As expected, jump in asylum apps from Iranian nationals in March26. At 96 apps, around double monthly average for past 12 months.

No Iranians granted asylum at primary stage in March 26. That is unusual. Govt may be waiting for further information on the situation in Iran.

Duniam contradicts Taylor on Coalition immigration policy Recent comments from Coalition Shadow Immigration Spokesperson Jonno Duniam expose inconsistencies in the party's immigration policy, raising questions about feasibility, cost, and intent.

Contradictions between Taylor & his Immigration spokesperson Jonno Duniam on immigration policy are now a chasm. How will they reconcile the differences? johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04... %26 Irritations

Angus Taylor pushes English requirement for permanent visa holders Angus Taylor’s proposal to mandate English for permanent visa holders raises serious questions about fairness, practicality and its underlying political intent.

I wrote this on Taylor’s English language obligation for permanent residents announcement before Duniam contradicted it on Sunday. Duniam’s position is essentially no change. So which is official Coalition policy on English language for permanent residents? independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

Australian Values compliance for One Nation voters? Well done Angus! Angus Taylor's social media vetting of Australian values for visa holders will be costly, labour-intensive and ultimately untenable.

When I first heard about the ‘Australian Values’ migration policy, it sounded like a cross between a thought bubble & a dog whistle. Upon deeper inspection, it turns out to be a very expensive thought bubble and dog whistle. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

Unfortunately the usual suspects will use the NPLT data all they can until then.

We won’t get a preliminary estimate for Q1 2026 until Sept26.

On asylum, the Coalition is offering old fixes to problems of its own making The Coalition’s asylum plan repackages familiar measures that have failed before, while sidestepping its role in creating a large and growing backlog of unsuccessful applicants.

The unsuccessful asylum seekers Taylor wants to deport largely arrived when he was a minister. He will want OZ public to forget that. But are his plans much different to Trump’s ham fisted approach? johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04... %26 Irritations

Migration numbers explode under Labor as standards slip - Liberal Party of Australia New data released today shows Labor has no plan to address Australia’s migration crisis.

This is seriously misleading. Migration is still high but it is not ‘exploding’. Net migration in 25-26 may not fall as far as Treasury has forecast (ie 260k) but it will be lower than in 24-25 (ie 305k). www.liberal.org.au/2026/04/15/m...

Australia’s immigration powers are already godlike. So why does Angus Taylor want them to be Trump-like too? | Abul Rizvi Taylor provides few details on how his immigration plan would work. Is showing he can outdo Pauline Hanson’s rhetoric the main objective?

No one would object to migrants having OZ values. But what would be a breach of OZ values that is not also a breach of existing character provisions which already give Immi minister god-like powers? Sounds like a logistical, legal and cost nightmare. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

When will housing completions in Australia overtake population growth? Australia’s housing pressures reflect years of mismatched policy – with falling supply colliding with surging migration and labour market shocks.

There has been a mismatch between house completions & population growth since before covid. Govt forecasts suggest completions may exceed population growth from early 2027. But will the forecasts be delivered? johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04...

Suggested Cabinet submission for 2026-27 migration and humanitarian program The Albanese Government is about to consider a cabinet submission on the 26-27 migration program. Former Immigration Department Deputy Secretary Dr Abul Rizvi has drafted IA's submission.

Govt will likely soon consider a cab sub for 26-27 mig prog. It will be one that is awfully difficult due to range of issues that need to be addressed & the current politics. This is the cab sub i would suggest the govt consider. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

International student ‘whiplash’ as visa rejections hit 20-year high Higher education leaders are demanding a predictable policy from the Albanese government after data showing a massive spike in visa refusals for overseas students.

The whiplash is the function of a lack of a longterm migration plan. Knee jerk policy changes dont instil public confidence in management of migration. www.afr.com/policy/econo...

None of the diverse ‘journalists’ writing for this Aussie news site are real A fully automated news site with no journalists shows how easily AI can mimic credibility – and how exposed Australia is to manipulation.

