Scottish polls have been pretty static for the last six months, and point to another SNP big win, but just short of a majority (65) albeit in a PR voting system.
The main interest is whether Reform UK or Labour will come a poor second, and if the Greens can push Conservatives into fourth.
Given there is a Scottish Parliament election in a few weeks time, there hasn't been very many polls. One from Survation last week:
Constituency:
SNP 35%
LAB 19%
REF 19%
CON 11%
GRN 8%
LD 8%
List:
SNP 32%
REF 18%
LAB 17%
CON 13%
GRN 11%
LD 8%
Seat estimate
SNP 62
REF 19
LAB 18
CON 12
GRN 11
LD 7
It's often said that those who are opposed to Assisted Dying legislation are standing up for and speaking for the most vulnerable in society. This is, of course, important. However, we always need to make sure thinking we're speaking up for folk doesn't mean speaking over them and failing to listen.
While last year's Church of Scotland General Assembly voted very narrowly (4 votes) to retain its opposition to Assisted Dying, it received a significant report outlining the fact and reasons people of faith hold different views on Assisted Dying.
www.churchofscotland.org.uk/about-us/our...
A difficult decision for all Scottish Parliamentarians today as the final vote takes place on the Assisted Dying bill.
I am personally for this bill, for which the eligibility is restricted to residents of Scotland with a terminal illness, and a 6 month prognosis.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I am absolutely *not* disputing that.
The *only* point I am disputing is that *if* the genuine concern is to maximise indy seats, then SNP1 GRN2 is a sound strategy in all regions, including Edinburgh.
If GRN beat SNP in Edinburgh the *best* outcome is neutral, but seriously risks -1 net outcome.
Ah OK - this is why we're arguing passed each other.
My argument starts from the premise of accepting the point of the strategy is to maximise the indy seats.
You're prepared to sacrifice the odd indy seat overall to maximise GRN seats.
That's fine, so long as you're upfront about that.
I'm totally accepting the premise the SNP will get no list seats in Edinburgh and Lothians.
In the (albeit projected) numbers you pointed me to, there are 8 indy seats. If SNP1 and GRN2 strategy consistently applied, SNP win 6 seats, GRN still win 3 list. That's 9.
No, I absolutely know that, and I also know that calculating the 7th and 8th seats come down to very small margins.
But let me just put this directly. Does voting GRN in Edinburgh Central *maximise* the indy vote (which is the strategy being advanced) or best case net zero (as I'm arguing).
In fact, looking at the thread you've pointed to with the spreadsheet, the Greens would win a third list seat if they didn't win Ed Central, so again, if the strategy is to maximise indy seats *rather than voting for one's favourite indy party*, then that means SNP1 GRN2 in Ed Central too.
I'm assuming the SNP1 GRN2 strategy.
If this is about *maximising* indy seats. I'm arguing that SNP1 GRN2 needs to be applied consistently.
The possibilities are:
(1) SNP win Ed Cen; GRN win x list seats; SNP win 0.
(2) GRN win Ed Cen; GRN win x-1 list seats; SNP win 0.
(2) is 1 fewer indy seat.
:-) OK, I'll go first and put down the challenge.
It's for those who advocate voting GRN on constituency to show how this could result in a net gain for indy, given:
Any GRN gain would be at expense of SNP: there are no GRN v Unionist seats;
Any GRN constituency would result in one less list seat.
Against the advice at the end of this, it makes zero sense to vote Green in any constituency *if* the concern is to maximise indy seats. If the Greens win a constituency at the expense of the SNP, they'll lose a list seat they would have won, whereas the SNP won't be compensated. So net -1.
Scottish Parliament Polls this week
Yougov/Ipsos/Survation
Constituency
SNP 34/36/37%
Reform 18/16/17%
Labour 14/20/18%
Green 11/7/6%
Conservative 10/9/12%
LD 10/10/9%
Region
SNP 28/26/33%
Reform 19/16/17%
Labour 14/19/17%
Green 16/16/9%
Conservative 10/11/13%
LD 10/10/9%
Three Scottish Parliament Election polls this week. (Yougov/Ipsos/Survation)
Two months out, the SNP are still well in front, with seat projections from 57-64. Some shuffling in all other positions with Labour and Reform battling for a poor second. Two polls show substantial Green gains.
#SP2026
Scottish Election polls showing the SNP significantly down on 2021 performance, but that was a colossal 48% of the vote. Worth bearing in mind, Labour are the only other party which has ever received more than 35% of the vote at a Scottish Election: just once, in the first elections in 1999 (38.8%)
More Scottish Parliament polls out last week.
