The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t. An epidemiologist explains what the evidence says about when the next pandemic might happen — and why the risk isn’t declining

I just published The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t. medium.com/p/the-world-...

Latest data from the Australian Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, show that Only 13% of people aged 75 and over are up to date with their booster. We need our governments, GPs and pharmacists working to improve this dire situation.

Do you have long COVID? You’re not alone — here’s what we know An epidemiologist explains what it is, how common it is, and what to expect

If you’ve had COVID and never quite felt the same afterwards — you’re not imagining it.

Long COVID sits in an uncomfortable space: real, common enough to matter, but still not fully understood.

I’ve written a plain-English explainer on symptoms, risk, and recovery.
medium.com/@adrian.este...

What the World Health Organization actually does — and why it matters An epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters

A quick explainer on what WHO actually does seems to be resonating.
I you haven't see nit:
medium.com/@adrian.este...

What the World Health Organization actually does — and why it matters An epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters

Most people have heard of the WHO.
Far fewer could explain what it actually does.

Having worked within it, I’ve tried to set out how it works in practice, and why it matters.
medium.com/@adrian.este...

I got called at 6am and sat alone in the dark for an hour. What it was actually like to explain a pandemic in real time

During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication.

I wrote about what it was actually like:
medium.com/@adrian.este...

We ask epidemiologists to explain complex, evolving evidence, often in real time, to a general audience.

We don’t train them to do it.

My paper explains why this matters

rdcu.be/e9ZSc
My new article about epidemiologists and the media. Some of us got thrown into the media spotlight during the early years of the COVID pandemic, with little or no training.

We study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s coming Controlling the spread of many infections, including measles, depends on trust in public health, which is eroding.

Another good article from The Conversation about how measles is impacting on the USA (and many developed countries).
theconversation.com/we-study-pan...

Journals are always struggling for reviewers, but many of them have such awful websites, it puts people off from accepting.

Thanks - I've been trying to also reestablish myself on X - not sure why! Also writing a book.

Talking Scrubs Talking Scrubs enable first-person communication for patients with permanent or temporary communication disabilities.

This is one of the many wonderful projects I am involved with www.talkingscrubs.com.au

Temporarily locked out of X due to a verification issue. Account still visible, just awaiting reset.

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue.

Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream.

For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week.

Small numbers — but a clear upward move.

If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue.

Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream.

For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week.

Small numbers — but a clear upward move.

If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

Adelaide Aquatic Centre closures look like a precautionary response, not an outbreak.

Parasites such as Cryptosporidium are uncommon, chlorine-resistant, and well known to pool managers. Temporary closures and deep cleaning are standard practice.
Risk remains low. Public health working as intended.

Case numbers reflect testing, not true spread.

Hospitalisations, aged-care outbreaks and wastewater matter more — but in Australia they’re reported inconsistently.

The new CDC has a real opportunity to fix this.

COVID, flu and RSV haven’t suddenly changed.

They now circulate year-round, but testing and reporting don’t.

When surveillance weakens, outbreaks aren’t prevented — they’re detected later.

Hospitalisations/aged-care homes/wastewater now matter more than raw case counts. Hopefully, CDC will help.

This is why raw case numbers now mislead.

Surveillance should shift from population-wide testing to fragments: hospitals, aged care, wastewater - however, very sporadic reporting in Australia at the moment.

When signals weaken, outbreaks don’t vanish — they arrive late.

Bottom line:
Low notifications ≠ low circulation.
This is mostly a surveillance effect, helped by strong population immunity — reassuring, but COVID hasn’t gone away.

Better indicators than case counts now include:
• hospital admissions
• aged-care outbreaks
• wastewater
• syndromic surveillance (e.g. FluTracking)

Other respiratory viruses are circulating year-round.
They dominate symptoms and further reduce COVID testing, blunting seasonal peaks.

7/8

There’s no major “breakout” variant right now.
Current lineages spread steadily but don’t cause the sharp peaks we saw earlier in the pandemic.

Population immunity is high.
After the 2024 winter wave and decent booster uptake, many infections are mild or repeat — and never tested.

Mild illness, holidays, and fewer GP visits mean fewer PCRs ordered — so notifications fall even if transmission continues.

Case numbers no longer track infections well.
Most notifications now come from PCR testing in hospitals and aged care, plus a small amount of voluntary RAT reporting. In summer, people test less.

COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why?
Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing.

Australia isn’t facing new viruses.

We’re facing weaker surveillance.

When testing and reporting drop, outbreaks don’t disappear — they’re just seen later, making events look sudden and alarming.