3rd time unlucky at hardening resistance around the 261.8% Fib extension just below 7,150? Volume and for that matter index options activity very weak again Wed

Or would have been I should, prior to starmer's courageous change of course. But let's not give him any credit for that, eh, and instead strictly deal with matters on a sequential first in first out accounting system basis

i see the student politics get Starmer committee has shifted the line of attack from the easily refutable Karen Pierce had an excellent working relationship with the Trump admin, to the much more nebulous the embassy had good relations with Trumpworld. But good -- that would be their fkin job 👍

update:

No just actual facts

What Karen Pierce had built up an excellent working relationship with the Trump II administration between his inauguration 25th Jan 2025, and Mandy's appointment 10th Feb? Tail end of a Trump I? Another team. Colour me sceptical. As for Pierce's gender, my belief is Trump a misogynist 👍

What exactly are you asserting as a fact?

top story: Politico, dateline March 20, 2026. Indy, 6 Feb 2026

Contemporaneous they are not!

Trump calls the shots tho, uzi machine gun style. Only opinion that matters, and when Mancy was on TV, he was usually standing behind him in the Oval office!

Sorry, but doesn't really pass the smell test imv that Trump would do business with a woman - any woman - on same terms as a fellow Epstein buddy.

Nasdaq 52wk highs have actually been pretty good, Fri only just shy of the mid Jan 15m record, and as far as i can make out what's largely driving this is S&P 600 Tech at an ATH Fri with rel strength vs the broad mkt (top win) at a >2yr high testing the LT downtrend

10yr JGBs - Looking like that 3yr cycle low may be in place, albeit with the pattern suggesting a retest of the recent low is likely ST. Last 3yr cycle up-phase only 2.5m long; my sense is this one could be more durable, if in fact already underway!

By accident or design that's also where the new Fed RMP QE style balance sheet expansion facility is operating!

Ponzis ($ZN 10yr, red) vs $SPX - directionally stil positively correlated post the late Mar lows but the IT low I had been looking for ~late next wk if anything now looks more like a high! Possibly due to a change in dom LT cyclicality to down, albeit with a LT 3yr low likely now in JGBs.

$SPX - Crayon drawing fyi

for sake of good order noticed an error crept into my $PCCI decomposition chart sometime mid March with the apparent index put side instead just showing calls. So recent discussion of record-breaking call volumes correct, but apologies for the chart error now corrected:

Software - Distant history from the end of pre-Opex wk before Trump came out pumping $PLTR, and hey presto the starting pistol signal the market was being taken in hand with Software rising phoenix like from failing support to lead #2 subsector in Tech IT Svcs by SRS+5.2% last wk reprieved for now!

Rotation - some change into expiry with bombed out areas S/W making the running in Tech and options behemoth $TSLA largely singlehandedly responsible for sending Cons Goods SRS+, as esp Inds AI related waned. Meanwhile Energy worst but $CL IT low perhaps arrived Fri. Mean reversion time??!!

Sorry, but afraid I find all the handwringing about Mandy a little insufferable. Was he dodgy with a string of extremely dodgy relationships? Sure, and that's precisely his eminent qualification as Trump point man, himself involved in the same and even more dodgy circles. Realpolitik folks; grow up

and there you have it, another ginormous index call buying spree extending throughout the day, with a bonfire lit under Fri's mnthly options expiry by Trump's premarket Mid East announcement, and equities volume ok but nothing remotely comparable to action in the options casino:

...and those that did punting into recently beaten dn defensives/Energy, while big cap beneficiaries surging on options led action recent days waned, along with Financials led by I-Banks/Regionals and the Housing complex with Bubblers at a 3.5yr SRS low, and honorary Inds AI groups weak 2nd day

💡No real doubt Trump is actively trying to manipulate mkts the only open points being motives/beneficiaries, and as news of fruits of peace talks Tue coincident with blowout $CVOLI idx call action breaks, another HughJazz idx call haul Thu with max($PCCI)=0.84x. Few showed up to take hand-off tho 🚩

...And major internals nonconfirmations in cumulative breadth/AD Line and especially super weak 52wk highs.

Clearly the play rn is to try to broaden the rally out from the ultra narrow AI bubble leadership observed off the end Mar lows. We shall see!

Gotta be a nope with $DJUS setting a marginal new ATH, but nevertheless an interesting day with many current leaders esp honorary AIs in Inds leading dn and $AMZN red most of day with big cap momo SRS-0.9% while options neutron star $TSLA got 'taken in hand' SRS+6.9%; upside capitulation a process!

Big Cap Momo - yep, fresh px ATH Tue, imv likely triggering that blow out idx options capitulation. Urge to believe everything is back to normal no doubt a powerful motivation and bearish view prone to repeated negative conditioning over the past 2 decades. We're not in Kansas any longer imv tho :-o

Rotation - taking a step back to the sector level, and within the 3 leading sectors internal participation extremely narrow; Tech is Sems and internet, Cons Svcs is Broadline/$AMZN and a little DIYretail and Inds is honorary AI groups Electrical/Electronic and Constr & Mats. Bubble alive - but well?

$QM / $CL Crude Oil - yep, 5th triangle leg looks complete in the NY aftermkt. Pattern is likely done, albeit with the proviso the 5th triangle leg may itself subdivide in 5, but that should become apparent very soon, with new momo highs otherwise expected in the next wk or so

$SPX ST - yep, still seemingly tracking, tho tbh didn't fully expect the magnitude of Tue's rally but also not the blowout $CVOLI index call volume smashing the prior record by a wide margin (on best equities volume in 4tds but by no means exceptional and blocks soft). Smells of upside capitulation!

I've first hand experience cooking whale; heat a little oil in a frying pan until hot. Sear on one side then turn. Wait for thick black smoke to fill Norwegian chalet then evacuate as whale oil catches. Call fire brigade. Throw steak in bin when gone. Get chicken and chips at diner

Amusing to see the Christian right turning to the theory that Trump is the antichrist. For how else hath he deceiveth the righteous? A paradox. Or not!