Just finished the Malcolm in the Middle revival series, a lovely tonic on what feels like the eve of martial law being declared

Avoid a basic election analysis error with this one neat trick… Don't build conclusions on voter movements from change in aggregate vote share

Written a short explainer on one of the most common and avoidable errors in election analysis at the moment: building conclusions on how voters are moving from vote change.

Share it with anyone who needs to see it, which includes an alarming number of people in Westminster.

My wish for 2026 is that politicians and political analysts realize that public opinion is endogenous to elite behavior, that polling single issues tells us nothing about electorally successful strategies, that politics means shaping public opinion and that popularism is the death of progressivism.

How Ireland Voted 2024 This book is the 10th volume in the established How Ireland Voted series and provides the definitive story of Ireland’s 2024 election.

🚨How Ireland Voted 2024 is out!🇮🇪🗳️

Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.

A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8

Fascinating how often political commentary in the UK still refers to the median voter. In a multi-dimensional space with salience endogenous to positions, it‘s unclear to me who that should be. In a multi-party system, winning the median voter is of course not necessarily a vote-maximizing strategy.

Applications for the PhD Political Science now open!📣

The Department of Political Science invites applications for four-year fully funded PhD studentships at Trinity College Dublin. The deadline to apply is 1st April 2026.

Learn more & apply here: tinyurl.com/2rv4p89d

recently i have been doing some research for a company on using LLMs to replace humans in survey interviews (the results are not good, and it's generally a betrayal of many principles of public opinion polling, so i do not advise this).

but today OpenAI released a new model (GPT-5). i tested it..

People use beamer, in part, because they assume that it serves as a competence signal, but then use horrible looking defaults that signal only that they don't know how to use it competently. Use powerpoint or, if you want to integrate code or do something else fancy, Quarto. Beamer's dead tech.

📄 @fgilardi.bsky.social created this template for writing abstracts several years ago, and I’ve tried to follow Fabrizio‘s suggestions ever since.

PDF: fabriziogilardi.org/resources/pa...

(since i'm among friends on this platform, I'll be more explicit: if you say you understand politics - or if you are paid to - the least you can do is open a poll and **look at the fucking crosstabs** there is quite a lot going on in there beyond the surface level of 'one party up, one party down')