How DfE can meet 6,500 teacher target without ‘missing the point’ Hitting the target is one thing, but the government must also ensure that the right teachers are brought into the system, says the NFER’s Jack Worth

The DfE hitting its 6,500 new teacher target is one thing, but it must also ensure to attract teachers in the areas they are most needed, explains @thenfer.bsky.social’s @jackworth.bsky.social

Thread summarising today's NFER webinar on the education workforce. Thanks to the panel and attendees for joining us!

We're hosting a free webinar which will discuss some of the key findings from five reports that focus on the full scope of the education workforce in England, from early years through to further education & incorporating school support staff & the school teacher workforces.

👉 bit.ly/4r2OCmG [1/2]

We’re hosting a webinar on all our new Education Workforce findings, featuring a key insights presentation from @jackworth.bsky.social, plus reactions from panellists @leoracruddas.bsky.social, @sarahronan.bsky.social & @hughesdavid.bsky.social.

📅 19 March
⏰ 14:00 - 15:15

Register 👉 bit.ly/4r2OCmG

What helps to improve teacher retention? This new research explores the factors associated with the leaving decisions of teachers, to understand in greater detail what actions policymakers might take to further improve teacher retention rate...

NEW: What helps to improve teacher retention?

Today we have published a new study on teacher retention, looking at the association between a wide range of factors relating to teacher's' working lives and their retention decisions

www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...

✍️ | In a new blog, @jackworth.bsky.social uses insights from our redeveloped teacher supply forecast and simulation model to look at what the implications of different STRB recommendations might be for teacher recruitment and retention trends.

Read more 👉 www.nfer.ac.uk/blogs/what-s...

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statist...

New blog post - What should happen to teachers’ pay from 2026?

With the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB) currently developing its recommendations for teachers’ pay for the next two years, our Education Workforce Lead, @jackworth.bsky.social, has written a new blog post looking at what he thinks should happen from 2026.

Read the post 👉 bit.ly/3KMbSWU

Interesting stat from today's release: more than half of physics trainees are now non-UK and non-EEA nationals. A remarkable shift from 6% of trainees in 2021 to 59% in 2025. Encouraged by the bursary eligibility change in 2022/23, but how many have gone on to state-sector employment?

Today's ITT Census data is positive, showing a sizeable increase in trainee numbers vs last year, alongside lower targets due to other supply improvements like retention. But there's still more to do as secondary recruitment is still below target at 88 per cent

"Improved recruitment to postgraduate teacher training in England is welcome after years of severe under-recruitment. While targets for core secondary subjects including English, maths and the sciences have been met, overall secondary recruitment still falls short of the numbers required. “Further policy efforts to improve teacher recruitment and retention will be needed to maintain the stronger recruitment, reverse the impacts of previous persistent under-recruitment and deliver on the Government's objective to recruit 6,500 new teachers." Jack Worth - Education Workforce Lead

🗣️ "Improved recruitment to postgraduate teacher training in England is welcome after years of severe under-recruitment."

Our Education Workforce Lead, @jackworth.bsky.social, has given his reaction to the latest DfE initial teacher training census data. 👇

First 2025/26 cycle ITT data out today. Too early to tell much and it's quite contradictory!

- Applications up, but offers and acceptances flat or down
- Acceptances especially down for secondary and in bursary-cut subjects

Will be interesting to see if extra apps translate into offers later on

What's going on with recruitment and retention? With Jack Worth

NEW EPISODE

This week, we're joined by @JackWorthNFER, an economist studying the teacher labour market, to explore the history and future or recruitment and retention. It's MEGA nerdy, and super fascinating.

Tune in and share here 👇👇

open.spotify.com/episode/20PH...

Disappointing and confusing to see DfE reducing ITT bursaries today for a range of subjects, including four subjects which we forecast to be below their respective targets this year. Our research… |... Disappointing and confusing to see DfE reducing ITT bursaries today for a range of subjects, including four subjects which we forecast to be below their respective targets this year. Our research sh...

👋

www.linkedin.com/posts/jack-w...

