ACDC 2026 Institute Pascal The summer school will take place at Institute Pascal, Universite Paris-Saclay, from Monday the 31st of August to Wednesday the 16th of September 2026. The topic is "Past Warm Greenhouse Climates of t...

Learn climate physics in Paris! Apply to the ACDC Summer School on Warm Climates of the Cenozoic. I'm giving the opening lectures on the key role of CO2. www.uib.no/en/rs/acdc/1...

We have a pretty good understanding of the differences between GHG emission estimates, but when it comes to some sectors (e.g., land), estimates seem all over the place!

Why is this? @wflamb.bsky.social has you covered...
essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

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"Moving from long-range climate projections" sounds like the community would not be doing long-term projections anymore. Isn't it more like that the near-term projections are done in addition?

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7) Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...

So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP.

The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring - Nature Communications The authors use a physiological approach, finding recent extreme heat events had deadly heat stress conditions, particularly for fully exposed older people. Conditions were well below wet-bulb tempera...

How hot is too hot for humans?

Not 35C wet-bulb, as long assumed

A new study finds:
Survival limits vary with age & exposure
Sun + dry heat can be just as dangerous as humidity
Heatwaves already crossing critical thresholds

We’re closer to the edge than we thought

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

1/ New research @lut.fi doi.org/10.1016/j.eg... analyses the role of renewable energy and electrification in climate change mitigation pathways from the IPCC AR6 scenario database. Special focus is placed on those scenarios aiming for 1.5 °C or lower targets.

Miltä hiilineutraaliustavoite näyttää tietämyksen lisääntyessä ja toteutuneen päästökehityksen valossa? Suomen hiilineutraaliuden tavoitevuoden määrittely perustuu Suomen ilmastopaneelin vuonna 2021 tekemään arvioon. Suomen ympäristökeskuksen helmikuussa päättyneessä Ilmatar-hankkeessa arvioitiin samall...

Tietämyksen lisääntyminen ja päästöjen kehitys muuttavat hiilineutraaliustavoitteen määrittelyn perustaa. Asiaa selventävät Ilmastopaneelin blogissa @aipartanen.bsky.social ja @jyriseppala.bsky.social. Lue kirjoitus 👇
ilmastopaneeli.fi/milta-hiilin...

Suomen päästövähennyspolun tarkastelu huomioiden muiden kuin CO2-kasvihuonekaasujen ja epäsuorien nieluvaikutusten rooli Raportissa tarkastellaan Suomen reilua osuutta ilmastotoimista ja siitä seuraavaa päästövähennyspolkua. Ilmastopaneelin aiemmissa arvioissa käyttämää inventaariolaskentaan perustuvaa lähestymistapaa v...

Blogikirjoituksen taustalla on Ilmastopaneelin vuoden 2024 raportti, jossa tarkasteltiin tarkempien menetelmien avulla Suomen maksukykyyn perustuvaa päästöbudjettia, joka huomioisi aiempia arvioita paremmin Suomen nettopäästöjen ilmastovaikutuksen. (ilmastopaneeli.fi/hae-julkaisu...)

Miltä hiilineutraaliustavoite näyttää tietämyksen lisääntyessä ja toteutuneen päästökehityksen valossa? Suomen hiilineutraaliuden tavoitevuoden määrittely perustuu Suomen ilmastopaneelin vuonna 2021 tekemään arvioon. Suomen ympäristökeskuksen helmikuussa päättyneessä Ilmatar-hankkeessa arvioitiin samall...

Kirjoitin @ilmastopaneeli.fi:n puheenjohtajan Jyri Seppälän kanssa kansallisen maksukykyyn perustuvan päästöbudjetin määrittelystä ja maankäyttösektorin roolista ilmastotavoitteiden saavuttamisessa: ilmastopaneeli.fi/milta-hiilin...

I'm excited to announce this new paper we have in Nature Climate Change, establishing the core principles of a post-growth climate mitigation scenario that can achieve rapid decarbonization and high well-being. nature.com/articles/s41...

We’re Training Scientists for a World That No Longer Exists - Science Politics Science can help address pressing challenges, but only if we train scientists to communicate in the places people actually form beliefs.

Excellent piece on why Science communication matters, and why in many cases we are training the students for a world that has passed. We need to renew how we teach Science and communications about it.

sciencepolitics.org/2026/03/18/w...

Are you a young academic working on climate and feel ready for a move? We are recruiting two Assistant/Associate Professors @granthamicl.bsky.social at Imperial College London @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social (1/6)

“Europe's landscapes over the past more than 20 million years have predominantly been a mosaic: a mixture of grasslands, scrub and woodlands of varying density. A light-filled, flower-rich open woodland shaped by grazing animals as a decisive ecological force—not a dark closed-canopy forest.”

