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Posts by Karsten Donnay

🚨CfA🚨 We're looking for a postdoc joining us in summer in Berlin. 3-year position @hertieschool.bsky.social @hertiedatascience.bsky.social. Pursue your own research agenda in data science for public policy - ML/AI, causal inference, computational methods. Questions? Don't hesitate to reach out!

13 hours ago 13 17 0 0
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Half of Europe’s towns and villages have fewer residents than 60 years ago A data analysis by CORRECTIV.Europe reveals for the first time that even as Europe’s overall population grows, half of its municipalities are losing inhabitants.

This is great!

Municipal population change 1961 - 2024 in 🇪🇺🇬🇧🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮, courtesy of @correctiv.org @fridathurm.bsky.social @adahomolova.bsky.social

18 hours ago 19 7 1 0
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Book Talk | Making a Career in Dictatorship | Zeppelin Universität The Secret Logic Behind Repression And Coups: Book Talk with Prof Dr Adam Scharpf, University of Copenhagen

📚 Book Talk am Bodensee

🗓 Do, 23.04.2026
🕖 19:15–20:45
📍 Zeppelin Universität

Für alle, die sich für Politik, Geschichte & Autokratien interessieren. Ich freue mich auf den Austausch!

Vielen Dank an @debremaria.bsky.social & @steffenhurka.bsky.social für die Einladung.

Mehr Infos & Anmeldung: 👇

15 hours ago 10 2 0 1

Please repost in your networks, this is a very interdisciplinary conference and we hope to attract scholars across (but not limited to): communication, political science, psychology, sociology, computer and data science, linguistics & law!

4 days ago 1 0 0 0

🎓 Organizing committee:

@morganwack.bsky.social, @sarakallis.bsky.social, @abovet.bsky.social, Fynn Bachmann, @matthiasleese.bsky.social, @philipdisalvo.bsky.social, Rebekka Rieser, @fgilardi.bsky.social, myself & Meret Prangulaishvili

4 days ago 1 0 1 0

📎 Full call for papers here: digitalpublics.dsi.uzh.ch/app/uploads/...

The conference is a continuation and expansion of the very successful Digital Democracy Workshop series that ran for six years from 2020 to 2025.

4 days ago 1 1 1 0
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📢 Call for Papers: first Annual Digital Publics Conference

📅 21–23 October 2026 | Digital Society Initiative, University of Zurich

👉 To submit: forms.cloud.microsoft/e/BxVnAMyxNh

❗Deadline for abstract submissions is 31 May 2026❗Acceptance notifications will be sent by early july.

4 days ago 10 7 1 0
Little change in a changing landscape: Tracking exposure to untrustworthy news in Germany from 2017 to 2024. | Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media

New publication 📄 "Little change in a changing landscape: Tracking exposure to untrustworthy news in Germany from 2017 to 2024". So far, my shortest paper - and the first with @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social! Read our brief description of news web browsing @journalqd.bsky.social

2 weeks ago 18 6 0 0
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(1/8) New Open Access paper out today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social:

doi.org/10.1017/S147...

"The effects of government propaganda in electoral authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Turkey"
with @draege.bsky.social & @chknutsen.bsky.social

#polisky #socsky #commsky #dictatorsky #OA

3 weeks ago 30 8 2 2
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Associate Professorship of Causal and Experimental Methods in Politics and Social Policy University salary from £58,265 - £77,645 per annum which is inclusive of an Oxford University Weighting of £1,730 p.aPermanent upon completion of a successful review. The review is conducted during th...

📣 New job at Oxford's Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM)! 📣

The Departments of Politics & IR (DPIR) and Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) are hiring an Associate Professor of Causal and Experimental Methods.

Come work with me and amazing Oxford peeps! Deadline NOON April 27th.

4 weeks ago 46 56 1 1
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Digital Retaliation? Denial-of-Service Attacks after Sanction Events Abstract. Conventional wisdom expects to see a rise in cyber activities around aggressive foreign policy events. In this article, I test this claim by inve

Looking at the consequences of the US/Israeli war against Iran in cyberspace apparently shows similar patterns of low-tech retaliation cyberattacks as documented in my study on the consequences of US sanctioning events: academic.oup.com/jogss/articl... - www.radware.com/security/thr...

