Misses on the first try, catches it if prodded slightly

I now have access to OpenAI's new o1-pro model, send me math or stats problems you'd like to test

(That LLMs can carry out 900 word conversations as well as typical humans is just an empirical fact! It's pretty obvious! Try it yourself!)

"Why are you not here? What shouts of laughter we should have at this glorious folly, and to hear the Professor of Philosophy at Pisa laboring before the Grand Duke, with logical arguments, as if with magical incantations, to charm the new planets out of the sky."

"Oh, my dear Kepler," says Galileo, "how I wish that we could have one hearty laugh together. Here, at Padua, is the principal Professor of Philosophy, whom I have repeatedly and urgently requested to look at the moon and planets through my glass, which he pertinaciously refuses to do..."

- With vacancies, the US House will now be 217 R - 215 D, so bills can only pass with unanimous Republican agreement (zero defections), or with Dem support
- Current bill to fund the US government expires on Dec 20
- Debt ceiling suspension expires on Jan 1
- Good Luck, Have Fun

Uh, I mean, if you're a public figure commenting on current events, it seems extremely reasonable to keep asking "so what policy is your actual goal?" even if you don't want to answer that because your desired policy is obviously crazy or stupid or evil

There are reasons to support this but it would help Republicans a lot

Three years out, before I joined Blue Rose, I successfully predicted 48/50 states and 1/2 candidates :)

(NM remained blue despite the Dem collapse with Latinos and Rs winning the popular vote, which is interesting! NM is 50% Latino)

Search by Latest shows everything that uses a term, in strict chronological order, so there's no weighting

"Biological sex is real" is 100% true - if it weren't real, it wouldn't need to be reverse engineered! But ~80% of people who say this follow it with an implicit (or explicit) "and therefore, trans people all need to be sent to the camps"

List of federal judges appointed by Joe Biden - Wikipedia

Worth noticing that the Biden admin tried really, really hard to appoint non-white judges, but non-white voters cared more about inflation, immigration, and crime, and swung massively to the right

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...

Musk Twitter doesn't represent public opinion any more than Woke Twitter did. Searching for fairly neutral terms on "Latest", to get a random sample, the ratio of right-wing to left-wing posts is like 5-10:1. Trump won the popular vote by ~1.03:1.

Chuck Grassley - Wikipedia

Quick reminder that Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has been in elected office since before President Obama was born, and would be older than Elvis if Elvis were still alive (seriously, look it up!). His current Senate term ends in 2028.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_G...

What is your reason for switching to Bluesky?

Organization is any group of people who communicate, work together, and divide labor; effective means that it succeeds in achieving difficult goals

What is the most effective organization that you have personal knowledge of?

Hi! Any good, intellectually engaging follow recommendations that are not mainly politics-posting? I'm glad for the Twitter alternative, but do not need more politics-posting. Thank you :)

What is the most effective organization that you have personal knowledge of?

This is true, but, like, the context is people trying to argue with me that I must not understand Science, because of course Science has proven that trans people are a hoax by Jews

Dems used to be very conservative on immigration! 2002 was only twenty years ago. Even Obama was way more conservative on immigration than Biden is

What percentage of transphobes who talk about "basic biology" would be able to tell you what this diagram means?

John XXIII was a pope who was also a pirate

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Jo...

What's your favorite statistical distribution? Mine is log-normal, it's what you get when you have many small factors that are multiplicative instead of additive :)