This administration is such a dumpster fire that this horrible news barely registers as a surprise.

Hope General Caine can keep blocking for another few years.

There's been kind of a running assumption that the polls can only be structurally wrong in favor of Republicans and uh that is not true.

This would be more persuasive if there wasn't really clear evidence of large persuasion gains, especially outside of Dixie.

Negative rizz

Well played

Yes, everything that is not the various candidate head-to-head questions and the Trump approval

All the policy questions are loaded and guaranteed to generate biased results

bsky.app/profile/ewig...

The very popular and only statewide-elected Dem is running, and he's doing a good campaign that makes people realize Democrats aren't Satan

Hey @gregdoucette.bsky.social can I get a “cops are great”?

If people want to "unskew the poll," be my guest

I consider that a silly exercise that accomplishes nothing, as illustrated in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024

FWIW nothing in the horse race section struck me as surprising

➡️ Sands is popular, which is why he's the only statewide elected D in Iowa. He's going to generate coattails

➡️ Ohio is red, and has been since Trump. Hence even a popular D like Sherrod Brown losing by 4% in 2024

➡️ Maine leans D

Ironclad law of politics: "political technology is ideologically neutral"

There are definitely house pollsters that skew results to favor their party. There is no evidence Echelon Insights does that. The data is the data

bsky.app/profile/ewig...

For sure, the non-horse race poll questions had an objective

bsky.app/profile/dyas...

The poll was done by Echelon Insights, that's why it's their letterhead on the linked PDF

NetChoice just paid for it, which is why it's announced on the NetChoice website

bsky.app/profile/ewig...

PDF of the poll results here: netchoice.org/wp-content/u...

Ds polling ahead in Georgia, Iowa, Maine

Rs polling ahead in Ohio

Not if Donald Trump Jr has anything to say about it.

Giving a middling commander an army with a less than 10% attrition rate due to disease, and watching him absolutely stomp everyone else.

Any army before 1900 that had our current rate of sickness and disease would absolutely annihilate their opponents, even if completely restricted to the technology available at the time.

lol

Ukrainians should legit be immensely proud of how much they've improved their society between independence and today.

The glide path was to end up like Russia, Belarus, or Turkmenistan and instead they've built a flawed but real and deeply ingrained democracy.

The fact that Russia is barely treading water in its war with Ukraine & likely to ultimately lose the war is a real testament to how colossal of a gap there is now between the quality of Ukrainian & Russian governmental institutions, and that's despite Ukr ones being pretty crooked and incompetent!

Ukraine’s Second Miracle Year The war isn’t won, but for the first time in years, outright victory seems possible.

TLDR: both Russia and Ukraine are extremely war-exhausted but Russia appears to still be managing to fuck up much harder, despite some major unforced Ukrainian errors.

Russia's problem is that if it starts winning, with this level of burnout, Poland could turn this war around within a few months.

FTA: "If current trends continue, even the Russian Northern Fleet at docked at Severomorsk will soon be vulnerable."

tfw about to lose the Northern Fleet after losing the Black Sea Fleet, to a country which, it always bears mentioning, has not had a navy since 2022

Democrats getting more backlash for attempting redistricting in Virginia in response to completely unprecedented GOP powergrabs than Republicans have gotten for gerrymandering for decades is extremely grim shit ngl.

The idea that any privilege is absolute (in a moral/ethical sense) over the contents of what the privilege shields is so absurd.

“If there’s public interest in evidence proving a corporation has been systematically stealing its employees’ wages—correspondence between executives, falsified pay stubs—the choice of whether to release it is for the corporation, not an individual leaker.”

These guys already want us dead and have every intention of holding on through violence.

And Caesar crossed the Rubicon because he was a criminal who kept repeatedly committing crimes and needed his military impunity to get away with it.

Rome's mistake was not knifing him before he got a legion.

Looks like the prosecutors couldn’t make it stand up in court

I’m sure I’m gonna be bombarded with counter examples and that’s fine, but truly this seems like him driving headfirst into a brick wall in a way that nothing else has for the last decade.

Kind of wild but it seems like Iran is the first major (person/institution/country) with the power to draw blood that Trump has picked a fight with that doesn’t have the incentive to be like “eh let’s kind of humor him and wait it out until he’s gone.”

Most honest thing Clarence Thomas ever said was 'what I asked my peers about my obvious graft and they said no big whoop'