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Posts by Gary Weatherhead

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Collaboration and Resistance: Tracking Transnational Repression in 2025

NEW REPORT: Authoritarian collaboration fueled #transnationalrepression in 2025, with at least 30 governments reaching beyond their borders—using tactics from assassinations to detentions—to intimidate or otherwise silence their critics. Read the full report: freedomhouse.org/report/speci...

5 days ago 6 3 0 1
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Piercing the Professional Imaginarium? Educational Lessons from The Post Office Project The following is the written text of a keynote address delivered last week to the Association of Law Teacher’s Conference 2026

I gave a short keynote at the Association of Law Teachers Annual Conference last week. Why law degrees need to take lawyering more seriously... substack.com/home/post/p-...

8 hours ago 4 4 0 0
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Japan scraps a ban on lethal weapons exports in a change of its postwar pacifist policy Japan is scrapping a ban on lethal weapons exports, a major change of its postwar pacifist policy as the country seeks to build up its arms industry and deepen cooperation with defense partners.

Japan scraps a ban on lethal weapons exports in a change of its postwar pacifist policy

apnews.com/article/japa...

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English version of today’s judgment now available on Eur-Lex: eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conten...

9 hours ago 16 10 0 0

The key point from Olly Robbins is that, in his view, Mandelson did *not* technically fail vetting - the vetting outcome was the FCDO decision on whether to grant, not any UKSV recommendation as part of that process...

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In these troubling geopolitical times, what role can memory play in upholding the international rule of law?

Delighted to share a short essay out today on @justsecurity.org. A version of this was originally prepared for a forthcoming Law Commission of Canada series on the rule of law.

1 day ago 0 1 0 0
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Bulgarians vote in high-stakes election Bulgarian voters are going to the polls for the eighth time in five years amid a long-running political crisis. A new left-leaning, pro-Russian party under former President Radev is seen as favorite t...

Bulgarian voters are going to the polls for the eighth time in five years. A new left-leaning, pro-Russian party under former President Radev is the favorite to win

p.dw.com/p/5CRCf

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The Expert Trap and the Next War what forecasting failure tells us about the future

a deep dive into many bad predictions, and a few good ones, and what they mean for thinking about future conflict

6 days ago 92 27 10 10
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Quantum computers could usher in a crisis worse than Y2K The day when a quantum computer manages to break common encryption, or Q-Day, is fast approaching, and the world is not close to being ready

The day when a quantum computer manages to break common encryption, or Q-Day, is fast approaching, and the world is not close to being ready

1 week ago 2 4 0 0
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Our evaluation of Claude Mythos Preview’s cyber capabilities | AISI Work We conducted cyber evaluations of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview and found continued improvement in capture-the-flag (CTF) challenges and significant improvement on multi-step cyber-attack simulati...

This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era.

Hear me out ( 🧵) 1/

www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...

1 week ago 230 137 4 27
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In the latest article from our Seventh Edition, Martin Fitches and @michaelleger.bsky.social say history teaches important lessons for today’s policymakers.

Read the full article here: heywoodquarterly.com/how-pragmati...

#CivilService #History #GlobalEconomicOrder @blavatnikschool.bsky.social

1 week ago 3 3 0 0

There’s a lot of confusion right now among journalists and MP about secondary legislation and what a possible EU deal would mean.

A quick thread to clear a few things up on votes, Henry VIII powers & parliamentary scrutiny. 🧵

1/ First: what is a “normal parliamentary vote”?

1 week ago 16 11 2 2
Publication of report on the standards landscape | Ethics and Integrity Commission The Ethics and Integrity Commission promotes the highest standards in public life, reports to the Prime Minister on matters concerning ethical standards, and advises public authorities on the developm...

The Ethics and Integrity Commission has today published a report by Dr Rebecca Dobson Phillips on the institutions that regulate standards in public life in the UK.

Read the full report here: eic.independent-commission.uk/publication-...

1 week ago 1 1 0 1
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Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest

This looks like a return to section 2(2) of the European Communities Act 1972, under which for decades successive governments implemented EU law by secondary legislation. The scope of the power & level of parliamentary scrutiny will be important www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

1 week ago 48 18 2 6

Zach gets it exactly right. Orban was an authoritarian who built a rigged election system for his own gain. But Peter Magyar cracked the code - realizing that every vote in the countryside was worth two to three votes in the cities and so racked up countryside support, winning 2/3rds of the seats.

1 week ago 363 114 7 6
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How reforms under Patrice Talon have reshaped the electoral competition in Benin While voter turnout may not decide who wins the election, it will reflect how credible the electoral process is perceived.

