Nice

Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports within weeks Gas producer says it will take ‘weeks to months’ to restore deliveries after Iranian drone strike

Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports within weeks ft.trib.al/JQxKy5e

Europe confronts threat of another energy crisis Rerouting of LNG tanker bound for France to Asia signals escalating competition for gas supplies due to Iran war

Full story here: www.ft.com/content/d48f...

Why South Asia’s Regimes Keep Falling | Journal of Democracy The government of Nepal has become the third South Asian government to collapse amid mass protests in three years. It will take more than elections to restore stability. Young protesters want to see…

I have a new article out in the Journal of Democracy comparing mass protests and government collapse in 2025 Nepal, 2024 Bangladesh, and 2022 Sri Lanka:
www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclu...

EU Commission to slap duties on Israeli goods, Kallas tells Euronews The European Commission is proposing to reimpose duties on Israeli goods in response to the war in Gaza and ongoing violations in the West Bank, Euronews can exclusively reveal. #EuropeNews

🚨 Scoop by me. EU to propose reimposing duties on israeli trade over war in Gaza

www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Journal of European Integration Europe and the United States-China Rivalry. Volume 47, Issue 6 of Journal of European Integration

I am extremely proud and pleased to see this major academic work on European autonomy and U.S.-China rivalry published as a special issue by the Journal of European Integration. All articles are open access! More below👇🏻

www.tandfonline.com/toc/geui20/4...

"Without “cardinal change” Bulgaria’s entire water system will collapse, deepening inequality in the European Union’s poorest member state, with rising water and food prices as well as risks to public health."

Nice chart.
And a really useful looking ebook.

cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Portrait of a young person smiling, wearing a patterned tie and a checkered jacket, posing against a plain background.

21 May 1927 | Czech Jewish boy, Otto Fink, was born in Vroutek.

He was deported to #Auschwitz from Theresienstadt ghetto on 26 October 1942. He did not survive.

Live updates: Pakistan and India agree to ceasefire after weeks of tensions | CNN India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire after back-and-forth strikes heightened fears of a wider conflict. US President Donald Trump made the surprise announcement on social media, though an Ind...

“on Friday morning, the US received alarming intelligence…
While they declined to describe the nature of the info… it was critical in persuading the three officials that the US should escalate its involvement” edition.cnn.com/world/live-n... My guess: Pakistani nuclear signals

A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)

Big expectations in Brussels as the European Commission prepares to (finally) unveil the results of the first investigations under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).

Apple and Meta will reportedly be fined for non compliance. The announcement comes in the middle of the EU-US trade talks.

A portrait ID photo of a young smiling woman.

21 April 1923 | A Czech Jewish woman, Milada Fischlová, was born in Prague.

She was deported to #Auschwitz from the ghetto in Theresienstadt on 26 January 1943. She did not survive.

A woman wearing a short-sleeved evening dress. Her hair reaches behind her ears - very wavy on one side. She is wearing a pendant around her neck.

1 April 1911 | Czech Jewish woman, Edita Lagusová, was born in Prague.

She was deported to #Auschwitz from Theresienstadt ghetto on 6 October 1944. She did not survive.

Black and white portrait of a young boy with dark short hair. He is wearing a shirt and a jacket.

21 March 1925 | An Italian Jew, Sergio Mieli, was born in Rome.

He arrived at #Auschwitz on 23 October 1943 in a transport of 1,035 Jews deported from Rome. He did not survive.

German lawmakers float ‘Euro Eyes’ spy network amid uncertainty on US intel Senior German lawmakers sound alarm bells that a sudden cutoff could leave Europe dangerously exposed.

The Bundestag’s top intelligence experts are calling for a European spy network, warning that Europe can’t rely on intelligence from the United States amid growing uncertainty.

Tusk is preparing to take Poland nuclear:

“Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons.

“This is a serious race - a race for security, not for war.”

(WSJ) - The world economy could face a crash similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s unless the U.S. rows back on its plans to impose steep tariffs on imports, a senior official at the International Chamber of Commerce warned.

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

words I never imagined writing in my lifetime.....

General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former Nato deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, has told Times Radio:

"I think we have to assume, after the events of the last 10 days, that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally"

‘Trump is abandoning Ukraine and wants a weaker EU’: Dominique de Villepin on Europe’s moment of truth The former French PM says the US is no longer an ally of Europe – but has joined Russia and China as an ‘illiberal superpower’

‘Trump is abandoning Ukraine and wants a weaker EU’: Dominique de Villepin on Europe’s moment of truth

In these turbulent times, staying informed about global affairs is more essential than ever. Discover the curated Geopolitics Starter Pack, designed to provide you with expert insights and comprehensive analysis. Check it out here: go.bsky.app/5MTyEWK #geopolitics #foreignaffairs #polisky

Blimey. Asked about Trump, Merz says he’s in close contact with European leaders about becoming “independent” from US (and confesses “I never thought I’d say that on TV show”). Casts doubt on value of NATO summit in June.

This from a die-hard Atlanticist. Things are moving fast.

UK marketplace sellers face ‘second Brexit’ hit from Trump’s US import rules End of ‘de minimis’ policy for Chinese goods also expected to hit bigger fashion retailers such as Asos and Boohoo Many UK-based independent sellers on marketplaces such as eBay and Amazon could suffer a significant hit to US sales from planned changes…

UK marketplace sellers face ‘second Brexit’ hit from Trump’s US import rules

Quite telling that before #MSC2025 has even officially started, there are already two competing breakfast events on nuclear deterrence in /for Europe.
#Zeitenwende

Earthquake swarm beneath the Aegean Sea Greek government is responding to elevated risk of large earthquake

🧪⚒️

A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling the Greek islands. Today marked the largest event in the swarm so far (M5.1). Schools are closed and emergency crews have deployed.

Could the swarm trigger a really big earthquake, like the M7.8 in 1956?

Read more on Earthquake Insights:

As someone who has reported on AI for 7 years and covered China tech as well, I think the biggest lesson to be drawn from DeepSeek is the huge cracks it illustrates with the current dominant paradigm of AI development. A long thread. 1/

Sudan’s Military Has Used Chemical Weapons Twice, U.S. Officials Say (Gift Article) The determination comes as the United States prepares to announce sanctions against the Sudanese military chief, saying there is strong evidence of atrocities in the country.

Sudan’s military has recently used chemical weapons on at least two occasions against the RSF in remote areas of Sudan. According to US officials, it was clear that General Burhan had authorized their use, @declanwalsh.bsky.social & @julianbarnes.bsky.social report

www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/w...

There wasn’t room to fit it in the post but you’re right - the research shows this impacts rates of parenthood.

We’re starting to see some specific research on that now. For 20-25 year olds, having a home increases the chance of having a child by 32%.

Old portrait of a young boy dressed in a light-colored shirt and has a soft smile.

13 January 1943 | A transport of 1,210 Jews deported from Berlin arrived at #Auschwitz. SS doctors selected 127 men to be registered in the camp.

The remaining 1,083 people were murdered in gas chambers. Helmuth Press was among them. He was 13 years old.

Outstanding and sobering summary of the state of the war in Ukraine