Tacking on a chart that didn't make the paper, and which I think is still quite interesting-

(And many thanks to @marleymorris.bsky.social, @johnspringford.bsky.social, @benbrindle.bsky.social, and @charlesjkenny.bsky.social for providing thoughts on drafts!)

So, which occupations should keep access to visas- and remain on the Temporary Shortage List?

We provide an index for prioritising occupations by need across a range of factors- including the strategic importance of their work. We've made this interactive, so you can tweak the parameters.

We're particularly concerned about occupations relevant to the Clean Energy sector.

The Home Office suggests that these policy changes will not impact decarbonisation goals; our modelling leaves us much less sure.

Renewables buildout is urgent, and we think bottlenecks should be less acceptable.

Moreover, even if this goal is achieved, it will still leave employers with a multi-year labour bottleneck.

Many apprenticeships take several years to complete; in that time there will be a shortfall of trained workers.

This might be fine- but policymakers should be aware of trade-offs.

The government's goal is to boost employers' investment in apprenticeships by cutting off access to already-trained workers.

This might work. But the current data makes me unsure: SW visas for occupations on the MAC's list fell 44% from 2023/24 - 2024/25, but apprenticeship starts stayed level.

The results are striking: many of these occupations have a high reliance on international recruitment.

To answer our questions we harmonise visa, apprenticeship, and labour market data to examine visas' contribution to new trained labour flows.

(We publish this data alongside the paper; I think it’s pretty interesting in its own right.)

There are 82 occupations under consideration (by the Migration Advisory Committee - MAC) for a place on the TSL.

Most of them (some big exceptions) rely heavily on the Skilled Worker visa for recruitment: being cut from the list would essentially cut them off from international labour supply.

Which Occupations Should Get Skilled Worker Visas? Informing the UK’s Visa Reform The UK’s 2025 immigration reforms will restrict Skilled Worker visas for many mid-skill jobs, raising questions about which roles should retain access given labour shortages and industrial strategy go...

New paper!

The UK plans to restrict visa access for ‘mid-skill’ occupations- except for those on the Temporary Shortage List of exemptions.

We ask: What effects would loss of visa access have for labour supply? Which occupations should be on that list?

The macroeconomic case for investing in climate adaptation - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment A groundbreaking new synthesis of the economic and fiscal risks arising from physical climate change and the economic case for investing in adaptation to climate impacts.

New @granthamlse.bsky.social report makes the case for investing in adaptation, as this "can yield substantial macroeconomic returns, resulting in a ‘triple dividend’:
- preventing losses
- stimulating economic activity
- providing social and environmental co-benefits"
www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminst...

Reform UK donor runs company linked to sanctioned Iranian conglomerate Dubai-based Orico described by French court as ‘subsidiary’ of a group that is majority owned by foundation with close ties to Islamic regime

The full story here-

This is quite a chart and story from the FT. A bizarre case.

John Simpson, "a church warden and conveyancer", has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Reform; he nominally runs a UK interior decorating agency, but it seems is also listed as manager of a Dubai LLC ultimately run by Khameini.

Big Increases in Aid for the UK’s Overseas Territories, with Deep Cuts Elsewhere In this blog, we focus on the biggest winners from the recent FCDO allocation: the British Overseas Territories, islands which are largely self-governing but remain under UK sovereignty.

Given the pauperisation of the UK's aid programme, these allocations decisions are now very zero-sum and (surely) impossible to justify.

'By 2028/29, it is plausible that 4000 people get more aid than the whole of Sudan (a country with 50.4 million), supposedly a priority country.'

Big Increases in Aid for the UK’s Overseas Territories, with Deep Cuts Elsewhere In this blog, we focus on the biggest winners from the recent FCDO allocation: the British Overseas Territories, islands which are largely self-governing but remain under UK sovereignty.

'Pitcairn has never been on any ODA-eligible list. In its reporting the UK has got around this by labelling aid to Pitcairn as going to “Oceania, regional” or, more bizarrely, attributing it to Saint Helena (which is around 8,000 miles away).'

