@ccfang819.bsky.social my PhD student @unibonn.bsky.social and coauthor of the below 👇 paper is now also here at bsky. Follow recommendation 😉

Making Event Study Plots Honest: A Functional Data Approach to Causal Inference Event study plots are the centerpiece of Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis, but current plotting methods cannot provide honest causal inference when the parallel trends and/or no-anticipation a...

📄 Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2512.06804
📦 R package: ccfang2.github.io/fdid/

Joint work with my PhD student Chencheng Fang — he did a fantastic job.
▶️ ccfang2.github.io

#CausalInference #DifferenceInDifferences #Econometrics #EventStudy #Statistics #RStats #AcademicResearch

Making Event Study Plots Honest: A Functional Data Approach to Causal Inference Event study plots are the centerpiece of Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis, but current plotting methods cannot provide honest causal inference when the parallel trends and/or no-anticipation a...

• Pre-treatment: infimum-based SCBs validate the honest reference band

• Post-treatment: supremum-based SCBs identify effects that truly differ from it

Making Event Study Plots Honest: A Functional Data Approach to Causal Inference Event study plots are the centerpiece of Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis, but current plotting methods cannot provide honest causal inference when the parallel trends and/or no-anticipation a...

Honest causal inference accounts for this bias by testing effects against an honest reference band (zero ± bias).

Our contribution:
We make event-study plots honest using simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs).

🤓 We use infimum- and supremum-based SCB!

Event-study plots in DiD are incredibly persuasive—but, honestly, not always honest.

Why?
If parallel trends or no anticipation fail, DiD estimates are biased. Testing against a zero-effect null then becomes misleading.

🚨New 📄: arxiv.org/abs/2512.06804

#CausalInference #EconSky #StatsSky #rstats

These are the materials for our 1-semester course

Introduction to Programming with R

It's geared towards 1st-year bachelor students without any prior programming experience. #rstats

discdown.org/rprogramming/

Chencheng Fang, Dominik Liebl: Making Event Study Plots Honest: A Functional Data Approach to Causal Inference https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.06804 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.06804 https://arxiv.org/html/2512.06804

👋 Our first post!

We are the #ResearchData & #OpenAccess Service Centers at @unibonn.bsky.social.

We:
📖 fund OA publications
📝 consult & train on data management
🎓 offer tools for processing & sharing research data

We'll share insights, resources & updates from our work!
#OpenScience #UniBonn

Applied HPC with R book-hpc.ggvy.cl/ #rstats

"Register now" with an image of a megaphone

StatFest 2025 is here and it's free and virtual. Undergrad students from historically underrepresented groups connect with industry experts in statistics, data science, and academia. Sept. 11, 18, & 25. Register today. community.amstat.org... #StatFest2025 #DataScience #Statistics #STEMCareers

Using time series graphs to make causal claims be like

Group photo: graduates celebrated the 20th anniversary of ist Universitätsfest in the Hofgarten.

🎉Congratulations to our graduates 2025!
Forever Uni Bonn - Over 2,000 graduates celebrated the 20th anniversary of its Universitätsfest — with over 5,000 of their friends and family — a new record. Read more www.uni-bonn.de/en/news/20-j...
(c) Marc John/Uni Bonn
#UniversityOfBonn #ForeverUniBonn

Hi #EconSky! I will be teaching intro statistics with #rstats next academic year. Any suggestions for free learning resources for students and/or teaching materials?

Nice thread on simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) by @noahgreifer.bsky.social !

Not many papers explore varying critical values—despite cool uses like narrower or fairer bands.

Bit of shameless self-promo if you're into this 😉:
academic.oup.com/jrsssb/artic...

#econsky #statsky

Two teaching awards.

Zwei auf einen Streich! 😊
#EconSky #rstats

🚨 Big milestone for Rdatasets 🚨

The web archive now hosts 3400+ free and documented CSV datasets. Fantastic for teaching and testing!

And {Rdatasets} is a new #RStats 📦 for easy download and search

Web archive: vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasets

R 📦: vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasetspkg

Just learned something new. You can buy spurious citations that will show up on Google Scholar -- and people do.

From @newyorker.com

New working paper:

"Testing the Missing Completely at Random Assumption for Functional Data,"
joint work with Max Ofner*, S. Hörmann and D. Kraus.

As far as we know, it's the first paper on testing MCAR for functional data.

*Look out for this smart guy.

Foto of Grace Whaba.

Grace Wahba's award winning paper.

Grace Wahba, "the mother of smoothing splines," won the International Prize (aka the Nobel) in Statistics #stats for her representer theorem.
youtu.be/8Ae_QzwwR_U?...

So well deserved! I guess, one could also give her the price again in two years for her work on Generalized Cross-Validation.

Two men and a woman laughing.

Played through Sportify? We got you. Pointed and scientific - that's the #Hypothesis #Podcast from the #UniversityofBonn.

Listen now: www.uni-bonn.de/de/universit...

For our next episodes: Which topic would interests you the most?

Figure contains a qr-code to the homepage of the workshop: https://www.mathematics.uni-bonn.de/hcm/events/workshops-conferences/workshop_functional-data-analysis-a

🚨 To all scientists interested in functional data analysis:

Functional Data Analysis:
Workshop in Honor of Alois Kneip
Date: June 12-13, 2025

Registration: Open until January 26, 2025

www.mathematics.uni-bonn.de/hcm/events/w...

Pls help spread the word. 🙏

You may have all see this as an example of survivorship bias
#MathSky

You puzzled me with this plot. My first thought was that it doesn't really look like the condition mean of Y | X=x, Group=blue.
2nd thought: No! Paul is doing it right, for sure.
Finally, "Sherlock"-me found the missing blue dots behind the black ones. 🕵️

Hello world

Freue mich auch. Wollte Roland und die ganze Gruppe schon lange mal besuchen.

Funny question at stackexchange.

"I have a feeling he is deceiving himself."

(I know it's old, but it's such a beautiful short story.)

#statssky #econsky

stats.stackexchange.com/questions/18...

Riesige Glückwünsche an Claudia Goldin zum diesjährigen Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften! Worum geht es bei ihrer Forschung? Ein paar Eindrücke aus ihrer Forschung zum Arbeitsmarkt (auf deutsch).

There is a new feature to show some posts from other feeds in your following feed. 📈📉