Dahiyeh today #lebanon

WEBINAR: Ending the US-Israeli War on Iran and Lebanon 🌐

With the US-Iran ceasefire expiring Wednesday and negotiations at a critical juncture, join Andrew Miller, CIP Fellow Negar Mortazavi, and @abujamajem.com this Thursday for an expert discussion moderated by CIP's @nancyokail.bsky.social.

الرئيس الشرع يصدر مرسوماً بإحداث الشركة السورية للتعدين أصدر الرئيس أحمد الشرع المرسوم رقم /44/ لعام 2026، القاضي بإحداث الشركة السورية للتعدين (SMC)، تتمتع بالشخصية الاعتبارية والاستقلال المالي والإداري، وترتبط بوزير الطاقة، ويكون مقرها في دمشق.

April 6 Syrian presidential decree transforming General Company for Phosphates and Mines into "Syrian Mining Company," with some responsibilities previously belonging to General Establishment of Geology and Mineral Resources: sana.sy/presidency/2...

بدء عملية تحميل مادة الفيول القادم من العراق على ناقلة النفط ASAHI PRINCESS بدأت اليوم الأربعاء، عملية تحميل مادة الفيول القادم من العراق على ناقلة النفط ASAHI PRINCESS البالغة حمولتها 85 ألف طن، وذلك من مصفاة بانياس باتجاه الخط الممتد إلى المصب النفطي ثم

SANA report on start to loading Iraqi fuel to waiting vessel at Baniyas terminal includes additional detail on Iraq deal, including portion of fuel oil for Syrian power generation and involvement of Khayyats' UCC: sana.sy/economy/2450...

Self-serving Vance account of his skepticism doesn't even make sense:

How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran

Belatedly got to this: New York Times account of how Israel Curveballed the United States into attacking Iran, and how Trump proved to be an enthusiastic mark: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...

26 years later, IDF restores its south Lebanon security zone — with key changes While the military avoids calling it a 'security zone,' the boundaries are nearly the same; commanders say this time troops won't face same threats

Times of Israel report from south Lebanon, where Israeli military attempting to reproduce pre-2000 "security zone" with a few distinctions – namely, almost no Lebanese civilians, and fewer fixed positions: www.timesofisrael.com/26-years-lat...

Hizbullah says that as Israeli forces “were committing a new violation” of ceasefire, Israeli military convoy in south Lebanon hit yesterday afternoon by “explosive charges planted previously by the mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance.”

A counterfactual Harris administration may have been different – I think so, probably – but continuities between Trump and Biden administrations on Middle East policy were real and substantial. x.com/facethenatio...

‘It was a lovely place’: Life in southern Lebanon under Israel’s ‘remote occupation’ One year after a ceasefire with Israel, some residents are returning to live under the hum of surveillance drones

Read my report from last November to learn about some of the areas of Lebanon that the Israeli military is now occupying. These villages are totally inaccessible now. www.irishtimes.com/world/middle...

Similar energy x.com/ytirawi/stat...

Travelled with displaced Lebanese families heading back south after the ceasefire came into force on Friday (& ended up going pea harvesting). #lebanon www.thetimes.com/world/middle...

For more on reconstruction like this in Syria ushering in a new era of clientelism and corruption after Assad, see my piece for @centuryintl.bsky.social @tcfdotorg.bsky.social

tcf.org/content/comm...

Israeli military spokesman maps "forward defense line"/"Yellow Line" demarcating zone Israel now trying to arrogate to itself in south Lebanon:

Syrian Billionaires Needed a Favor in Washington. They Invoked the Trump Name.

@nytimes.com's @ericlipton.nytimes.com on the Khayyat brothers' Trump family business connections, and how the Khayyats and Tarek Naemo lobbied Congress for Syria sanctions repeal: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/19/u...

''لن يمر 17 أيار ولو بقينا وحدنا''... فضل الله: لا مساومة ولا عودة إلى الوراء أكد عضو كتلة "الوفاء للمقاومة" النائب حسن فضل الله، خلال مؤتمر صحافي من بلدة تبنين في جنوب لبنان، أنّ الخيارات المطروحة أمام لبنان يجب أن تنطلق من الاستفادة من المناخ الإقليمي،...

Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadlallah yesterday: "A 17 May agreement will not pass in Lebanon, even if we're left alone" in opposing it. www.lebanondebate.com/article/8253...

Israeli military tells press it intends to reproduce Gaza "yellow line" in south Lebanon, maintain indefinitely depopulated, destroyed area: www.cnn.com/2026/04/18/w...

Hizbullah politburo member Mahmoud Qmati this afternoon emphatic no going back to before March 2, previous phase of “strategic patience” over.

2. Potential Hizbullah retaliation to Israeli actions:

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That's if Hizbullah is now ready to respond, and no longer in the sort of preparatory-rebuilding phase it was in for the 15 months preceding this latest war.

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1: Continued Iranian pressure: x.com/araghchi/sta...

Which could induce Trump – who likely just wants an Iran deal, and doesn't care about turning Lebanon inside out like some people in his administration – to constrain Israel in Lebanon: www.axios.com/2026/04/17/l...

2/3

Think the ceasefire agreement published by the State Department on Thursday points to U.S. intentions in Lebanon.

That said, a couple factors that seem like they could influence the trajectory of this ceasefire, whatever the text says:

1/3

As long as the #Lebanon ceasefire lasts the Strait of Hormuz will be open, #Iran's Foreign Minister announces.

In Gaza, the IDF has spent the months since the ceasefire completing the demolition of all urban areas behind the Yellow Line (and some a little beyond it)

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Not sure; trying to keep up myself!

But because Lebanon has bought into this U.S.-led track, the U.S. gets to dictate its terms; I think there's limits to what Iran can insist on, if this Lebanese government is prepared to sign.

And these terms seem dangerous for Lebanon:

3/3

That said: there is some question about whether Trump would have been willing to announce this ceasefire – pre-empting the Israeli security cabinet, reportedly – if the Lebanese had not engaged positively with U.S.-led talks and cultivated goodwill in Washington.

2/3

Debate ongoing in Lebanon over how to attribute ceasefire, and which local/int'l party to credit.

I think I buy that U.S. mainly wanted a ceasefire because of Iran's insistence, to allow new round of Islamabad talks (e.g., www.axios.com/2026/04/16/lebanon-ceasefire-trump-aoun-israel-netanyahu)

1/3

All this is premised on Lebanese-Israeli alignment against non-state armed groups that "undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty and threaten regional stability"; now the Lebanese government has committed to "meaningful steps" to constrain Hizbullah.

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4/4

The text allows Israel basically unlimited scope for "defensive" action, along the lines of Israel's daily attacks on Lebanon following the November 2024 ceasefire.

There is no reference to Israeli withdrawal from occupied south Lebanon.

3/4

The agreed text published by the State Dept. is obviously, predictably, lopsided: the initial ten-day ceasefire is a "gesture of goodwill" from Israel; to extend it, the onus is on Lebanon to satisfactorily prove to the U.S. and Israel that it can exercise its sovereignty.

2/4