The adjustment in whiffs above average with two strikes appears to be relatively sticky from year-to-year. Adjustment in fouls above average with two strikes was not too sticky. This seems about right.

Last night I posted batters that were able to decrease their whiffs above average with two strikes. Here are the batters whose whiffs above average increased the most with two strikes last year.

Whiffs above average adjustment with two strikes

Here's a look at the batters who decreased their whiffs above average the most with two strikes compared to early counts in 2025.

He had a positive Foul Adjustment score, but not high enough to crack the Top 10

2025 Fouls Above Average leaders

Been working on updating my contact model and decided to take a look fouls above average with and without two strikes. Here are the batters who managed to foul off more pitches than expected with 2 strikes compared to earlier counts.

Hard to tell how much of the decreased swing aggression is due to the smaller strike zone. It is pretty apparent that batters are adjusting to high fastballs by not swinging as much.

Swing % delta

Strike Zone Delta

I had previously shown the shrinkage in strike zone from 2024 to 2025, so I wanted to see how Swing% was impacted. The following shows the delta in expected Swing% between 2024 and 2025 based on the xSwing% model I created.

I was expecting a decrease in swings on the edges where the zone shrunk.

Year-to-Year correlation of Deception score

Ran the year-to-year correlation of my pitcher Deception score, and found that's it's not the most predictive. Somewhat similar to ERA year-to-year.

Updated the deception metric so that the score is positive for:

1) Swings outside of the strike zone
2) Takes inside the strike zone

Here's the new top 10 for 2025.

Here's a more visual look at swings above expected for Framber Valdez.

I've attempted to quantify pitcher deception using a XGBoost backed xSwing model. The model predicts the league average swing probability, and a more deceptive pitcher would induce more swings than predicted by the model. Here's a leaderboard from 2025 (>500 pitches).

I took a look at the 2024 vs 2025 strike difference for 2-strike and 3-ball counts. A predictable result, but the strike zone shrinkage is more pronounced for the 3-ball counts.

Probability change of a called strike from 2024 to 2025.

A look at the difference in probability of a called strike in 2024 vs. 2025. The strike zone was tighter, particularly on the inner and outer edge.

The Rays acquired Brett Wisely from the Braves this afternoon. Wisely is good up the middle defensively, but hasn't provided much with the bat. Good contact skills, but not enough power and the plate discipline isn't good enough to draw walks.

Jake McCarthy is headed to the Rockies. Had some bad luck on batted balls last year, but also really struggled with swing decisions. With his speed and below average power you'd like to see a better BB%.

Thinking about switching from the box and whisker plots I've been using to a more condensed dashboard with percentiles and the deserved wOBA based on these metrics. Would probably keep the plots for year-to-year comparisons, though. Any feedback would be appreciated!

Austin Slater batting metrics comparison - 2024 to 2025

Despite bad numbers in 2025, Austin Slater might deserve one last look if a team is need of a righty platoon bat. The results weren't pretty, but the underlying metrics suggest some bad luck. Especially when looking at Impact 👀 Biggest concern is the increase in chase rate.

Looking forward to seeing Sal Stewart in a full season. He showed plenty of power in his 58 PAs in 2025. Along with adequate contact skills and swing decisions.

Hi, BlueSky converts. Probably deserves some updating, but here's a list of baseball analytics nerds if that's up your alley.

go.bsky.app/GZjLuxK

Jahmai Jones slashed .287/.387/.550 in a platoon role over a career high 150 PAs in 2025. His dwOBA suggests he was a bit lucky, but he showed major improvement in swing decisions and Impact.

I've been checking the 2025 leaderboard for good seasons I may have missed. Carter Jensen had a nice start to his career with above average SDr, Connect, and Impact. His dwOBA of 0.385 was not far off his actual wOBA of 0.403. Interested to see how he does in 2026 with a larger sample size.

Carter Jensen dwOBA

Using my new regression model, I determined a deserved wOBA (dwOBA) based on their SDr, Connect, and Impact. The graph is a probability distribution of the dwOBA with the most likely value labeled. The hitter's actual wOBA is also shown for comparison.

Here are the plots to go with the Importance Index determined from a couple days ago. I thought there might be a steep drop off if Contact got too bad (indicating there was some minimum level of contact ability required), but the results don't show much of one.

I've been playing around with developing a non-linear Bayesian regression model to predict wOBA from SDr, Connect+, and Impact+. I'd like to determine the contribution from each to wOBA. My first attempt came up with Impact+ at ~50%, Connect+ at ~30%, and SDr at ~20%. This seems about right?

Willson Contreras - Hitting Profile

Willson Contreras makes up for below average Connect+ with adequate swing decisions and excellent Impact+. The drop in walk rate in 2025 looks to be due to pitchers throwing in the zone to him more often.

Jhonkensy Noel's 2025 was rough, but not sure I would give up on him so soon after the power he showed in 2024.

Maikel Garcia - Batting Profile

Maikel Garcia's offensive 2025 breakout came due to increasing his already excellent contact rate, slightly increasing his contact quality, and maintaining his good swing decisions (mainly by not swinging a lot). Also, an increased Pull Air% also helps!

Coby Mayo - Batting Profile

Ryan Mountcastle - Batting Profile

Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle are probably most affected in Baltimore by the Alonso signing.

Mayo needs to improve his contact if he's not going to hit for more power.

Mountcastle's contact rate really stepped back in 2025, and he saw a dip in BB% and K%.

Impact+ Stabilization Curve

Last is the Impact+ stability curve. Impact+ is reliable after ~130 balls in play.

Are there any platoon effects?