3\ there's a ton of pressure to cut rates. Russian companies are begging for it, and the budget is paying huge amounts.
But cutting rates risks massive inflation again, including on imported food. Putin is acting as if he wants to want to avoid that.
2\ Russia's budget planned for 12-13% *annual average*, not 12-13% "by the end of the year".
If rates drop to 12.5%, annual average should be 14%+.
Russia owes ~300bn rub for each 1% in interest rates. If rates are ~1.5% higher than planned, expect +400-500bn rub expenses over budget.
1\ Don't believe Russian forecasts, but it's worth looking at what they're saying IMO. From January;
"[Sberbank CFO] Skvortsov suggested the Central Bank of Russia could cut its key rate in both February and March, with the rate seen settling at 12-13% by the end of 2026, from 16%."
Ukrainian drone with a Starlink on it was downed. The operators didn’t report it and have the starlink deactivated. The russians repurposed the Starlink and sent it back on an attack drone
Gotta be careful with these.
This sucks.
Russia will get almost +130% mineral extraction tax Vs last month.
This *should* be offset somewhat by subsidies to refineries for Russian domestic consumption.
Still, a flood of cash to help save Russia's war for a bit longer. 😢
That's what I expected your method to be.
Really appreciate you sharing this on bsky and explaining the details behind the map. Keep it up please! 👍
This is not good. That heroic defenders need to stay in positions so long without rotation is very bad.
April revenues should , sadly, look better than last year. Increased domestic VAT + Republicans' Iran war oil effect.
I've got a few budget items I want to look at. I think they might be hiding the scale of their problems again.
Given that Trump cannot be trusted to honour any deal, how about up-front payment from the US. Trump cannot be given credit, he must pre-pay plus the risk premium.
I'm sure we could organise it that Ukraine pays back over time the cash if the US honours its side or something.
Tuapse is still on fire (see below), and Reuters reports both Tuapse and Novokuibishevsk oil refineries have been knocked out of commission.
Russia reports "100% control"over the Luhansk region-for the fourth time
The history of Russia's "control"over Luhansk region:
- July 2022:Shoigu had already reported "full liberation."
- June 2025:Gerasimov once again ceremoniously "captured"everything
- October 2025:Putin speaks of "almost 100%"
Thanks.
Including the videos where the image cuts out on (or near) impact but there's no post-hit footage confirming destruction?
Nice job btw, please keep posting!
5\ Financial crisis? They ran TONS of auctions then, but the volumes were tiny.
Zero issued in April 2007. April 2008 is attached and 2009 looks similar. Small repos of tens of billions, not the thousands of billions of April 2026.
4\ Crimea?
That was BIG. Direct sanctions hit, repo around 3tr rub. So, inflation-adjusted the post-Crimea repo was probably bigger than 2026.
After Crimea they alos sold $100bn (about a quarter) of the central bank's forex to stabilise things, and Russian growth basically flatlined after.
3\ Covid: 3 years before had nothing, then a bit in 2020/2021.
Tiny compared with 2026.
2\ Here's the rest of the full-scale invasion Aprils.
Nothing in 2024. A couple of smaller ones in 2023. A lot of action in 2022 as they dealt with the financial shock of the full-scale invasion but again much smaller.
2026 is something different.
What about Covid?
1\ 21 Apr 2026 russian repo:
👉 4.48tr rub for 1 week
Repo=temporary money creation. Last year it was much smaller and was drastically reducing around now.
This April is bigger than Covid or Financial Crisis Aprils. Inflation adjusted smaller than Crimea Apr 2014 response.
good news :)
source: ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/21/r...
These are geolocated video hits right.
Do you require visible confirmation of destruction to include them?
“Minus the occupiers' air defense: summary 01.04 – 21.04. In 21 days, 27 targets were systematically "minus-ed":
🟢 11 radars and detection systems
🔴 16 SAM systems and launchers
There are more targets, but they have not been added to the map because it was not possible to geolocate…”
2\ Russia's financial plan includes falling interest rates during 2026.
This would reduce expenses on their ~30tr rub outstanding variable-rate debt (state+subsidised).
Look for a 1%+ interest rate cut on Friday. Anything weaker than 1% is drifting away from target = bad for budget plan.
1\ Russian expenses 2026 Vs 2025
👉 Jan-March +17%
👉 April 1-16th: -7%.
Within-month spending is lumpy. Doesn't mean much yet.
Russia's full-year budget plan is +2.7% nominal expenses. They need spending cuts April-Dec to hit that goal.
Watch interest rate meeting this week.
🇷🇺 crude exports through 13 Apr: running at €335M/day - +30% vs March. Urals price surged to €463/t (March: €399/t) as Iran/Hormuz tensions lifted global oil prices. If sustained, April projects to ~€10B - which would be the strongest month since the war began. A geopolitical windfall.
The Ukrainian source quoted here has been pretty balanced. He has historically been very clear and loud about problems faced by Ukraine.
If he's positive now, there's something to it.
Next week I'm expecting/hoping for new financial info:
- update to electronic budget
- extrabudgetary & region budget reports
- Russian central bank meeting
There are two specific things I'm looking for in the second bullet point. Keep an eye out for this.
2\ My read is that perpetua and kriegsforscher seem perhaps a bit more concerned about Russian progress towards Slovyansk/Kramatorsk?
1\ I think monstars is well worth reading.
Two others include @andrewperpetua.bsky.social here
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20385...
And @kriegsforscher.bsky.social here
twomarines.substack.com/p/battlefiel...
To understand why the USA is where it is today, all you need to do is see that Trump cannot tolerate even the mildest, insightful criticism from the Pope, but Trump will allow Putin to humiliate him deeply and constantly, while still craving Putin’s approval.
I wondered if it might be that.
This OFZ increased in value by ~10% yoy. That didn't happen with all, but there's a lot of outstanding OFZ-PD and their market values have been rising. At a guess it could be enough to explain hundreds of billions of roubles?
But could be other securities.
Well fuck.
Unsurprising. It was a bigger surprise they expired for a bit.
More republican help for Russia.
