SpaceX Says It Has Agreement to Acquire Cursor for $60 Billion | Thomas J Thompson SpaceX’s Cursor Deal Signals Shift in Control of AI Workflows Bloomberg News reports that SpaceX may acquire the AI coding platform Cursor for $60 billion or invest $10 billion to deepen the partners...

SpaceX may acquire Cursor for $60B. My take is this isn’t about better models, it’s about controlling the interface where work gets done and scaled. That’s where value may shift next. #econsky

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Retail Sales Surge as Consumer Strength Extends Beyond the Headline The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales rose 1.7 percent in March, above expectations of 1.4 percent… |... Retail Sales Surge as Consumer Strength Extends Beyond the Headline The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales rose 1.7 percent in March, above expectations of 1.4 percent an...

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March with the control group up 0.7% vs 0.2% expected. My take is this is real strength, not just gas prices, but it reflects a consumer that is still spending unevenly across segments. #econsky

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Why Gas Prices Go Up Fast and Take So Long to Fall | Thomas J Thompson Why Gas Prices Rise Fast but Fall Slowly I get asked this all the time, and I read a great piece in the The New York Times this weekend that explains it in a way that is worth translating into plain ...

Gas prices rise fast and fall slow. Saw a great NYT piece on this. My take is it’s not just costs, it’s behavior. Consumers react quickly to increases but accept decreases once they feel relief. In uncertain times, memory matters more than optimization. #econsky

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I usually write about economics, but every once in a while something reminds me why I got into all of this in the first place. I was in Vancouver this week for a business meeting and had a few hours…... I usually write about economics, but every once in a while something reminds me why I got into all of this in the first place. I was in Vancouver this week for a business meeting and had a few hours ...

Found a 1932 Teggart book on Veblen at MacLeod’s Books in Vancouver, buried in a 100k-book shop. My take is discovery still beats algorithms, and value isn’t always searched for, it’s stumbled into. #econsky

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Jobless Claims Fall as Labor Market Stability Masks Friction The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 207,000, down from a revised 218,000 the prior week and marking…... Jobless Claims Fall as Labor Market Stability Masks Friction The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 207,000, down from a revised 218,000 the prior week and marking ...

207K jobless claims, lowest since Feb decline. Continuing claims up but trend still improving. My take is the labor market isn’t weakening, but it is becoming less consistent, and that’s enough to keep the consumer cautious. #econsky

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Import Prices Rise Beneath the Surface as Energy Drives the Signal The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that import prices rose 0.8% month over month in March, below expectations of 2.3%… | ... Import Prices Rise Beneath the Surface as Energy Drives the Signal The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that import prices rose 0.8% month over month in March, below expectations of 2.3% and...

Import prices rose 0.8% in March, below expectations, while export prices climbed 1.6%. My take is the signal sits beneath the surface. Energy is doing most of the work, but global pricing power is still holding. #econsky

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Producer Prices Cool Beneath the Surface as Energy Drives the Headline The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month over month in March, in line with… | ... Producer Prices Cool Beneath the Surface as Energy Drives the Headline The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month over month in March, in line with Feb...

PPI came in cooler than expected. My take is pipeline inflation is not reaccelerating even as energy pushes the headline higher, which suggests pressure on consumers may not broaden from here. #econsky

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Small Business Optimism Falls as Uncertainty Rises and Earnings Break Lower The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8 in… | T... Small Business Optimism Falls as Uncertainty Rises and Earnings Break Lower The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8 in Marc...

NFIB small business optimism fell to 95.8 in March while uncertainty jumped to 92. My take is this is less about sentiment and more about margins. Earnings rolled over, sales weakened, and that’s usually where slowdowns start. #econsky

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Existing Home Sales Fall 3.6% as Housing Market Remains Constrained The National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing home sales fell 3.6% month over month in March to a seasonally… | Thom... Existing Home Sales Fall 3.6% as Housing Market Remains Constrained The National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing home sales fell 3.6% month over month in March to a seasonally adjuste...

Existing home sales fell 3.6% to 3.98M. My take is the housing market isn’t weakening, it’s constrained. Volume is falling while prices still rise, which tells you supply and locked-in homeowners matter more than demand right now. #econsky

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Consumer Sentiment Collapses as Inflation Expectations Surge The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April from 53.3 in March, a drop of more than 10% in a single…... Consumer Sentiment Collapses as Inflation Expectations Surge The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April from 53.3 in March, a drop of more than 10% in a single ...

Consumer sentiment fell sharply to 47.6 while inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% as the Iran-driven energy shock hits how consumers think and behave. My take is this is where a more selective consumer begins to show up in the data #econsky

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Inflation Reaccelerates as Energy Shock Hits The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI rose 0.9% month over month in March, up from 0.3% in February, with year over year inflation… | Tho... Inflation Reaccelerates as Energy Shock Hits The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI rose 0.9% month over month in March, up from 0.3% in February, with year over year inflation increa...

