Chart showing rate of severe school absences by region: England
For our chart of the week we've dug into the data on school absences.
Worryingly, the rate of severe school absences is rising. And there's a lot of regional variation, with London performing significantly better.
Read the full newletter from @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️
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Pre-Middle East conflict UK economic data from ONS:
GDP rose by 0.5% in February
Unemployment fell from 5.3 to 4.9% in January
Borrowing in February £1.9bn below the OBR forecast
Positive trends now all at risk. No wonder the Chancellor is seething in Washington…
Good to see removing the Carbon Price Support form part of this. Something @resolutionfoundation.org suggested way back in 2023
@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social times column this week is an incredibly pithy (even by his standards!) summary of the issues and changes in working age welfare - including why spending on it isn't out of control.
Today we discussed new research from @resolutionfoundation.org co-authored with @gthwaites.bsky.social @annastansbury.bsky.social and Richmond Egyei on the long shadow that deep poverty in childhood casts over the earnings of graduates in the labour market.
Thread below on what we found …
Important report out today. Child poverty isn't just bad, it causes a lasting earnings penalty. Perhaps some gap is not so surprising. But I was shocked by the scale of the penalty persisting even for children who go to university, get the same degree and work for the same firm.
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I've been wondering this week whether we are all (myself included) talking too much about energy prices and not enough about food.
Brilliant thread from Elliott unpacking this mornings public sector finances
Today’s labour market stats were better than expected – headline unemployment didn’t rise thanks to a surprise Jan single month number, and payrolled jobs rose. Real wages are still growing (slowly), but war in the middle east clouds the outlook there. Thread from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social
Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75% on a striking unanimous vote. All eyes on how the BoE might change tack in the face of renewed energy shock. Thread on that to follow…
Doesn't mean there is no room for improvement. I would 1) increase the OBR's resources and make its budget independent of that of HMT 2) increase the number of BRC members and 3) publish the pre-measures forecasts (ideally fixing the Budget date too). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Good session at the TSC's Inquiry into the OBR. Thanks to @julianhjessop.bsky.social for the football analogy that survived the whole evidence session. Think we ended up all agreeing on one thing: the referee is not mainly to blame for the low growth high debt situation the UK finds itself in.
The number of Mais lectures delivered by a woman currently rising by 25%. On that basis alone glad Rachel took two shots.
Disappointing UK GDP this morning with the economy flatlining in January. Bit surprising given survey suggesting a brighter start to the year. Outlook is now clouded by conflict in Iran. Plenty for the Chancellor to worry about as she prepares for next week's Mais lecture. Short thread to follow...
Really enjoyed recording this podcast with @gilesyb.bsky.social and @jamessmithrf.bsky.social . Check out our discussion of where the spring forecast leaves the UK and growth policy in particular.
In her speech yesterday, the Chancellor said the question people will be asking themselves at the next election is "are me and my family better off?"
So what is the answer likely to be? 🧵
chart showing Impact of policy announcements on borrowing in last year of forecast, by fiscal event
Despite insisting this was not a fiscal event, Government policy decisions added £5.7 billion to borrowing, mostly due to higher SEND spending.
Ranking all fiscal events since 2010 by their impact on borrowing, today's Forecast is in the bigger half of fiscal events.
Speech had surprisingly little on global context. Truth is Iran has the potential to put government cost of living plans completely off track. UK exposed to disruption to LNG supplies from Qatar. Impact of gas price moves so far if sustained would be over £500 increase in energy price cap in July.
Disappointed not to see any immediate action on NEETs in particular. With almost one in six young people who want to work unable to find a job, they deserve clarity on minimum wage policy and an expanded Jobs Guarantee scheme now. Chancellor appeared to promise action soon.
We were promised no new policy.....and the speech delivered. Policy announcements since the last Budget still amount to over £4bn extra borrowing though, so if this was a fiscal event it would be some distance from the smallest ever (not even top 10).
Chancellor says current budget surplus of £24bn in 29/30. That's an increase in headroom of £2bn compared to the Autumn. Headroom to debt falling of £27bn up £3bn from the Autumn.
Headroom up by about £2bn. Small in the grand scheme of the public finances. Borrowing shift overall looks like marginal improvement relative to Autumn.
Chancellor confirms she will make a growth speech in 2 weeks time. "mais lecture number 2"
Chancellor appears to promise further action on youth unemployment. Good. Why not crack on and announce it today?
Level of GDP will be slightly lower by the end of the forecast based on those growth numbers.
Chancellor tells unemployment higher but not by how much. Ends at 4.1% - same as the Autumn.
Growth forecasts lower (0.3ppt) in 2026 but same after that. Don’t forget that the level of GDP was 0.4ppt lower than the OBR expected by the end of 2025 though.
Inflation came in lower at the end of last year than the OBR expected. Unsurprisingly Chancellor keen to emphasise important relief from further cost of living pressures, though of course this is about the slowing of price rises not price falls. And global events could completely change the outlook.
Shortest ever gap btwn OBR Autumn&Spring forecast and no big news (forecast closed before this weekend) means we aren't expecting sig changes. Lower growth, higher unemployment, lower migration, lower inflation , higher wages and lower debt interest costs should broadly come out in the wash.