The Government should develop a social tariff on energy bills, providing targeted, temporary support based on household income should bills remain high come the winter. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
With the conflict's path deeply uncertain it remains possible that energy bills remain elevated well into the winter. If this transpires, the Government should not rely solely on existing policies that raise benefits and reduce energy bills.
Families will feel the effects of another year of frozen tax thresholds, which will drag down on incomes more than they did last year, but less than they did in 2023-24.
Universal Credit will see its first ever permanent real-terms increase. However, after years of below-inflation rises, the value of unemployment support will be 5 per cent below its 2010 level. Over the same period the state pension has grown by 20 per cent.
These price rises will be softened for some lower-income households by sorely needed benefit changes. Most notably, the end of the two-child limit will offer immediate relief to poorer families with three or more children, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty by the end of the decade.
Based purely on latest estimates of the energy-price shock a household in the bottom income decile would face an inflation rate of 3.8 per cent by the end of this year, compared with 2.9 per cent for the top decile – a gap of 0.9 percentage points.
A plausible best-case scenario – in which wholesale gas prices fall immediately to pre-war levels – would still mean around a £130 increase in the energy price cap in July. If the recent highs in gas prices become the norm, the price cap could increase by close to £440.
The tax year has started with a welcome fall in Ofgem’s price cap – reducing typical energy bills by £117 a year – but the good news won’t last for long.
Happy new tax year to all who celebrate! Here's a quick 🧵on the tax and benefit changes coming in this month in the context of rising energy bills. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Hummus and non-alcoholic beer have been added to the CPI basket... presumably driven by Resolution Foundation staff's consumption... www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
The scatter chart shows the voting history of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) since 2017 to present. It is annotated with March 2026, the most recent and a unanimous vote, and September 2021, the last occasion the MPC voted unanimously.
Unanimous in the face of uncertainty.
Yesterday's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was the first unanimous vote by the 9-strong Monetary Policy Committee in over 4 years.
Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, said: “The Middle East conflict has brought domestic cost of living concerns to the fore again. These pressures will be most acute with energy bills, where support should be prioritised. “But with rising gas prices today only likely to hit home this winter, the Government must resist pressure to rush out updated versions of old support schemes like the universal blank cheque approach of Liz Truss. Instead, it should think smartly about how new support can target vulnerable families with lower incomes and high energy needs. “The best way to do this is with a discounted price for lower-income families. The Government should start designing a scheme with energy companies now, so that it is operational in time for when temperatures start to drop.”
Efforts to deliver a new social tariff for energy bills should start now to help vulnerable families this winter.
Read our latest analysis ⤵️
buff.ly/bDPVzLB
In her speech yesterday, the Chancellor said the question people will be asking themselves at the next election is "are me and my family better off?"
So what is the answer likely to be? 🧵
Made my grand return to our inflation data response today after a couple of months of being busy working on our Unsung Britain book - here's the thread from James with everything you need to know!
Unsung Britain has faced crushing costs in recent years.
@lalithatry.bsky.social explains why inflation has not been experienced evenly across the income distribution 👇
Massive thanks to all the @resolutionfoundation.org team for contributing to this in some form, and a particular shout out to my co-authors @tom-clark.bsky.social and @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social !
Poorer families really have been unsung over the last 30 years, so we look at what's happened to their incomes, work, benefits, tax, housing, costs, debt, savings, health and care, and propose some policies that could help improve their situation.
Today we at @resolutionfoundation.org have published Unsung Britain, a book about the 13 million working-age families in the poorer half of Britain.
Big day tomorrow! Tune in to our conference tomorrow, and check out the book!
Chart showing proportion of household non-housing consumption spent on 'essentials,' for low-to-middle-income families & higher-income families: UK
Chart of the week gives you a sneak peak into 'Unsung Britain' – a new book we're publishing on Tuesday.
It shows that in the six years leading to last autumn, annualised inflation experienced by the poorest families ran at a rate that was 0.7 percentage points faster than for the richest families
🧵 New research on decarbonising UK farms and what it means for living standards.
The good news is decarbonisation should be manageable and won't cost the world - but it'll still be hard, as farming's in a fragile situation. Here's what we found 👇
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
We're almost a week away from the biggest event of the year: The @resolutionfoundation.org Unsung Britain conference, where we'll be telling you all about the book we're launching on the 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country. Be there or be 🟦. Sign up here:
Pay cheque: a word multiple people spent 10 minutes working out how to spell in the office the other week
I'd been waiting for this day for years and now it's finally arrived!
The Government’s Child Poverty Strategy published today is the first we’ve seen for 11 years – which in itself is a sea change. 🧵 👇
Quote graphic Lindsay Judge, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation said: The Government deserve credit for beginning to turn the tide on child poverty and getting rates falling for first time in nine years (outside of the pandemic). This Strategy should be celebrated for setting out a plan to lift hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty over the course of the Parliament. We have long-called for the abolition of the two-child limit which unfairly penalises larger families, the vast majority of whom are in work, have very young children, or disabilities in the family. Repealing it is the right decision, and the Government should be praised for doing so despite fiscal constraints. But other child poverty headwinds remain, not least the continued freeze in Local Housing Allowance which risks further squeezing the living standards of poorer families living in the private rented sector.
The Government's Child Poverty Strategy begins to turn the tide on child poverty.
As a result, child poverty rates will fall next year – the first time in nine years (outside the pandemic).
But other child poverty headwinds remain.
Read our full statement 👇
buff.ly/Tnqasir
In case you missed it, modifying the two-child limit won't reduce poverty by the end of the parliament, but scrapping it will. The first thing any meaningful child poverty strategy needs to do is scrap the two-child limit.
New @resfoundation.bsky.social analysis: Any of the rumoured half-measure options for repealing the two-child limit would leave child poverty HIGHER at the end of the Parliament than it was when the Government took power. 🧵www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/no-half-mea...
Real incomes for lower-income households have likely fallen this year, but a 6.2% rise in UC standard allowances next April should contribute to better news in 2026-27
