and especially in our over-estimation of the role of rationality in human decision making which is often instead truly random. My view is a concrete one, I hope. I don't feel I am retreating into philosophical niceties. I am being cautious in what I can hold to be true about the real world.
To me it's about context. An example might be in medical diagnosis where a life is on the line but data is unclear. Naive theorising about causality is not only valid, it is imperative. Yes. "...life requires it of us". However, we are apt to see causality everywhere, particularly in hindsight...1/2
Great doco on SkyArts: "SIMON! The Joy of Conducting". Especially enjoying the (BRSO) rehearsal footage, and, of course, insights into the conducting *process*. Lovely to hear about his time in Birmingham; Dad and I saw him interpret Sibelius No.2 at the Town Hall. Emotional for me - always. #Rattle
If I understand "strong implicit causal claims" to be cognitive biases, I think this is very true, yes. So, for me c) harden my resolve towards skeptical empiricism. (Sorry, if I have missed the mark.)
Understand why you are so pleased. The cover has a great texture 👍; love the "feel" of the book. Popper and NNT in the bibliography; what could be better? All good luck with it. 🌊
Some great stuff. Korngold is the highlight for me. Disappointed no BRSO with Rattle; saw them in Munich when he took over, and they were magnificent. 🎶
Front cover of "Prophecy" (21/4/2026) by Carissa Véliz, Associate Professor in Philosophy, Oxon. Cover illustration and design by Oliver Munday. The front cover has an image of what looks like a surveillance camera, a spherical white ball with a circular glass lens and a red LED (denoting recording is active). The camera is mounted on a black cylindrical base. The cover theme colours start from lemon yellow at the top, graduating through greens to mid-blue at the bottom. The title is rendered in bold, black block capital letters. Beneath it, the subtitle, in hand written black script, reads: "Prediction Power, and The Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI".
Got it today! Excited.
"Prophecy - Prediction, Power, and The Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI"
By @carissaveliz.bsky.social
#NowReading #BookSky #PhilSky
His correct approach, imho, should have been to say he wasn't made aware (ergo did not mislead, etc.), the process is flawed and needs review (leaning to your point) and *not* to sack a person following well-established process, as a political scalping to clear up *his* road crash of an appointment.
Actually this is a poor parallel. Temptation is to delete it. However, better to leave it to remind myself to think more clearly. Have different opinions now after Mr. Robbins's appearance in Select Committee. Cardinal error for me to go to press before the other bloke had had his say. Apologies.
Starmer talks of "a deliberate decision" having been made not to inform him of Mandelson's security vetting, when confidentiality is the cornerstone of the process. The FCDO makes the decision in the round and manages attendant risks with mitigations.
O.K. so the net is:
1. it was a mistake, entirely of Starmer's making, to appoint Mandelson as US Ambassador. Everything that has subsequently happened here is down to the Prime Minister.
2. Starmer has "sacked" a diligent, committed individual purely for doing his job to specification. 1/2
I now better understand the notion of keeping the UKSV process inside "a hermetically sealed box". FCDO civil servants (Robbins), as far as I can see, seem to have followed process strictly. Fault lies completely with the Executive (Starmer). His faux outrage to save his skin is beyond contempt.
I'm coming back to Bluesky ("The House") to correct the record. My attempt at an amusing (?) analysis regarding FCDO and UKSV was wide of the mark (wrong) when I used the word "override". Listening to Mr. Robbins in Committee I understand the process and decisions more clearly. 1/2
Let's try a parallel which is clearer for the nation. So, Peter Mandelson is to be the new striker for Premiership club X. Press conference. He fails the medical (you supply details). Director of football gives a green light anyway. He plays on Saturday, and limps off. Manager claims ignorance.
Have just seen BBC footage of Peter Mandelson out and about walking his dog. Expecting Chris Mason to ask what the PM knew about this and when.
Are you cashing out, or waiting for the CPLA invasion of Taiwan? #substrate
No, look. Putting aside for a moment the detail of Mandelson's security clearance, Stephen Flynn, #SNP, again asks the pertinent question. I précis. What does it say about the PM's judgement that Mandelson was even in the frame for the post, given Mandelson's Epstein links?
Hey, fantastic. Stay strong ✊.
Well, you gotta get up to get down, and he's got the manual. Great street portrait. Really like this one. ☀️
A stone Celtic cross on a plinth in a country churchyard. Dappled sunlight falls on what looks like yellowish York stone. All around it flows a sea foam of purple bluebells. A few yards behind, in the near distance, stand other gravestones, stone crosses and memorials. The Celtic cross has an ornate, "twisted rope" (knotwork) motif carved into the circle, left and right arm, and the upper part of the main upright limb. The overall colour palette is purple, warm yellow stone, sunlight and shade, and green foliage and grass.
Morning walk. Some thoughts on the past.
Have been thinking about the concept of "stop loss", a predetermined exit point used by traders to avoid wipeout. I don't think we practise this widely enough in life. Actually, life, to some extent, is about setting the stop loss and recognising asymmetry. Isn't it?
I have never before in my life pre ordered a book. I even rang the bookseller to check it had my request. Anticipation. Feels like the philosophy equivalent of the eve of Glastonbury. 🌞
Bright lights, big city. #Sydney
Lammy to the slaughter?
Fair point. 👍 Foolishly, I just worked backwards from an answer I assumed to be right. Which is some kind of cognitive bias on my side. What you say is very true. 🌞
Lots of complicated mathematics on the blackboard, but I'm mostly intrigued by the need just to add 17.2+2.8...
I love the touch of Russian roulette implicit in announcing your choice for ambassador before starting the required security vetting. 1 in 6 chance your brains are all over Johnson's expensive wallpaper - politically speaking.
A glass jar with a black screw top, containing yellow, red and orange coloured olives in oil. The jar is resting on the counter of my local coffee shop, along with a food and drink menu. Behind is another jar of green olives. The counter is made of some sort of beige coloured, polished stone; the stone contains veins of black, grey and ochre. Light reflects off the neck of the jar.
Sipping espresso and trying to guess the number of olives in the jar. #Alltag
Yeah. No, look, I've discovered practice isn't linear. Perfect one day, horrible the next. But playing music is just the best. Good luck with it, Chris. ✊
You're *never* shit at guitar, if you just enjoy it. I'm happy enough annoying the neighbours. Anyway, of course you should get a Strat. It's one of the laws of the Universe. ✊🎼🎸