This would be a much cheaper way to manipulate public opinion than many of the media and social media propaganda outlets currently run by various domestic and overseas billionaires. Why pay a human being to run utterly predicatable propoganda reflecting the owners views?

Net migration in SeptQ 25 was 87k compared to 81k in SeptQ 24. Makes delivery of Treasury net migration forecast for 25-26 of 260k very difficult. Govt will need to tighten policy further to deliver Treasury forecasts.

ABS data out today had net migration for 12 months to Sept25 at 311k. Revised estimate net migration for 24-25 was 310k. Net migration in SeptQ 25 was 87k. SeptQ 24 was 81k. First time net migration has stopped falling since 22-23 surge. Pressure on govt to tighten policy further.

Tomorrow ABS will release preliminary estimate of NOM for Sept Q 2025. All things equal, govt will be hoping for an estimate of around 70,000 to be on track forecast of NOM in 25-26 of 260,000. If estimate is 80,000 or over, it means NOM stopped falling for first time since 22-23 surge.

Farrer by-election a test for One Nation immigration policy A tight by-election race in Farrer is set to spotlight One Nation’s call for negative net migration against the labour realities of regional Australia.

Immigration policies of the 2 leading contenders in Farrer by-election could not be greater. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

Immigration and toxic nostalgia A counterfactual simulation suggests Australia would be smaller, older and economically weaker today if immigration policy had remained restricted to predominantly European sources.

Beale describes an interesting counter factual on immigration (he was my division head in early 1980s when i was just starting out in the public service). The reality is that our policies of the early 1970s would never have been sustained. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/03... %26 Irritations

So who is paying for these to be created? www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03...

Price is always determined on global markets.

Treatment of Iranian asylum seekers reeks of contradictions Australia quickly offered protection to Iranian women footballers who drew global attention. At the same time, new migration laws aim to prevent other Iranian visa holders from even reaching Australia...

My take on the Iranian asylum seekers. The famous ones and the not so famous ones. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/03...

Angus Taylor’s immigration rhetoric faces policy reality Calls to reduce immigration by “raising standards” sound tough, but current visa settings are already far tighter than in 2022 and further cuts would come with economic costs.

While Labor will need to tighten policy further to get to Treasury NOM forecasts (as affirmed by the PM), options for lowering NOM a lot further than that are not great without a much weaker labour market.

Re Iran women’s footy team, OZ govt does not solicit asylum apps. In past when OZ Govt has deemed it too dangerous for temporary visa holders to return due to war, it has offered temporary visa extensions. I’m surprised it hasn’t already done that.

Australia loses another oil refinery, leaving our fuel supply vulnerable to regional crises The loss of Melbourne's Altona oil refinery, on top of the looming Kwinana closure in Perth, raise fresh concerns about the nation's ability to produce enough fuel if shipping and supply chains are ev...

In a space of 4 months in 2021, OZ lost half its oil refineries. Did anyone argue to keep them open? Who was Energy Minister at the time? www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02...

Pauline Hanson corrects her immigration arithmetic Pauline Hanson’s revised immigration maths may finally add up, but the economic consequences of her policy would be devastating.

It would be good if Hanson could be interviewed on her new immigration policy. Any explanation would be fascinating. Even more interesting would be if she submitted her policy for PBO costing.

Yesterday PM affirmed support for Treasury net migration forecasts through to 2030-31. That would require significant further policy tightening unless there is a substantial weakening of labour market.

Student visa approvals fall despite higher 2026 planning level Having encouraged expansion, the Government is now curbing student visa grants to contain net migration and protect the permanent program.

Constant chopping and changing of student visa policy is function of not having a longterm immigration plan. That is despite pre-Election promise to develop one. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

After considerable delay, DHA has decided to resume obeying the Senate Order on a monthly report on asylum seekers. This morning both the Dec and Jan reports were published.

Earlier this week I asked DHA why it had stopped publishing monthly asylum seeker data despite a Senate Order to do so. They said they would get back to me today.

Jan26 offshore student data confirms further policy tightening. Has govt recognised it made a mistake increasing planning level for 2026? Has it worked out that would have put upwards pressure on NOM?