because the horse arguments are so compelling. "I have noticed that human children get to eat cake. But I am bigger than the children."
Looks like the last couple of days in the market was an elaborate April Fool’s Day joke.
Today it’s back to reality.
full of sound and fury
signifying nothing
One thing is clear tonight, Trump started this war with no goals, fought it with no strategy, and now is trying to end it with no grasp of reality.
Didn’t need to be a speech - could’ve just been a tweet.
Well that was . . . something.
Small point, but if “they don’t want to work” they are not unemployed.
'We don't need the Strait of Hormuz' is the new 'foreigners pay the tariffs.'
II bulls continue to drop (down to 35.2) and bears climb (up to 31.5) as bull-bear spread drops to its lowest level in nearly a year.
Stocks don't usually do well when bulls are heading for the exits.
Wait. What? The president misspoke? Oh, my.
perhaps, but there will be many too choose from. . .
At this point in the cycle, we don't have a low until after we have a panic.
And we have not yet had a panic. . .
It's asymmetric:
US loses by not winning.
Iran wins by not losing.
Trump approval poll (Ipsos)
Approve 36%
Disapprove 62%
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
“Traders” doing a lot of work in that sentence.
Trump threatened Iran's energy sites. Iran then threatened US allies’ energy sites and warned it would completely close the Strait of Hormuz. And Trump backed down.
Now Iran knows that its threats and leverage are effective against Trump.
ART OF THE DEAL.
Can see why fed funds futures are no longer pricing in any additional rate cuts this year.
Sometimes you need to get really drunk to start sobering up.
