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Posts by Boaz Atzili

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פרופ' בועז אצילי: מנצחים ומפסידים במלחמת המזרח התיכון הראשונה זה נראה כזמן מתאים למאזן ביניים: מי הרוויח, מי הפסיד, עד כמה שניתן לשפוט בהינתן ערפל הקרב

In this article (in Hebrew) I make an interim assessment of winner and losers in the war. Losers: Israel, The US, Iran, Trump, Lebanon and the Palestinians. Winers: Israel's government, Iran's regime, Hezbollah, and Hamas. zman.co.il/676066/

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

A month into this war, who are the winners and losers so far? *Winers*: Netanyahu's government, IRGC, Hezbollah. *Losers*: Israel, USA, Iran, Trump, the Gulf States, Lebanon, Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and the world.

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Heroism, horror and the ‘pits of hell’: inside the last days of El Fasher Over two days in October 2025, up to 10,000 people are believed to have been massacred; a further 40,000 civillians from the Sudanese city are still unaccounted for. This is the story of what happened

It was the biggest massacre for decades - 10,000 Sudanese killed over two days. The international community knew genocide was inevitable. Why and how did it happen?

#KeepEyesOnSudan

www.theguardian.com/global-devel...

4 weeks ago 43 29 0 1
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Ayala Metzger is a dear friend and a courageous peace activist, known for her commitment to dialogue, empathy, and coexistence even in the face of deep conflict. Her strength has been especially evident through personal tragedy: 🧵

Please help me echo her words and courage. 🇮🇱🤍🕊️🇵🇸

1 month ago 17 4 3 2
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Huge boom in Jerusalem right now. Impact hundreds of meters from Al-Aqsa and Temple Mount.

(Not my video, but definitely my hearing of the boom)

1 month ago 11 8 0 0

Political science professors
Wendy Pearlman & @batzili.bsky.social wrote a whole book about why this is false.

The Lebanese state is weak, its Army may fracture at any moment. Yes, Beirut can do more, but pushing it through destroying state infrastructure is incredibly counter-productive.

1 month ago 2 2 1 0

The Trubio Doctrine: Dismantling diplomacy and bullying allies will make other countries help us when we need them. goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...

1 month ago 95 32 2 1

I kind of think of Trump's reputational challenges in this are not from home but internationally. What will others (allies and enemies alike) think about his resolve. He got himself into the corner with his belligerent tweets and the military mobilization and could not back down easily.

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Reminds me of Rumsfeld in the runoff to Iraq?

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

You know what’s the sort of thing you’d invest in if you wanted to reduce Iranian power over the global economy in the long run? Renewables, that’s what.

1 month ago 162 32 4 5
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Iran signaling it may deploy mines to disrupt Strait of Hormuz, U.S. sources say Iran is using smaller crafts to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two U.S. officials said.

Concerning reports that Iran is attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz. 1/
www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-mi...

1 month ago 166 58 9 15
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Who Fights for Reputation How psychology explains why a leader is willing to use military force to protect or salvage reputation In Who Fights for Reputation , Keren Yarhi-Milo provides an original framework, based on insights...

From all the IR theories that may explain bits and pieces of the puzzle of how we got to this stupid war, there is one that I think explains Trump's decision-making best: Keren Yarhi-Milo's book, Who Fights For Reputation? www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

1 month ago 0 1 1 0

Cruelty and stupidity

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

Even if you support the war (which I’m not), how can this move be justified? A war crime, a strategic blunder, and a man made environmental disaster blend into one.

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

I’ve read somebody that said “the Supreme Court could tolerate fascism but has drawn the line on merchantilism.”

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Are We in Weimar America? Similarities and Differences Living in Trump’s America as a historian gives me a better understanding of the subject I have been researching for most of my lifetime: Weimar Germany

momentmag.com/are-we-in-we...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

What is even more surprising, a majority of Israelis, as well, think that either the two state solution or a federation is the right one (despite decades of hostile government, media, and education system). Now the only thing to do is to get these majorities to positions of power...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

As much as people in the west might fret that the two-states-solution is dead, it (or its version of Israeli-Palestinian confederation), a large majority of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza still think it is the only realistic solution, despite of the horrors of the last three years.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
New Arab Barometer Findings Featured in Munich Security Conference Middle East Report – Arab Barometer

Important report from The Arab Barometer: www.arabbarometer.org/media-news/a...

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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Whistleblower Tipline Do you have a tip to share about unlawful or unconstitutional activity-or other wrongdoing-in a federal agency or other organization? Now more than ever, Congress depends on insiders to conduct its co...

If you work for ICE or Border Patrol and have information about unlawful conduct taking place at your agency, please speak up.

House Judiciary Dems want to hear from you. America needs to know about crimes committed in our name. As a whistleblower, you can share anonymously:

2 months ago 2692 1416 123 61
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Hizbullah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has been humbled The militia is still a force in Lebanese politics, but its ability to menace abroad has been severely weakened

A good account of Hizbullah in its diminished state. "Whatever autonomy Hizbullah once enjoyed died with Nasrallah. Decisions about weapons, strategy and escalation now come from Tehran." www.economist.com/middle-east-...

2 months ago 70 8 1 0

6/6 Third, the end of the struggle to bring home the Israeli hostage means that the formidable protest movement that was built around the issue may now be able to focus on the body who was the primary responsible for allowing Hamas to perpetrate October 7th: The government of Israel.

2 months ago 1 0 0 0

5/6 Will the plan go further, with Israeli withdrawal to its recognized borders, Hamas demilitarization, and the rebuilding of Gaza? Netanyahu's government, no doubt, will still try to spoil any advancement. Elements in the Hamas will cooperate with that spoiling. But there is a gleamer of hope.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0

4/6 Rafah Crossing will apparently be opened this week, and that means both much more robust access of aid to Gaza, and the start of functioning of the technocratic committee of Palestinians, which will gradually take over running the devastated area's day-to-day governing.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0

3/6 (some unverified reports even claim that Netanyahu had the information but prevented the IDF form attempting to retrieve the body).
Now, once Witkoff and Kushner informed Netanyahu that Phase 2 will happen with or without the return of Gvili's body, there is no reason to delay it's findings.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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2/6 Second, it's good news for the chances of moving on from the pseudo-ceasefire to a more stable end of war and the start of rehabilitating Gaza. Netanyahu used the fact that Gvili's remains not yet returned as an excuse to postpone the implementation of the second phase of the 20 Points Plan

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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Israel Recovers Remains of Last Captive in Gaza, Closing a Chapter

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/w...
1/6 The return of the remains of the last Israeli hostage is good news for several reasons: First and foremost, of course, it's good news for his family, friends and all the Israelis who fought both Hamas and their government to return all the hostages.

2 months ago 0 1 1 0

I just spoke with the White House after another horrific shooting by federal agents this morning. Minnesota has had it. This is sickening.

The President must end this operation. Pull the thousands of violent, untrained officers out of Minnesota. Now.

2 months ago 47045 13445 6074 1887

The shape of America today: destructive ice storm in the south, destructive ICE storm in the north, and a catastrophic President in the middle…🤷🏻‍♂️

3 months ago 6 3 0 0
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Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse? Five conditions determine whether revolutions succeed. For the first time since 1979, Iran meets nearly all of them.

www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

3 months ago 1 0 0 0