Polls for Still Senator Collins have left scars.

The relative enthusiasm gap to get out to a special election is a lot bigger than the quick answer you give a pollster. Maybe.

Right...disapproving of Trump doesn't mean letting the radical leftist marxist lunatics win. But maybe it keeps some of those skeptic Rs home.

Trump's approval is similar to GWB's in 2006 but the generic ballot in June 2006 (when GWB was at about 38%) was +11 for dems. Now it's +5. Partisanship and -ve partisanship are much stronger now. Many R disapprovers will remember who their team is when there's a D on a ballot.

They knew New Coke was bad but they wanted people to forget what Coke tasted like so when they brought it back they could swap in corn syrup and everyone would still be grateful.

ICPSR Summer Program online workshop on Panel Data, PCSTS, and Long Time Series essentials from May 26 to June 5.

"Panel Data, PCSTS, and Long Time Series: The Essentials," covers challenges to inference and their solutions with temporal data. For more info: myumi.ch/dgZqj

#SumProg26 #ICPSR #GraduateStudies #ProfessionalDevelopment #ResearchSkills

The gravestone of every senator who voted to confirm Pete Hegseth should include that information.

Shoring up the current balance of 6-3 should also trigger armageddon.

Why can't you run with "Trump Pretends to Order DoorDash to Put on a Show with Actor"?

Yup, fund one big scientific lifeboat for USA’s mRNA researchers.

The ICS ranges from 0-200. Republicans are way below where they were with Trump I and about where Dems were under Biden. Dems are even below where Reps were under Biden. Independents have never been lower. The ICS is full of partisanship but when so many things go badly, almost everyone notices.

Maybe think of Trump and Trump II as two resets that went badly. Let's go back to the old operating system.

I guess this means a national sales tax in the U.S.

Trump Threatens Genocide.

Nah, Melania is a solid second.

Donald Trump is the third most competent one in this picture to be president.

Twister Bagel

Toronto twister bagel erasure. unitedbakers.ca/products/twi...

Regression to the mean is supposed to be fun.

A preview that when Trump is gone his Truth Social account will automatically send out racist messages every hour on the hour.

It’s a good time to remember the
Canadian researcher in your network and look into the Social Science
and Humanities Research Council.

And/or befriend a
Canadian and try SSHRC.

Today's NYT reports "Strong showing for job market" with 178,000 jobs, fewer than during 42 of Biden's 48 months in office. For comparison, August 2023 had 187,000 in job growth and the NYT headline was "U.S. Hiring Settles Into a Lower Gear."

The Department of State tweets a video of Secretary Marco Rubio. In the video, Rubio says: "Imagine if instead of spending billions of dollars supporting terrorists or weapons, Iran had spent that money helping the people of Iran. They would have a much different country."

FactPost News tweets a video of Donald Trump speaking at a podium. In the video he says: "We can't take care of daycare. We're a big country. We're fighting wars. It's not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these things."

hmm

ADP Employment Reports The ADP Research Institute® works in close collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab and its experienced team of labor market researchers to publish employment reports.

ADP March Jobs report has 62,000 new jobs in the U.S. including the losses of 11,000 manufacturing jobs and 58,000 jobs in trade, transportation, and utilities. Tariffs are an economic disaster in the U.S. hidden by a so-far mostly resilient economy overall.

adpemploymentreport.com

I like Morris's term "softer Trump disapprovers." That's the key group where Trump's approval varies, where he found the votes to get to 49.9% in 2024, & where the Republicans can hold onto the Senate. They hate the Dems more than they disapprove of Trump and that's what they revert to.

For all the awful news in the last few months -- job growth ended, new war, shutdowns, ICE -- Trump is down 2% since early December. It won't just take more disasters to drive him lower but also for his voters who now disapprove to not revert back - they have to remember why to stay that way.

My elbow hurts.

Just in: NYT now referring to some MAGA hack lawyers as "conservative legal experts."

Donald Trump really could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and not lose any voters.