Very strange!

A fascinating blog by CGD colleagues on UK aid budget shenanigans.

Notably, the UK has slashed aid funding to the poorest states, while rubberstamping a huge (41%!!) increase in aid to *its own overseas territories*.

Which (being rather wealthy) might not even be eligible to receive aid!

(Update: he has now been fired. But an interesting admission all the same.)

Exclusive interview with Reform UK’s housing spokesperson Simon Dudley Jess McCabe meets Simon Dudley, Reform UK’s new housing spokesperson, to find out his views on development and who should be eligible for social housing

An interesting admission by Reform's housing spokesperson in a new interview-

that immigration will be needed to support housebuilding targets (which he suggests Reform will place well above Labour's 300,000 per year).

As I recall Trump's justification for crushing offshore wind was the protection of whales.

This move 'will hurt endangered species across the Gulf including the Rice’s whale... there are only 51 such whales left in the wild after the species was decimated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill.'

Por medio del cual se reconoce... | Proyectos de Ley | Congreso Visible Por medio del cual se reconoce la condición de desplazamiento forzado interno por causas asociadas al cambio climático, la degradación ambiental y los desastres

It broke down in 2024. I think a refiled version passed Congress in December last year, but it doesn't yet seem to have been promulgated.

I'm sceptical it'll be useful when passed (its success seems to hinge on being able to establish causality), but I guess we'll see how implementation goes.

Some striking charts on the impending fertiliser -> agricultural yield issues caused by the ripple effects of the Iran war, from a new FT article.

Following the invasion of Ukraine, new grain supply averted the worst. But we cannot magic up new supply of fertiliser.

www.ft.com/content/27e0...

Really interesting article, and the central issue (of ensuring adaptation support is not regressive) will be a challenge everywhere.

'The culprit is a council tax calculation based on 1991 property values... Some of Britain’s poorest areas are emerging as the biggest losers [from] flood insurance.'

New paper and blog: emigration as a growth strategy.

Even as the strategy of using manufactured exports to kickstart rapid growth is showing its age, a strategy focused on the movement of people rather than goods is coming into its own...

The losses from the strikes on Qatar equal ~8% of Qatari GDP.

Qatar hosts ~2.1 million migrant workers, who send ~$12 billion annually in remittances to countries such as India, Nepal, and the Philippines.

Beyond even the energy price shocks, the effects of this war will be felt elsewhere.

'Malengo is a program that provides a loan for Ugandan students to attend university... [and] then get jobs in Germany...

They now estimate that the program produces 28x the returns of a cash transfer program.'

MAC-list visas by nationality ...

I found some of it surprising.

E.g. how many marketing professionals / actors seem to be recruited internationally.

And just how many key trades (welders! Electricians! Engineers! Sheet metal workers! Technicians!) are from the Philippines. They are essentially subsidising UK industrial strategy.

MAC-list visas by nationality ...

Interesting widget that got cut from an upcoming piece on UK Temporary Shortage List visas-

Occupations (SOC2020) under consideration for TSL status by visas / country of origin / Industrial Strategy sector.

(NB this graphic includes all visas, not just Skilled Worker- although most will be).

The politics of adaptation vs. retreat (who gets prioritised for expensive risk reduction) are going to get very dicey.

Skills on the Move: Linking Labour Mobility and Vocational Training Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) is often touted as an important tool in low- and middle-income countries struggling with high levels of unemployment and large skills gaps. As a ...

Linking TVET w/ labour mobility could improve quality & outcomes, while supporting employers & economic growth: the manifestation of “aid in the national interest.”

New @cgdev.org research w/ @irexintl.bsky.social outlines why donors should do this & how they can.

www.cgdev.org/tags/skills-...

There's a moral hazard risk here. If households in high-risk areas expect ongoing (potentially costly) support to be able to stay, this could create issues.

In the Pakistan case studied this risk may be outweighed by the benefits; elsewhere there will be trade-offs to consider very carefully.