The Baltic States could treat Zelenskyy’s warnings with respect If Zelenskyy is warning us that Russia might attack the Baltics, I think he probably has a pretty good reason. As a Balt, I am surprised that many of us are treating Zelenskyy’s warning with contempt, while I myself understand where he is coming from. Some accuse Zelenskyy of spreading narratives that help Russia. Well, I very much doubt he is trying to help Russia, and I don’t think he would take that risk lightly. Some say he is pushing a fake scare story to focus the West’s attention on supporting Ukraine. But Ukraine has been deprived of that support for a long time, and has unfortunately learnt to live without it. I don’t think he is playing games. I find it more likely that he is offering his honest analysis to his friends. Anybody feeling instinctive anger whenever the issue of a possible Russian attack against a Baltic State is raised should have a think about these three questions: **1.** Are we sure Putin has no good reasons to attack NATO? He only needs one, and it doesn’t need to be as ambitious as a full invasion and annexation. He might be thinking that a small incursion could fracture our alliance and reboot his popularity at home by providing a win for his war machine. He could use his reserves or divert some troops from Ukraine, which he sees is a much harder nut to crack than the Baltics. Are we certain that he isn’t even tempted to try? **2.** If not the Baltics, then where? Even though the Baltic States have raised defence spending as a percentage of GDP to the highest levels in NATO, we remain vulnerable while the effect of that boost comes online. We have no conscription like the Finns, the German brigade won’t be here for at least a year, our militaries are less developed than other potential NATO targets, so why wouldn’t Putin choose us? **3.** And are we 100% certain that Article 5 is still deterring Russia as much as it used to? Even if we still believe in the “ironclad commitment” of our allies, any expert would have to admit that some of our main allies are somewhat distracted right now while others have only recently started rebuilding their militaries. Should Putin wait until Europe gets stronger? Or until US attention returns to Europe? Zelenskyy has good reason to doubt that the West would suddenly experience a surge of bravery if a second country in the East were attacked now, NATO member or not. So I’m sorry, but this is why I see where Zelenskyy is coming from. The Baltics **could** be the target, Putin **might** be tempted, and our allies **are** currently in a tough spot. The window of opportunity is open. > My suggestion to my fellow Baltic statesmen is this: Instead of getting flustered, get ready. Prepare contingency plans, learn Ukrainian survival techniques fast, and think about how to quickly extend the Ukrainian defence umbrella over the Baltic Sea — if indeed the merde does hit the ventilator. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! Sign up and support To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please contact his agent at Champions Book Gabrielius Landsbergis

If Zelenskyy is warning us that Russia might attack the Baltics, I think he probably has a pretty good reason.

The politics of inevitability. @timothysnyder.bsky.social

Is that a sleeping dog blep?

Київ
Це був чудовий момент: три години розмови з нагоди презентації українського перекладу моєї книги «Наша війна. Злочин і забуття», зокрема з моїм другом Костянтином Сіговим, директором видавництва «Дух і літера», та Сергієм Квітом, ректором Національного університету «Києво-Могилянська академія».

That occurred to me, too, and early on. I would add that it's unconsciously imperialistic for them to think that nothing in the world can happen without the US. IOW they've so absorbed their own culture's unspoken assumptions that self-examination has become well-nigh impossible for them.

Re the US far left's beliefs about CIA and Maidan, at 9:30 in you say, "I think that in essence [...] it's a very self-absorbed way of looking at the situation, essentially it's saying 'this is all about us.'" Genau!

russia will not collapse on its own. stop waiting. all empires eventually end. but not without a help.

"Every empire will perish one day. . .So the question is not whether the russian empire will fall one day, but how many other countries and peoples will be destroyed in the meantime if we just passively wait."--Maksym Eristavi

The Wrong Arsenal for the War Ahead Europe is still investing too heavily in armor while the missile gap widens and Ukraine adapts faster than its allies.

How is it even possible that after 4+ years of war in Ukraine that Rheinmetall could be building £1 billion in tanks? Where have these people been? One may even ask, "What is wrong with you people?" www.theconcis.com/p/the-wrong-...

What a clever, quick-witted comment, Prof. Edwards! I congratulate you. Wish I had thought of it.😖

I wonder if you could write more about this. I read the article about Estonia this morning. But Estonia is not the only country that has paid for and is still waiting for weapons/ammunition from the US. Trump has slowed the PURL system, and Japan has also been waiting for US weapons.

