Had I not checked my notifications today, I might have remained forever ignorant of it

"The review will be concluded in a few weeks and trade uncertainty will cease," is a hell of a hopium-fueled leap.

"The US won't pull out of USMCA or use the threat of a pull out to introduce something crazy, like, 'All imports from Canada and Mexico get assessed a 1% tariff that's deposited directly into a Trump family bank account,'" to,

I hear a lot of hopium on the upcoming USMCA review, as well - expressions that dramatic changes to let alone the dissolution of North American free* trade is too costly for all parties, so it won't happen. That is a reasonable enough view, but jumping from,

Basically, "because the potential outcomes of a protracted war could spiral so far, to both parties detriment, there's no way it can wind up being protracted, right???"

My dudes, a rational actor US never would have started this war!

I continue to believe the economic impacts of this war will prove far worse and more durable than markets reflect, but likewise we're not going to see anything resembling the 70s oil shocks.

I keep hearing comments like, "It has to resolve soon, the US and Iran have too much at stake."

Rorty makes a great point here, and I think we need to take the "be a citizen of our society" part of this seriously

For all the talk about the rising gig economy it’s crazy how much self employment has plummeted!

I can't go into too much detail without possibly doxing myself, but that's flat wrong. Marketing work via temp agencies is effectively nonexistent... Were the claim IC and crowdsourcing, I wouldn't object...

Agencies are - definitionally - W2. 1099 is a whole different beast, different industry.

I thought this was the entire point of conferences. Like, I often spend those asking detailed questions about strategy, operations, etc, and I'm a somewhat ugly man.

... oh. I've been so busy updating reports I didn't even think to do this, and I'm under half a tank.

Thank you for the reminder!

pope leo please do the funny and excommunicate the cheese

wut

the strategy cheese being behind this is another factor in me believing that all of my Twitter enemies joining into one MAGA voltron

the strait of hormuz is in a quantum superposition of open and closed that only collapses when you try to take a tanker through yourself and see if you get shot at

Do not like to see people get themselves into a place where nationwide carpet bombing inspires relief.

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - 2011-09-18 Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - 2011-09-18

www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-0...

If Trump gives an order to use nuclear weapons in Iran, everyone who helps implement that order - right down to the guys driving trucks on the airbase - should end up in front of a firing squad.

same Overton Window-shattering tactic he’s always used: Even if worst doesn’t happen tonight - rhetorically he’s opened up possibility of the unimaginable, making lesser (but still horrible) actions seem moderate by comparison… all increasing likelihood that one day the worst really will happen

bsky.app/profile/irho...

Instead, we'll see an escalation of the war crimes and crimes against humanity we've already done - more bombings of schools, hospitals, water treatment facilities, etc - now in a prime time slot to air live video of a single night "Shock and Awe" war crime blitkreig TV special.

He's likely trying to jawbone a revolution via vague threat of severe consequences should one not occur; in this case, demanding the Iranian people complete the regime change he decided to pursue but cannot achieve. "Bail me out of my own violent thrashings or I'll kill you."

Lots of doom on the timeline, from fixating on one sentence in a screed delivered by a man known to be near-completely illiterate - a man who scarcely understands what words mean. Quite likely he thinks "civilization" means "specific government," and he specifically references the 1979 revolution.

I think a lot about how the weight of the presidency ages holders of the office. But it doesn't age Trump because he has no conception of responsibility to others. Seems more likely it is prolonging his life as he gets to inflict pain on others without consequence.

To paraphrase, "It's client management. If we use established terminology, clients will argue with us. If we make up new technical-sounding terms, they get confused, assume they're mistaken, and they don't argue with us."

Eventually, someone who used to work for them joined the company I was at. One of the first times I spoke with him one on one, I point blank asked him about the frequent use of novel, meaningless jargon at his old place.

tl;dr: Yes

When I did policy work, I often had to cover stuff from a big name consultancy. Without fail their work in my subject area was consistently wrong. One frustration was they always invented new terminology, similar to but distinct from anything established. Reviewing their work was a PITA.

(Firms don't shop around for alternative contribution figures from new vendors because they think the existing estimate is too large, and the numbers this firm already pushes are likely about 10x overstated)

They completely ignored everything I previously told them about what data, resources, and time commitments are needed to do it properly.

Likewise, they ignored my concerns that this specific project will piss off the funder and impact a long-standing partnership, and possibly multiple other clients

Oh ffs.

Someone sold a consulting project, promised the client that I'd do an economic contribution study as part of it - without my ever agreeing.