How reforms under Patrice Talon have reshaped the electoral competition in Benin

via @africa.theconversation.com

theconversation.com/how-reforms-...

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Benin election: Romuald Wadagni and Paul Hounkpè in race to succeed President Talon Cross-border raids from militant Islamists are increasingly threatening the West African state's stability.

Fears over West Africa's Islamist insurgency dominate Benin's election campaign

Sunday's presidential election comes about four months after outgoing President Patrice Talon survived a coup attempt..

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

1 week ago 1 0 0 0
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The causes and consequences of Trump’s defeat The Islamabad negotiations were supposed to conclude the Iran War in such a way that the US and Israel would have something to show for the thousands of lives lost and ruined, the vast quantities of o...

This is my assessment of why Trump’s war went so badly wrong. Underestimating an enemy and a belief in a quick victory are familiar sources of failure, compounded in this sense by incredible ultimatums and delusional claims. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

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Peru Elects 2026: Ongoing Coverage of the Presidential Race Follow the major events on the campaign trail as Peru seeks stability among a crowded field of candidates.

Peruvians head to the polls on Sunday 12th April to elect a new president and Congress

#Peru Elects 2026: Ongoing Coverage of the Presidential Race by @ascoa.bsky.social

www.as-coa.org/articles/per...

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Scientists invented a fake disease. AI told people it was real Bixonimania doesn’t exist except in a clutch of obviously bogus academic papers. So why did AI chatbots warn people about this fictional illness?

Scary experiment: create a FAKE disease & upload FAKE studies to preprint servers to support and PRESTO AI thinks real.

Ugh. Good example of how easily AI can warp knowledge base...

Scientists invented a fake disease. AI told people it was real www.nature.com/articles/d41...

1 week ago 152 71 8 12
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Hungary: the election the world’s big powers want to win Orbán’s defeat would deprive nationalist conservatives across the world of a champion. Opponents see Sunday’s vote as a chance to halt autocracy

🗳️🇭🇺 Since the outcome will have immediate consequences for Europe and beyond, it is a vote that Washington, Moscow, Kyiv and Brussels all want to win.

1 week ago 12 8 1 0

A primer on Hungary’s electoral system.

Hungary has a mixed-member pseudo proportional electoral system.

106 elected in first past the post constituencies

93 by proportional representation in closed lists

1/

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Timeline cleanse

1 week ago 13 7 2 1

"The dispute cannot be reduced to a single branch of law. Any assessment of a Strait of Hormuz Closure must consider the law of the sea, the prohibition on the use of force, self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, and the rules governing military operations at sea."

FRAGMENTATION

1 week ago 14 4 0 1
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🚀 2026 Global Counterspace Capabilities Report — Now Available
SWF is proud to release the 9th version of its Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment report, edited by @vsamsondc.bsky.social and Kathleen Brett, with support from Emily Kunasek.
Thread below 🧵

1 week ago 2 3 1 2

Take your mind off other stuff… with something positive happening in the civil service

Antonia Romeo has set out her objectives, and they’re good!

Tl; dr - to lead a civil service of curious, confident, high performing stewards of the system

2 weeks ago 25 8 2 0
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Trump Threatens to Kill Thousands More Iranians in Unnerving Tirades In a blunt warning, Senator Chris Murphy tells us that “everybody in that chain of command has to think hard” about carrying out such a hideously inhumane order, which he described as “war crimes.”

If Trump bombs power plants in Iran, the humanitarian crisis will be horrific. Experts tell me to expect water shortages, closed hospitals, many deaths.

“We’ve never had a US president so proudly promise to commit war crimes," Sen Chris Murphy says. 1/

(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2087...

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🗳️🇪🇺 Our work is not just the rule of law (well, we have 'Democracy' in our name after all), our EU-funded projects Nets4Dem which is about building a network of networks of practitioners for innovative democracy just released it's annual report for 2025.

2 weeks ago 4 3 0 0
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War Crimes Rhetoric to Battlefield Reality: Slippery Slope to Total War on Iran Former JAGs warn that threats to strike Iran’s power plants would violate the law of war and endanger U.S. service members’ legal and moral obligations.

Important analysis on U.S. slide to "total war" with Iran.

Background:

UN Commission on Inquiry: “Russian armed forces’ waves of attacks ... on Ukraine’s energy-related infrastructure ... may amount to crimes against humanity.”

The authors are former military lawyers.

2 weeks ago 212 68 7 4
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“Acts or threats of violence the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population are prohibited.”

Geneva Convention Additional Protocol I
and
Department of Defense Law of War Manual, § 5.2.2

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