Yougov/Find Out Now. Same basic story: SNP way out in front, Reform leading Labour
Constituency
SNP 34%/36%
REFuk 18%/21%
LAB 14%/12%
GRN 11%/10%
LD 10%/9%
CON 10%/7%
Regional
SNP 28%/29%
REFuk 19%/20%
LAB 14%/12%
GRN 16%/14%
LD 10%/9%
CON 10%/10%
Norstat Scottish Parliament poll 15 Feb 2026.
Constituency:
SNP 35%
Reform UK 19%
Labour 17%
Conservative 10%
Green 8%
LibDem 8%
Regional List:
SNP 30%
Reform UK 19%
Labour 17%
Conservative 11%
Green 11%
LibDem 7%
Alba 3%
Seat estimate (John Curtice)
SNP 60
RUK 22
LAB 16
CON 13
GRN 10
LD 8
John Curtice projection on today's Norstat Scottish Parliament election poll.
To put this in perspective, the highest number of seats attained by a party other than the SNP in Holyrood is 56 (LAB, 1999).
38 would be (by far) largest lead in seats between winners and second. (33, SNP v CON, 2021)
There's a lot of very silly commentary on this poll, which was almost certainly commissioned by Restore.
It does *not* say these are the current voting intentions;
It does not suggest there's anything wrong with the polling firm.
The question was designed to 'advertise' Restore.
John Curtice notes that the Greens don't normally stand in all constituencies, and an adjusted seat estimate might be:
SNP 61
Labour 18
Reform 18
LibDem 13
Conservative 11
Green 8
Polls so far suggesting another SNP win. The order of the opposition parties keeps changing, and is the main interest.
Scottish Election (Holyrood) poll (More in Common, 5 Feb 2026).
Constituency:
SNP 35%
Reform 19%
LAB 18%
CON: 11%
LibDem: 10%
GRN: 5%
Regional:
SNP 25%
Reform 20%
LAB 19%
LibDem 13%
CON 12%
GRN 9%
Seat estimate (John Curtice)
SNP 59
LAB 19
Reform 19
LibDem 13
CON 11
GRN 8
Very sad news that the former Scottish Health Secretary, Jeanne Freeman, who served through the Covid19 pandemic, has died.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Scottish Election poll (Yougov 28 January - fieldwork much earlier). #SP2026
Constituency
SNP 34%
Reform 20%
LAB 15%
CON 10%
Lib Dem 10%
GRN 9%
Regional
SNP 29%
Reform 20%
LAB 15%
GRN 12%
CON 11%
LD 9%
Rough seat projection (electionpolling)
SNP 59
Reform 24
Labour 16
CON 12
GRN 10
LD 8
Very sorry to hear about the death of Jim Wallace. As well as the first Deputy First Minister in the Scottish Parliament, he was Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland in 2021-2022 (the first male elder to hold the role in 400 years!).
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Two Scottish Independence polls published this week.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
(Survation)
YES 50%
NO 50%
(Norstat)
YES 51%
NO 49%
Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) seat projection on Norstat/Sunday Times poll (16/1/26) (electionpolling: other models have different outcome) #SP2026
SNP 59 (-5)
Reform UK 19 (+19)
Labour 18 (-4)
Conservative 14 (-17)
Green 10 (+2)
LibDem 9 (+5)
SNP 6 short of a majority
Independence majority +9
Second Scottish Election poll out (Norstat, 16/1/26). Consistent with last few polls. SNP well in front with Labour and Reform UK jostling for second. #SP2026
Constituency:
SNP 35%
LAB 19%
Reform 17%
CON 11%
LibDem 9%
GRN 7%
Regional List:
SNP 29%
LAB 17%
Reform 16%
CON 12%
GRN 11%
LibDem 9%
Holyrood seat projection from first Scottish Election poll of 2026. (Survation/True North, 15/1/26). #SP2026
SNP 61 (-3)
Lab 18 (-4)
Ref 18 (+18)
Con 12 (-19)
LD 11 (+7)
Grn 9 (+1)
Independence majority +11
43 seats would be the largest winning distance in devolution history.
First full Scottish Parliament poll of the year (Survation/True North, 15/1/26).
Constituency
SNP 34%
Reform 19%
Labour 16%
Conservative 13%
LibDem 9%
Green 8%
Regional List
SNP 28%
Labour 18%
Reform 18%
Conservative 13%
LibDem 11%
Green 9%
Seat Projection
SNP 61
Lab 18
Ref 18
Con 12
LD 11
Grn 9