saw him at an event last year and he looked in great shape for his age at the time

A fusion PPA right now is a late stage VC fundraising tool reflective of how much VC $ has been raised (everyone is in CFS one way or another). I’d just argue it’s not a particularly healthy indicator because it’s not a proxy for bankability and also the potential “theranos of fusion” has got one.

Let me be more precise, CFS is a serious effort but having a PPA signed in the fusion world is not necessarily a robust indicator of tech and commercial advancement/viability vs. ability to drum up PR as Helion demonstrates.

I do think the value of a signed PPA prior to Q>1 is an indicator of limited value.

or landing at Changi…

Same for musk. Once they saw this as a vehicle with substantial financial scope and potential to insert themselves as it’s promoter they really can’t see it any other way… it’s their one true calling

even if it wasn’t bs from the onset, you’d have to consider the developments in context of his demonstrated character and track record not just at OAI but his other ventures… not really consistent or compatible with altruistic stewardship.

scandal prone tech CEO impulsively buying niche media outlet was a well developed tv plot line on Silicon Valley and I’m not sure real life is any more original here?

the thing that yc and others lack is they aren’t well established so lack trust. The benefit of bbg/factset/capiq is that you can use their data and, for better or worse, you can just source: Bloomberg and that’s enough 90% of applications which is massive timesaver

Great for updating ValuationDeck_20260327_BB_draft_vf.pptx with all the charts from CompsMasterFile_vIndustries_exAPACv17updated.xlsx

factset is less than half the price as bbg but it’s sort of optimized for corporate finance work flows hence why it’s more suitable for say junior bankers doing M&A work rather than markets participants and analysts

In aggregate, global LNG supply growth depends on substantial demand beyond EU, CN, JP, KR, TW and India alone wont fill the RoW gap. In RoW, beyond plugging declining dom gas to supply in-place CCGTs, who would be prepared to sanction new lng2power in today’s environment is my question?

$LNG & $VG definitely feel better about potential supply glut with all the client inbounds these past weeks but LNG this decade is fundamentally defined by maturity mismatch between supply (20yrs) and demand (transition & crisis) and it’s hard to see how this is more sustainable than before

look fwd to Ed’s capital adequacy analysis now that he is moving on to mastering Japanese GAAP

cheap & secure (HH linked) LNG is the key assumption in grid/gen planning in so many countries that stops renewables from absolutely dominating incremental generation. Without it, it tilts systems growth in most countries towards all-in on renewables.

I think the routine plot line for these acquisition-as-a-bribe is to stop them from releasing embarrassing gossip about you?

Just exhausting to have to spin up the PR like that every time the thesis changes but there’s also a skill to know what can sell in the market at any given time (and talent to actually do so)

This MBA case is a particularly 🤮 in context of the funds current thesis. For sure someone went all in on x, podcasts & group chats besides of course above average level of industry cynicism.

impact.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/u...

Yes that latter: deep resulting public, private and alumni support.

I use comparison to college football. Not much to do with academia but sure helps fund a lot of it.

I feel like “average” does a lot here when Median is probably closer to 2? Lots of slum lords and RE purists bumping up those numbers?

I like how Pakistan has apparently convinced both sides that the best way to demonstrate goodwill in this negotiation is to give the neutral intermediary more $/oil

“Yes we know it’s strange but that’s exactly what they said, give us some more oil and they will take it as a sign of goodwill!”

I worked in Taiwan a while ago and remember being told “we will tolerate rolling blackouts before we let TSMC down”

unlike lng, coal stocks usually 30d+…

good way to frame that although the fear of asset level catalysts is what causes the structural pieces to trip up. Today it’s gates in retail products, maybe fund level liquidity next.

Sums up every valuation discussion for long term assets where it’s “just use the fwe curve” vs “you can’t do that”

The issue with retail distribution of pc is just that it’s a level of risk, even if fully disclosed, that deviates from the market standard for that client group and the providers are now suffering for being too greedy in AUM expansion

CDs can be withdrawn early with penalty and there is a liquid Secondary markets for them as it’s fairly easy to rate counter party risk of most banks

We have better visibility on what happens as a result of Ukrainian strikes in Russia today than what gets hit in Dubai…

I think it’s just regurgitating admin talking points as it was Bessent who was out with this line a few days ago : “Many people underestimate the will of the American people for short-term volatility for 50 years of safety that we are going to have on the other side of this”