CPI came in hot at 0.9% m/m and 3.3% y/y, but core was softer at 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, suggesting energy is driving the move while underlying inflation is stabilizing; my take is Fed on hold as headline pressure rises but core does not reaccelerate #econsky

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Consumer spending rose 0.5% while income fell 0.1% and real spending barely increased; my take is the consumer is holding the line by adjusting behavior, not pulling back, which points to resilience but also a more fragile balance ahead #econsky

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Job Losses Rise as Reemployment Improves The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 219,000, above expectations and up from a revised 203,000 the prior week. The… | ... Job Losses Rise as Reemployment Improves The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 219,000, above expectations and up from a revised 203,000 the prior week. The fou...

Jobless claims rose to 219K while continuing claims fell to 1.794M, signaling more job losses but faster reemployment; my take is the labor market is still turning over, not breaking, which keeps the consumer in the game for now #econsky

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Hedge Funds Post Steepest Losses Since Pandemic as Correlations Rise Hedge funds, which manage capital across stocks, bonds, and derivatives, recorded their weakest monthly performance since the… | T... Hedge Funds Post Steepest Losses Since Pandemic as Correlations Rise Hedge funds, which manage capital across stocks, bonds, and derivatives, recorded their weakest monthly performance since the earl...

Hedge funds saw their worst month since COVID as volatility spiked and correlations surged, meaning diversification broke down. My take is when markets lose differentiation, both investors and consumers become more cautious. #econsky

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Durable Goods Orders Fall But Business Investment Is Still Holding Up The U.S. Census Bureau reported that durable goods orders, which track new orders for long lasting manufactured items like… | Tho... Durable Goods Orders Fall But Business Investment Is Still Holding Up The U.S. Census Bureau reported that durable goods orders, which track new orders for long lasting manufactured items like machin...

Durable goods orders fell -1.4% vs -1.1% expected, but core rose 0.8% and core capex (ex-aircraft) increased 0.6% My take is businesses were still investing heading into uncertainty, not pulling back yet #econsky

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Service Prices Hit Highest Since 2022 as Growth Slows and Hiring Pulls Back The Institute for Supply Management reported that the Services PMI came in at 54.0 for March, below expectations of 54.9… |... Service Prices Hit Highest Since 2022 as Growth Slows and Hiring Pulls Back The Institute for Supply Management reported that the Services PMI came in at 54.0 for March, below expectations of 54.9 an...

ISM Services PMI 54.0 vs 54.9 est and 56.1 prior, prices jumped to 70.7 highest since Oct 2022, employment fell to 45.2. My take is growth is still there but the mix is shifting as costs rise and hiring pulls back. #econsky

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Payrolls Blow Past Expectations as Labor Force Contracts The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations of 65,000. January and February were revised down by a combined… | Th... Payrolls Blow Past Expectations as Labor Force Contracts The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations of 65,000. January and February were revised down by a combined 22,00...

Payrolls +178K vs 65K expected while unemployment fell to 4.3%, but the labor force shrank by ~400K. My take is hiring is holding up, as claims suggested, but a smaller labor pool is driving the headline and masking a more constrained market. #econsky

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Jobless Claims Fall as Reemployment Slows and Hiring Demand Softens The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 202,000, below expectations of 212K and down from a… |... Jobless Claims Fall as Reemployment Slows and Hiring Demand Softens The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 202,000, below expectations of 212K and down from a re...

Initial claims fell to 202K while continuing claims rose to 1.841M. My take is layoffs remain low but reemployment is slowing as hiring demand cools, pointing to a labor market that is stable but becoming less fluid. #econsky

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Retail Sales Beat Expectations in Broad February Gain The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales rose 0.6% in February, above expectations and a reversal from the prior… | Th... Retail Sales Beat Expectations in Broad February Gain The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales rose 0.6% in February, above expectations and a reversal from the prior month...

Retail sales rose 0.6% in Feb, with core and control both at 0.5%, all beating expectations. January revised to -0.1% suggests spending never really pulled back. My take is the consumer is holding, but unevenly, consistent with an E-shaped dynamic. #econsky

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US Consumer Confidence Surges in Unexpected Gain Not going to lie, but I did not see this coming. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose to 91.8 in March, well above… | Thomas ... US Consumer Confidence Surges in Unexpected Gain Not going to lie, but I did not see this coming. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose to 91.8 in March, well above expectatio...

Consumer confidence rose to 91.8, well above expectations, but expectations fell and labor perceptions were mixed. My take is sentiment looks strong, but slower hiring and mobility point to a more cautious consumer. #econsky

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US Job Openings Fall as Hiring Slows The most important labor market signal right now is not the level of demand but how quickly that demand is translating into hiring. The Bureau of Labor… | Thomas... US Job Openings Fall as Hiring Slows The most important labor market signal right now is not the level of demand but how quickly that demand is translating into hiring. The Bureau of Labor Statistic...

