DIA Director: "Iran retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure." armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...
My guess is briefers wanted him to understand this was "scary material," but not "thing you stick wholesale into a bomb" yet. Maybe someone came up with this. Not bad, honestly, given the pathologies you're managing with this POTUS.
A big step towards a quickie deal, with Iran in control of reopened Hormuz. A big relief for the global economy but not great news for the strategic balance in the region. Gulfies but also Israel find themselves in a deep strategic predicament after the US war and peace of Trumpian choice
Obviously someone ran out of cocktails and Claude tokens. 😬
Iran did not have a stockpile of highly enriched uranium until after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA because Iran was prohibited from doing so and under monitoring, Trump is the arsonist taking credit for putting out the fire he started.
Receipts (NPT, fatwa, Khamenei on fatwa, JCPOA). Imagine killing a school full of children just to make Iran promise this one more time.
Iran made the same statement when it acceded to the NPT, when Khamenei issued the beaten-to-death fatwa and when Zarif signed the JCPOA. We lacked trust, not promises.
Maybe. Still sore about the influencer who ruined OTR in DC.
Maybe both.
The Black Manhattan soothes my weary soul.
(Don’t blab and ruin it for the rest of us, @dylanplmiars.bsky.social.)
I am vibe-coding some missile modeling software on my phone from a Japanese-style listening bar in Oakland. Shit’s weird.
AIS has been off for almost 24 hours.
Still stopped.
Some remarkable details in James Jinks' new paper for Policy Exchange. In 1990 'the French attempted to keep the ASLP-D2 [missile] option alive by offering ‘the UK the French design of the nuclear warhead for the ASLP-D2 for production in the UK...' t.co/M450CTILEt
Been stopped for several hours now.
Still going.
Destination not available.
Well, let’s see what happens.
While I don’t disagree, I do think China has a credible deterrent threat — just not in theater. I would worry about horizontal escalation closer to China, particularly in the South China Sea.
Reposted.
I told @trbrtc.bsky.social & @johnismay.bsky.social the missile involved in the strike that killed 21 civilians, including at least 5 children, appears to be ~15 feet long--closer to a PrSM than an Iranian cruise missile. This is how I made that estimate.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...
Try now
So, let’s game this out. A Chinese flagged tanker pays the toll and transits the strait. We interdict it? What if the tanker is escorted by a Chinese warship?
Great @joshuakeating.bsky.social interview with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social www.vox.com/politics/485...
Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for laden oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire.
Read more here: ft.trib.al/e33nkjr
My experience watching Trump "negotiate" with Kim Jong Un was: Kim never offered to disarm, Pompeo would wishcast disarmament, lots of media would amplify, a couple of summits happened, but no deal emerged ... leaving Kim stronger than before. Maybe this time is different.
APNewsAlert: TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — #Iran includes 'acceptance of enrichment' in Farsi version of its ceasefire plan, something missing from English versions.
Again, the football is not necessary. The code is only to authenticate his voice and the case just contains briefing materials.