New blog post - A widespread lack of specialist physics teachers persists due to recruitment and retention challenges

In a brand new feature length blog post, our Education Workforce Lead, @jackworth.bsky.social, discusses new analysis, commissioned by the @instituteofphysics.bsky.social, highlighting how the under-supply of specialist teachers is affecting secondary schools.

Read the post 👉 bit.ly/4m8dSWt

“Addressing the teacher supply challenges in secondary and further education requires a strategic and targeted approach to improving the attractiveness of the teaching profession in key subjects and particularly in disadvantaged areas. NFER’s research echoes the importance of building a strategy around the key factors for recruitment and retention raised in this report, including teacher workload, pupil behaviour, a lack of access to flexible working arrangements and teacher pay and incentives.” Jack Worth, Education Workforce Lead

Our Education Workforce Lead, @jackworth.bsky.social, has has given his reaction to the House of Commons Public Committee report on teacher numbers in secondary and further education, published today.

Read the full quote 👉 bit.ly/3TuIHIB

Sat down with Tom and James earlier this week to discuss 6,500 teachers. Do have a listen! 👇

Do retention payments for early career teachers work? Jack Worth discusses new analysis of the impact early career retention payments (ECRPs) on teacher retention.

Retention payments for early career teachers may help, but the evidence is mixed.

This is the conclusion of our new analysis funded by
@nuffieldfoundation.org

Read @jackworth.bsky.social's blog on the new findings 👇

bit.ly/4liHKQ5

The impact of early career retention payments on teacher retention This evaluation, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, explores the impact of five early career retention payment schemes, piloted since 2018, on teacher retention in England.

Thanks to @nuffieldfoundation.org for funding this work and my colleague Dawson for doing so much of the data-wrangling and number-crunching

Full report: www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...

Our analysis implies retention payments have a high marginal cost compared to bursaries

This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...

In summary, the retention impacts were somewhat mixed and generally not statistically significant. Overall, it suggested an association with lower retention rates, but wasn't conclusive

Do retention payments for early career teachers work? Jack Worth discusses new analysis of the impact early career retention payments (ECRPs) on teacher retention.

Do extra payments to in-service teachers in shortage subjects improve retention?

We thought our analysis might back up the fairly strong 'yes' from UK literature so far, but our findings were not as conclusive. In this blog I assess the findings and what they might mean for policy:

bit.ly/4liHKQ5

LBC News - 9 June 2025 YouTube video by NFER

Yesterday, our School Workforce Lead and co-author of the research, @jackworth.bsky.social, spoke to LBC News's Vanessa Baffoe about the findings.

[2/2] 👇

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcO6...

Why we must improve teaching’s ethnic diversity – and how Our new research shows more inclusive recruitment and retention is vital to solving the workforce crisis

🔬 'Teaching does not reflect diversity in the working-age or school-age populations - but the diversity of training applicants is high'

Jack Worth presents new research from @thenfer.bsky.social and @mission44.bsky.social
schoolsweek.co.uk/why-we-must-...

“We welcome the Government’s teacher pay award of 4 per cent as it recognises the crucial value of teachers in our society and will help to improve teacher recruitment and retention. “While we also welcome the funding the Government has announced to cover the additional 1.2 per cent above its initial proposal to School Teachers' Review Body (STRB), requiring schools to find efficiencies to fund some of this pay rise puts extra strain on school budgets that are already very tight. Jack Worth, School Workforce Lead

🗣️ Our School Workforce Lead @jackworth.bsky.social has given his reaction to the announcement of a 4% pay rise for teachers and leaders for the 2025/26 academic year, as well as additional funding for schools and colleges.

Read the full quote 👉 bit.ly/4jcuomo

Short answer: probably. bsky.app/profile/jack...

@hugheshaili.bsky.social

indeed very likely so this year, but these targets cover the expected need for the 2026 labour market. Funding during that period uncertain until spending review

Worth noting that the long view suggests that the secondary targets have, in general, been unusually high in the last few years.

And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening

With the uptick in recruitment evident in yesterday's application stats, our overall forecast of the ITT outcomes for Sep 2025 is now looking much more positive

Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year

Secondary overall still below target by 15%.