4 weeks ago 2 1 0 0
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Der "Glassworm" treibt immer mehr Unwesen Vor allem Entwickler werden durch manipulierte Pakete und Extensions auf Github und anderen Repositories gefährdet.

Die Hintermänner von Glassworm wollen Wallets ausrauben, suchen aber auch nach Informationen zu System-Zugängen.

1 month ago 1 1 0 0
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Who produces hate speech? And how does that matter for content moderation?

We show that across different countries and platforms, a relatively small share of users are responsible for a very large share of hate - overall, 5% write 83-100% of hateful content.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

1 month ago 52 20 1 4
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The train has left the station: Agentic AI and the future of social science research | Brookings A new era of agentic AI agents has begun. What does it mean for social scientists? Solomon Messing and Joshua Tucker discuss.

besides some very recent work (eg Josh & Sol's linked Brookings piece) the debate over LLMs in political science has been bereft of recent history. we're working in the aftermath of a 30-yr war over methods that nearly crashed the discipline, after all :thread:

1 month ago 22 3 1 4
LinkedIn This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

EPSS Travel Grants for 2026 Belfast conference:

PhD students & junior scholars @ institutions in European countries that are often underrepresented, can apply for full fee waiver & £500 stipend

Apply: lnkd.in/ehXjhCgf
Deadline: March 8, 11:59pm GMT.

More details: lnkd.in/eZTP5sWR

1 month ago 31 37 0 2

🚨 Very insightful thread on a fundamental issue/misunderstanding when we are engaging with LLMs!

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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I am a 15-year-old girl. Let me show you the vile misogyny that confronts me on social media every day | Anonymous Objectification, hate, rape threats: the politicians debating online abuse mean well, but to truly understand, they need to see what I see

This is a heart wrenching read.

1 month ago 74 30 0 7

Quick PSA for all mid-career academics and above: people may be citing articles with your name on them that don't exist.

2 months ago 161 65 7 21
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Can feed algorithms shape what people think about politics? Our paper "The Political Effects of X's Feed Algorithm" is out today in Nature and answers "Yes."

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

2 months ago 275 130 4 24
Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Kulturvermittlung: Antike erleben». Projekt Vox Lapidum: Die lateinische Epigraphik-Datenbank EDCS wird um automatische Annotationen, Bilder, 3D-Scans und Metadaten erweitert. Ein dialogisches Interface macht die Geschichte von über 500'000 Inschriften zugänglich – für Forschung, Bildung und Öffentlichkeit.

Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Kulturvermittlung: Antike erleben». Projekt Vox Lapidum: Die lateinische Epigraphik-Datenbank EDCS wird um automatische Annotationen, Bilder, 3D-Scans und Metadaten erweitert. Ein dialogisches Interface macht die Geschichte von über 500'000 Inschriften zugänglich – für Forschung, Bildung und Öffentlichkeit.

Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Gesundheit und medizinische Diagnostik». Drei Projekte: ADAPT zur kinderfreundlichen ADHS-Diagnostik mittels Hirnsignalen und Bewegungsdaten; DiSpLA, erste App zur automatischen Sprachanalyse auf Schweizerdeutsch für die Früherkennung von Demenz und Sprachstörungen; Digitalisierung handschriftlicher Kinderimpfausweise mittels KI-Pipeline.

Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Gesundheit und medizinische Diagnostik». Drei Projekte: ADAPT zur kinderfreundlichen ADHS-Diagnostik mittels Hirnsignalen und Bewegungsdaten; DiSpLA, erste App zur automatischen Sprachanalyse auf Schweizerdeutsch für die Früherkennung von Demenz und Sprachstörungen; Digitalisierung handschriftlicher Kinderimpfausweise mittels KI-Pipeline.

Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Intensivmedizin». Drei Projekte: eFICUS zur psychoedukativen Unterstützung von Familien schwerkranker Personen auf der Intensivstation; MERLIN, Multi-Agenten-System für medizinische Echtzeit-Entscheidungen; Delirium DynamiX zur Früherkennung von Delirium mittels lokaler Sprachmodelle und Bayes'scher Netzwerke.

Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Intensivmedizin». Drei Projekte: eFICUS zur psychoedukativen Unterstützung von Familien schwerkranker Personen auf der Intensivstation; MERLIN, Multi-Agenten-System für medizinische Echtzeit-Entscheidungen; Delirium DynamiX zur Früherkennung von Delirium mittels lokaler Sprachmodelle und Bayes'scher Netzwerke.

Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Bildung: Lernende gezielt fördern». Zwei Projekte: LitAI kombiniert Eye-Tracking und KI für adaptive Leseförderung; Chat4All ist ein digitaler Lernassistent zur Förderung von Bildungsgerechtigkeit.

Gelbe Kachel mit DIZH-Logo. Titel: «Bildung: Lernende gezielt fördern». Zwei Projekte: LitAI kombiniert Eye-Tracking und KI für adaptive Leseförderung; Chat4All ist ein digitaler Lernassistent zur Förderung von Bildungsgerechtigkeit.

12 neue Projekte werden im 5. Projekt-Call gefördert: von der Intensivstation über das Klassenzimmer bis ins Forensische Institut, von antiken Inschriften bis zu Deepfake-Stimmen. Der 6. Projekt-Call entfällt, die Mittel wurden vorgezogen.

Mehr Informationen: www.dizh.uzh.ch/2026/02/18/f...

2 months ago 2 1 1 0

🚨🚨🚨The Berlin Court of Appeal ruled today that @democracyreporting.bsky.social (DRI) is entitled to publicly available data from X to conduct research on election interference and disinformation on X in connection with the elections in Hungary 🗳️ 🇭🇺

democracy-reporting.org/en/office/EU...

2 months ago 36 13 0 1

A lot of smart people have been in denial about AI for understandable reasons:

– the people pitching it can be distasteful
– there’s been a ton of snake-oil hype
– it’s easier not to reckon with a major disruption

2 months ago 8 3 1 0
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

2 months ago 644 222 30 52
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🚀 dashboardr is out!

An #rstats package for building interactive dashboards with tidyverse-style syntax.

Launched with a fun hackathon at @ascor.bsky.social (🍕 included).

📦: favstats.github.io/dashboardr/

Big thanks to the dashboardr team, Digicomlab, and @vivifabrien.bsky.social for the logo 🎨

2 months ago 88 26 1 2
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Early-career researchers: we offer a Peace Research Fellowship at @ipz.bsky.social University of Zurich - fully funded, 2-week research visit with the Decades of Peace team.
Deadline: March 20
Application details: www.decadesofpeace.com/fellowship
August in Zurich may include a swim in the river.

2 months ago 11 6 0 1
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Jobs

New CIS Position Openings including a Senior Research Coordinator, Postdoc Position with Karsten Donnay in Digital Democracy, and a Postdoc Position in the Political Economy of Low-Carbon Technologies: cis.ethz.ch/news-and-eve...

2 months ago 3 3 0 0
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🚨 Join us for the next edition Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim 🚨

7 days of hands-on advanced methods + networking for PhDs, postdocs & early-career researchers.
Free of charge (limited travel support).

Deadline 1 March 2026: summerschoolwpm.org
#methodsky #polisky

2 months ago 78 63 1 15
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Last week the story was that TikTok censored anti-Trump/ICE/Pretti videos after the U.S. ownership change. We investigated with a large set of US TikTok data and found some interesting results, short thread...

2 months ago 216 91 6 16

Was TikTok blocking certain political posts last week?

We investigated & found no systematic evidence of political censorship on TT post-restructuring at this point. A server outage better explains the data. But the story isn't over, and platforms need to provide the public more transparency.

2 months ago 25 7 1 0

@florianfoos.bsky.social @argohdes.bsky.social @ryanjgallag.com @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @jamoeberl.bsky.social @benguinaudeau.bsky.social @zeitzoff.bsky.social @ipz.bsky.social @antvalentim.bsky.social @valentimvicente.bsky.social

2 months ago 3 0 0 0