Repeat after Ryan: "More drilling in California would not insulate the state from price spikes, because the price of oil is determined on the global market." Louder in the back, now!

Contributor: Oil industry's wish list is not the way to help Californians The state should expand import infrastructure to protect against the refinery outages that disrupt our fuel supply.

Me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social are in the LAT today arguing that CA oil industry is trying to use the current crisis to jam through its deregulatory wishlist. Instead of caving, the state should use this moment to be a leader in the "mid-transition."

www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...

Great example of this is monetary policy. Nearly 2/3rds of CEOs in a survey wouldn't even venture a guess as to what the Fed's inflation target was (something that directly impacts their business, btw!) and of those who guessed, only 20% could correctly identify it.

www.nber.org/papers/w28836

The labor economics of 'Alien' — and its lessons for inequality on Earth Behind the acid blood and jump scares of the Alien franchise is an even more insidious horror: a single employer with unchecked power. How Weyland-Yutani helps explain monopsony — and the rise of inequality on Earth.

Behind the acid blood and jump scares of the Alien franchise is an even more insidious horror: a single employer with unchecked power. How Weyland-Yutani helps explain monopsony — and the rise of inequality on Earth. n.pr/4dGFaCl

However much you think we should be funding cancer research, I can guarantee you it's not enough. The economic benefit of getting rid of it would be $197 ***TRILLION*** over 35 years.

We should easily be 100Xing federal funding of this research, and instead we're cutting it.

What should be particularly worrisome for Trump: sentiment declined this month the most for *Republicans.* Even more so over a 6-month window.

He's also completely wiped out the post-election enthusiasm among Rs; sentiment for Ds and Is is down sharply.

(w/ @nealemahoney.bsky.social)

Updating this chart from me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social
and adding a new one. Increases in the gas prices since Iran conflict have been unrelenting (+$1.14/gal since Feb 28), and we have now witnessed the biggest 30 day increase in gasoline prices on record (data going back to 1993).

every time i write about wage theft i do a double take because it's so crazy

corporations steal more than $50 bn from workers' paychecks each year, illegally paying workers less than they earned for their labor

that significantly exceeds the combined losses from larceny, burglary, & vehicle theft

“We’re going to cut your healthcare to pay for more wars“ is certainly a message one can choose to run on, I suppose.

Gas prices and tax refunds go hand in hand. When the cost of the first goes up, the payoff from the other goes down. A new analysis by SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, Caleb Brobst and @weakinstrument.bsky.social explaining this effect is causing quite a stir. Read on👇

Never underestimate the abilities of a great survey field professional

The longer the conflict goes on, the higher likelihood that Iran collecting a (relatively) small toll for SoH traffic becomes the norm.

It’s possible that one of the more enduring legacies of this will be that the U.S. effectively helped Iran build, own, and operate their own Panama Canal

FT reporting $2m was paid to Iran for passage through SoH. If you have a VLCC then at $100/bbl, that’s just 1% of the total cost of the cargo/it only increases cost by (a maximum of) $1/bbl.

I would have to imagine for that price, the demand for these sorts of waivers is going to be EXTREMELY high.

Updated from me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social.

After slowing down last week, the surge in gasoline prices is starting to run away from the spike observed after Russia/Ukraine.

90 cents/gallon increase in just 19 days, or ~5c/day. >$375M extra consumers are paying every day than before the war.

You know those "dubai physical barrels" you hear so much about? Well, in California, they're exposed to that price because the asian refiners that the state imports gasoline and components from are buying Gulf oil @weakinstrument.bsky.social

heatmap.news/energy/calif...

Why Gas in California Is Almost $6 a Gallon — and Could Go Higher War with Iran adds to a long list of factors making California gas hella expensive.

"6, 7" are the numbers you're likely going to be seeing on gas station signs throughout California. How did we get here? ft @weakinstrument.bsky.social and @severinborenstein.bsky.social

heatmap.news/energy/calif...

According to live GasBuddy gas price data, Americans today will spend ~$350 million more on gasoline than they did Feb. 28. So far since Feb. 28, Americans have spent $3.7 billion more on gasoline.

⛽️Surging gas prices are taking a bite out of President Trump's promised tax refunds promised, and could devour the largest checks. The math in link 👇, courtesy of SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, Caleb Brobst and @weakinstrument.bsky.social.

#GasPrices #Affordability

End/ Of course, these are estimates. If the Strait of Hormuz opens back up quickly, then this will likely lower crude prices. But the longer the Strait remains closed, the more consumers pay, and the higher these numbers get.

4/ We then estimate the total extra amount consumers will pay because of the conflict. For the average HH, that’s $740 over the course of the year, which is roughly equal to the most aggressive estimate of larger refunds resulting from Trump's tax cut law (OBBA).

3/ But that’s changed dramatically; even if crude oil falls into the 70s in the later part of the year, we estimate that gas prices will peak around $4.40/gallon by May.

2/ We build a statistical model to estimate the relationship between crude oil and gasoline, and then use Goldman Sach’s crude oil forecast to construct a gas price forecast. Before the conflict, we were on track to have low gas prices (~$3/gal) over the summer.

Spiking Gasoline Prices May Wipe Out Larger Tax Refunds Touted by Trump Since the U.S.

1/ Me, @nealemahoney.bsky.social, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, and Caleb Brobst have a new analysis out, estimating that higher oil prices resulting from Iran bombing will largely wipe out increased tax refunds for the average family.
nealemahoney.substack.com/p/spiking-ga...

Responding to high oil prices by shorting futures instead of opening the SPR is exactly the sort of galaxy brain macro dipshittery only Scott Bessent would think of, I’m looking forward to them getting a hundred billion dollar margin call and sending crude to $500

I just overheard a couple liberals at a coffee shop say that when you combine what Costa said below with the nearly unprecedented decline in emissions in Trump’s last year in office in his first term, it’s starting to look like Trump might be the most pro-climate President ever.

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policy shields consumers from Iran-driven oil shocks, economist says | Fox News Video Unleash Prosperity co-founder Stephen Moore says record U.S. oil and gas production will help counter Middle East turmoil and prevent a spike in gas prices in the wake of recent Iran strikes.

Disheartening to see anyone taken seriously who says US (or California) oil production protects consumers from Iran war impact. Producers argue world market sets the price. Correct! Oil price reflects value, not proximity, as recent gasoline price jumps show.
www.foxnews.com/video/639043...

If this scenario happens, this would drive national average gas prices well above $5.00/gallon—likely close to $5.25-$5.50. It would shatter the record set in the summer of 2022. What’s extraordinary is unlike then, this would be entirely out of the President’s own choosing.

Interesting observation , Matt.

Thank you for such a kind note, Sed! And very much agree with you On the benefits of EVs—the more we can get folks to adopt, the less salient the issue becomes!