Job openings fell to 6.9M from 7.2M while hires dropped sharply to 4.8M. My take is demand is easing but hiring is slowing faster, making it harder for workers to move back into comparable roles. #econsky

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Uber Acquires Blacklane as Premium Travel Demand Accelerates Uber announced it is acquiring Blacklane, a global chauffeur platform operating in more than 500 cities, as it expands further into… | Tho... Uber Acquires Blacklane as Premium Travel Demand Accelerates Uber announced it is acquiring Blacklane, a global chauffeur platform operating in more than 500 cities, as it expands further into premiu...

Uber acquiring Blacklane to expand premium travel. My take is this reflects an E economy where high end spending is strong, lower income participation is rising, and the middle is becoming more selective. #econsky

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Consumers Feel Worse and Expect Higher Prices Sometimes the most important signal is when a shock begins to move through both perception and expectation at the same time. The University of Michigan…... Consumers Feel Worse and Expect Higher Prices Sometimes the most important signal is when a shock begins to move through both perception and expectation at the same time. The University of Michigan ...

Consumer sentiment fell to 53.3 in March while 1Y inflation expectations jumped to 3.8 percent. My take is consumers feel worse while expecting higher prices, which leads to more selective spending rather than a collapse in demand. #econsky

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Jobless Claims Send Mixed Signals on Labor Market Strength The labor market is not flashing stress in layoffs. The more important question is what happens after someone loses a job, and this week’s… ... Jobless Claims Send Mixed Signals on Labor Market Strength The labor market is not flashing stress in layoffs. The more important question is what happens after someone loses a job, and this week’s d...

Initial claims rose to 210K while continuing claims fell to 1.819M. My take is layoffs remain low but the drop in continuing claims is not a clean signal as it may reflect reemployment or workers exiting or taking lower quality jobs. #econsky

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Mortgage Rates Hit Five Month High As Demand Pulls Back Housing activity is slowing again, and the reason is not just where mortgage rates are, but how consumers are reacting to them. The Mortgage… ... Mortgage Rates Hit Five Month High As Demand Pulls Back Housing activity is slowing again, and the reason is not just where mortgage rates are, but how consumers are reacting to them. The Mortgage B...

Mortgage rates hit 6.43% a five month high and applications fell sharply. My take is demand is shifting from disappearing to delayed as loss aversion and rate uncertainty slow decisions. #econsky

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US Business Activity Cools as Prices Rise Amid Iran Conflict Growth is slowing just as costs begin to move higher again, a combination that tends to matter more than either on its own. S&P Globa... US Business Activity Cools as Prices Rise Amid Iran Conflict Growth is slowing just as costs begin to move higher again, a combination that tends to matter more than either on its own. S&P Global re...

Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, beating expectations, while Services PMI fell to 51.1 and the composite dropped to 51.4, a near one year low. My take is growth is slowing as cost pressures build, creating a more constrained environment beneath the surface. #econsky

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Private Construction Pulls Back as Public Spending Holds Steady Sometimes the most important signal in investment data is not the headline number, but where long-term commitments are starting to… | T... Private Construction Pulls Back as Public Spending Holds Steady Sometimes the most important signal in investment data is not the headline number, but where long-term commitments are starting to shif...

Construction spending fell 0.3% in January, missing expectations, with private activity down and public spending rising. My take is investment is becoming more selective, with government offsetting softer private sector commitment. #econsky

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Household Wealth Hits a Record but Feels Increasingly Uneven Sometimes the most important economic signal is not the level of wealth, but how that wealth is created and who actually experiences it.… ... Household Wealth Hits a Record but Feels Increasingly Uneven Sometimes the most important economic signal is not the level of wealth, but how that wealth is created and who actually experiences it. ...

Household net worth rose $2.2T to a record, driven by equities while housing declined. My take is this is starting to look more E-shaped, with gains at the top, a flattening middle, and increasing pressure on lower-income households. #econsky

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US New Home Sales Fall as Demand Pulls Back Faster Than Supply Adjusts Sometimes the most important signal in housing is not whether demand exists but how quickly it retreats relative to… | Thomas J ... US New Home Sales Fall as Demand Pulls Back Faster Than Supply Adjusts Sometimes the most important signal in housing is not whether demand exists but how quickly it retreats relative to supply. The...

New home sales fell to 587K in January, well below expectations, dropping 17.6% from the prior month as inventory rose. My take is demand remains intact but highly conditional, with activity slowing quickly when affordability tightens. #econsky

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US Jobless Claims Fall While Reemployment Slows Sometimes the most important labor market signal is not what is rising but what is diverging. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial… | Th... US Jobless Claims Fall While Reemployment Slows Sometimes the most important labor market signal is not what is rising but what is diverging. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial joble...

Initial claims fell to 205K, below expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.857M. My take is layoffs remain low but reemployment is slowing, making it harder for displaced workers to find comparable roles. #econsky

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