• Jalen Williams (22 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists (1 TO) on 9/15 FG) & Chet Holmgren (16 points & 7 rebounds on 5/10 FG) took full advantage and were in complete control from the jump
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• Overall SGA had a really good game generating rim pressure & building off of his improved playmaking (7 assists & 0 TOs). Lack of rhythm on jumper (0-7 in the midrange & 0-4 from deep)
• Phoenix threw 2 bodies + help against Shai. Non-SGA Thunder players capitalize, shot 23/33 (69.6%) from two
Film Study Takeaways:
Keys to the Thunder’s Game 1 win over the Suns yesterday:
• The playoffs always expose why not having a “traditional PG” on the floor hurts in the playoffs. Lack of flow for Phoenix getting into its offensive sets. The Suns had *16 assists to 17 turnovers*
OKC also generated 13 steals(!) and had 7 blocks — leading a (34-2) advantage in points off turnovers & outscoring PHX (52-24) in the paint
Shai, J-Dub, and Chet were the three Thunder players in double figures —combining for *63 points*
OKC dominates the possession game to a 1-0 series lead
+11 in TOs (outscored PHX 34-2 in points off turnovers), +13 in FGM & +10 in FGA, +5 in OREB
Held PHX to 16-for-44 (36%) from two & 13-for-39 (33%) from three, and 12-for-30 (40%) in the paint
OKC finished with a 130.8 ORTG & 91.3 DRTG
In a game where SGA is struggling shooting from the floor (5/18 FG & 0/4 3P), despite the process of the shots being good
SGA has 7 assists to zero turnovers
The value of protecting the ball & not giving away possessions is heightened in the playoffs
This!! It also shows a level of discipline, attention to detail, and synergy in one another
The plays that don't show up in the stat sheet
Look at how much ground Alex Caruso covers on this defensive possession — leading to turnovers — converting into easy transition offense
Invaluable impact
One area to nitpick in the first half is Oso Ighodaro with 7 (!! offensive rebounds in the first half, 1 less than OKC as a team — leading to Phoenix being +4 in 2nd chance points
OKC are +20 in the paint, +19 in points off TOs, and +11 in fast break points
Phoenix is 7-for-22 (32%) from two, 7-for-24 (29%) from three
Shai, Chet, and J-Dub combined for 42 points on 13 FGM. Phoenix has 44 points on 14 FGM
No rust for OKC in the first half: 135.4 ORTG & 91.7 DRTG
Lack of size — affecting Phoenix in the 1Q
OKC are +8 on the glass (has 7 offensive rebs), +12 in the paint, and +5 in 2nd chance pts
Chet Holmgren taking full advantage with 13 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and a block
OKC with an 145.8 ORTG & 83.3 DRTG in the 1Q
Despite this play ending in free throws. It exemplifies how hard OKC makes you work
Phoenix sets Booker off a stagger screen
Hartenstein is in the help to close the gap, allowing Dort to recover + crowds Booker’s space. The connectivity of the OKC’s defense could potentially make life difficult
Phoenix closing the gaps on Shai
Jalen Williams providing the proper spacing. Then the active & quick hands-on full-display
Converting open looks to alleviate pressure off of SGA will be crucial
5 quick points + already showing his two-way versatility
Here are a few key role players who have found their rhythm, have momentum, and can help the Thunder’s main creators have more room to operate
Isaiah Joe: 43.8% from 3 since the ASB
Dort: 46.7% from 3 in last 10 games
Cason Wallace: 44.1% from 3 in last 8 games
J-Will: 40.9% from 3 since the ASB
Continued ⬇️
The Thunder’s perimeter shooting has been a talking point since the Dallas series during the 2024 playoff matchup
OKC generates its 3s from the drive-and-kick, and is 9th in 3P% (36.5%)
Phoenix has multiple good POA defenders to make things difficult for SGA & will try to funnel POSS
Shooting Variance ⬇️
Phoenix relies heavily on the three, 11th in 3P% (36.1%) & 5th in volume (40.8)
Defending the three has been an issue for OKC at times, 25th in OPP 3P% (36.9%)
OKC has multiple All-Defensive level perimeter defenders to handle both of their primary creators (Booke/Green)
Two areas to watch for in the OKC-Phoenix series are:
Possession Battle ⬇️
Phoenix: 112.9 DRTG (9th), 33.1 OREB% (6th), 14.5 TOV (15th), 16.3 OPP TOV (3rd), 19.9 PTS OFF TOs (5th)
OKC: 106.5 DRTG (1st), 69.7 DREB% (13th), 12.6 TOV (2nd), 16.7 OPP TOV (2nd), 22.0 PTS OFF TOs (1st)
Oklahoma City Thunder-Phoenix First Round Schedule ⬇️
An area to monitor is OKC's performance on the road
Home/Road Splits during 2025 Playoffs
Home: 11-2 Record. 120.2 ORTG, 100.2 DRTG, 120.5 PPG, 47.1% FG%, 36.6% 3P%, 11.1 TOV, +19.9 plus-minus
Road: 5-5 Record. 106.7 ORTG, 112.9 DRTG, 107.2 PPG, 43.7% FG%, 29.9% 3P%, 14 TOV, -6.7 plus-minus
The aftermath of the Play-in: OKC’s 2026 First Round Pick from the Clippers is officially slotted in the #12 spot
• 7.1% odds to jump into the Top 4
• 86.1% odds to stay at #12
• 6.7% odds to move down to #13
• .1% odds to fall to #14
My first-round picks:
Eastern Conference
Detroit>Orlando in 7:
Cleveland>Toronto in 6:
New York>Atlanta in 6:
Boston>Philly in 5:
Western Conference
OKC>Phoenix in 5:
Houston>LA in 5:
Denver>Minnesota in 6:
San Antonio>Portland in 4:
Nikola Topic was supposed to be slotted in as their 2024 FRP. Thought I corrected it. Nevertheless, what an outcome from this deal
Had Topic in the slot. Thought I corrected it — my error. Good catch!
Their 2024 Clippers pick (which was a part of the Paul George trade) was traded to Dallas for a 28 FRP swap + the Thunder have an unprotected pick swap in next year's draft for being a facilitator in the Harden trade to the Clippers
So 2 more pick swap rights with the Clippers remain
The full Paul George trade:
Clippers received:
Paul George
Thunder received:
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander
Danilo Gallinari
2021 FRP (Tre Mann)
2022 FRP (Jalen Williams)
2024 FRP (Dillion Jones)
2025 FRP (Thomas Sorber)
2026 FRP (Will select in the lottery again)
2 pick swaps
Here’s a Basketball starter pack full of hidden gems for the start of postseason play.
All great follows with less than 5k followers currently. Some with less than 100 followers all posting good basketball content on the number one app for sports. @bsky.app
Check out the pay increases for WNBA rookies versus last year 👀
No. 1 pick salary up from $78K to $500K