The LULUCF Data Hub: translating global land use emissions estimates into the national GHG inventory framework Abstract. Global estimates of anthropogenic land use CO2 fluxes from bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models, as well as those derived from Earth observations (EO), can differ widely f...

🌳 Puzzled by land-use emissions data?

➡️ The LULUCF Data Hub description paper now in discussion:
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

🌍 The Hub is an open-access platform that compiles, harmonizes, and visualizes country-level CO₂ fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).

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Tuossa tekstissä myös implisiittisesti edetään argumentista, että fossiilisia päästöjä ei voi kompensoida maankäyttösektorin nieluilla, johtopäätökseen että maankäyttösektorin nettopäästöillä ei ole väliä. Maankäyttön päästöjen kompensoiminen pysyvillä nieluilla vasta kalliiksi tulisikin.

At risk of repeating myself: if you have a Twitter/X account then at least pause it. Tell organisations you work for/are involved in to stop posting there.

One week until Christmas Eve! 🎄

Here's how the frequency for white Christmases have changed over the last decades in Europe. 📉

Colors show how often there was snow on the ground at Christmas within each 30-year period, from 1951–1980 through 1995–2024.

Golf-virta romahtaa: Helsinkiin 40 asteen pakkaset? YouTube video by Asiastudiofi

Olin Asiastudio-podcastin vieraana juttelemassa mahdollisesta Atlantin kiertoliikkeen romahduksesta ja sen vaikutuksista. Paljon asiaa, eikä kaikkea tietenkään muistanut edes kertoa!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnRC...

It would be helpful to emphasise that the graph is showing time derivative of forcing, not the actual forcing itself. Could you perhaps show the annual forcing values side-by-side?

Great Oxidation Event - Wikipedia

Jos otetaan huomioon myös historia ennen ihmistä, niin hapen aiheuttama massasukupuutto yli 2 miljardia vuotta sitten nostaisi hapen varmaan aika korkealle. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_O...

The revised calculation regarding overestimated present-day forest-area for Sland makes sense. Could you just calculate Sland in a simpler way as a difference between
S3 and a simulation with historical changes in land cover and harvest rates but climate, N inputs and CO2 from preindustrial?

Announcement that the applications are open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change, with speakers including Clare Farrell, Ben Franta, Julia Steinberger, Vítor Vasconcelos, and Rachel Donald, with more to come!

I am beyond excited to announce that the applications are now open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change!

Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change.

More info: acscc.nl

Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems Humanity has pushed Earth’s life-supporting systems to the brink, accelerated by our failures over the past decade. Our only way to limit the duration and magnitude of temperature overshoot is rapid, ...

I will write more about this later, for now just to say our paper has been published today. 10 years after Paris Agreement we can conclusively say we have failed to limit warming to well below 2°C. What next?

www.cell.com/one-earth/ab...

a schematic diagram showing various processes and related indicators for monitoring carbon removal in ocean systems, based on analyzed literature. The diagram divides the processes into three categories represented by different colors: Blue Carbon (green): Focuses on processes related to carbon sequestration and the role of marine ecosystems in capturing and storing carbon. Artificial Upwelling (yellow): Depicts processes that involve artificial interventions in marine environments to increase carbon capture. Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (blue): Illustrates methods that increase ocean alkalinity, which can help enhance carbon removal. The processes depicted in the diagram include: Carbon Sequestration Potential: This refers to the ability of oceans to capture and store carbon, with an indicator for monitoring this potential. Mineral Dissolution and Seawater Alkalinity Change: These processes are associated with changes in seawater chemistry, enhancing carbon sequestration through increased alkalinity. GHG Emissions: This represents the release of greenhouse gases, which can be measured to monitor the net carbon dynamics in the system. Carbon Removal Rates and Respiration: Shows how carbon is removed from the atmosphere and the role of respiration in this process, measured through carbon flux indicators. Primary Production and Water Masses Detection: This includes the detection of primary production (e.g., photosynthesis) in marine systems that leads to organic carbon formation. Sinking, Remineralization, and Burial: These processes involve the movement of carbon from the surface to deeper ocean layers, with some carbon remineralized and some buried in sediments. 🧪🌊

Marine CO₂ removal lacks standardized indicators to quantify carbon removed and environmental impacts. This absence of reliable metrics prevents verification, inhibits investment, and blocks entry into carbon trading systems.

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

PhD opportunity in oceanography 🌊🌊🌊
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social

More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...

The new UNEP report is out with the latest estimates of 2100 warming outcomes under current policies, NDCs, and net-zero targets. Here is how it compares to both the IPCC scenarios and other estimates (CAT and IEA, who will release their own updates soon!).

Wow! For long I have been thinking that such a coupled model would be cool, but I haven't come up with good set of research questions for it to write a proposal. I also have had spatial model in mind, but it's probably wise to start with an aggregated model.

An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans Abstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...

The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.

The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet's vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer

academic.oup.com/bioscience/a...