Russian trolls and bots. See p.233 of Timothy Snyder's "The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America" (2023 ebook). It served as a distraction. This is—I think—among the most important books written on the subject. He was way ahead of his colleagues when the 1st ed. was published in 2018.

No. Earlier this year you posted a pic of the 3 of you sitting on the floor. Your left hand was on Argo and in your right hand you held an astronomy mag from which you were reading to Cora. Ever since then I've become convinced that she's gonna become an astronomer and make you call her Dr Bernick.

Even after Russia turned Kostiantynivka into a mass of gray, hollowed-out buildings, it continues to lob missiles and drones at the city it has already destroyed. Whenever I think of Kostiantynivka I remember all the people Oleksandr Mykhed interviewed for "I Will Mix Your Blood with Coal."

This was a fascinating discussion BUT I found it curious that when you all were talking about what a post-Putin Russian Federation might look like, no one brought up China. Could you please discuss this in a future podcast? Russia is so dependent on China for raw material purchases.

I had to do a rewind a few times, too, when Jason was talking. Very much enjoyed his comments.

🤭

"More information about the delay in weapons deliveries should become clear on Monday, when a call has been scheduled with U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth." news.err.ee/1610000377/e...

Ukrainian Naval Drone Carrier Intercepts Shahed UAV Using Air-to-Air Drone System For the first time in the world, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed a kamikaze drone using another drone launched from an unmanned surface vessel (naval drone).The Unmanned Systems Forces rep...

"For the first time in the world, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed a [Russian Shahed-type loitering munition] kamikaze drone using another drone launched from an unmanned surface vessel (naval drone)." militarnyi.com/en/news/ukra...

We should repeat this every day: russia is intentionally, deliberately, murdering Ukrainian children, day after day, for the sheer pleasure of it.
We can never forgive this—and above all, we have no right to forgive it.
These crimes will haunt the russians—all russians—for as long as they exist.

"Russia was born an empire and never became a nation." This is the heart of the problem. Bc Ru was never a country it has long suffered from an identity crisis. It doesn't know what it is and for that reason doesn't know what it is not. It is not Ukraine; it is not Georgia; it is not Chechnya, etc.

You stopped the video too soon, Evan. The steps are: rolling on your back → righting yourself → standing up → full body flap → casually walking away. You of all people should know this.

Ukraine introduces new warfare model, defense ministry says Read more

"Ukraine has changed its weapons supply rules to avoid dependence on a single manufacturer. Procurement of UAVs and ammunition is now carried out under a diversification mechanism, allowing for a broader range of developers and improving equipment quality." newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine...

I very much enjoyed this discussion and look forward to more in the future. I started a sub to his newsletter >2y ago, have read his articles in other publications + 2 of his books. He's completely changed my understanding of war, incl. the importance of allies, even for the most powerful countries.

It's like the way people on the sidewalk reacted to the Branch Manager. If a hooman had done the same thing, everyone would have been angry at being forced off the sidewalk. But when that dog came through carrying the long branch, they stepped out of the way, stopped, pointed, and had a good laugh.

Interesting article on tomorrow's elections in Bulgaria.

Sánchez: “Shame on those who remain silent in the face of injustice. Shame on those who exploit workers, who criminalise those who are different, who turn rights into commodities, who defend elite privilege, who support war and violence in Gaza, the West Bank, Ukraine, Lebanon, and the Middle East.”

Oh, my, this sounds like it's going to be a fantastic interview. Sending my best wishes to you and Mr Wilson. Hope we'll be able to watch it on video.

"You can’t erase #Mariupol from your life and move on. It stays with you forever, like a scar etched into your skin. This experience is unique, and there have been very few like it in the history of journalism.

Evgeniy Maloletka’s ‘The Siege of Mariupol’: Documentary books as a way to escape oblivion War creates new symbols that are mostly scary. Unlike before 2013, Ukraine is no longer known by its national symbols, borshch, or boxers. The war — and particular incidents within it — have come to d...

The same old story, yes. #Russians spread messages of various kinds and in different variations only to confuse people so they can’t tell what’s true. chytomo.com/en/evgeny-ma...

At 3s in, we get a full frontal view of his extra-lorg nostrils — the nostrils that can take in and analyze an astonishing range of smells that allow him to make sense of the world around him. No hooman can do what he does with those nostrils. We can't even imagine it.