Why we aren't concerned about Walker Jenkins, why Emmanuel Rodriguez could be the next Murakami, and why MiLB slap-hitters are underrated... all on deck for this week's podcast! Check it out below:
The dumber of the two of us broke the site. It should not be operational again!
Don't forget about Peña! His pedestrian end to 2025 delayed his hype train, but we weren't too concerned, and he has since bounced back in a big way! He's doing all the things our model loves: Ks are down, walks are high, and power is there. A massive jump forward!
We do not have those stats on any players that are not public, so no, we do not. I would speculate that they are quite good, given his high averages on ground balls combined with a great HR/FB%.
Rainiel Rodriguez, catcher for St. Louis, ranked #6 overall and the #1 Cardinals prospect. Headshot centered at top. Right side lists outcome probabilities: 94% chance to become a contributor, 93% regular, and 89% star. Left panel shows relative stats vs. league average (in standard deviations): elite home run power (3.06), strong development speed (1.74) and lift (1.39), around average avoid strikeouts (0.96), with lower marks in discipline (0.78), contact (0.70), and gap power (0.57). Right panel displays a distribution of prime WAR outcomes, with high probabilities clustered between 1–3 WAR and tapering beyond 4–5 WAR. Confidence meter shown near the bottom. Player comparison listed as Christian Vázquez (2011).
He has been forgotten about a bit in favor of closer to the show prospect buzz, but Rodriguez has had a splendid start to 2026! The power is still there, the Ks low, and he continues to pull and lift, making the most of his power. He's our #6 guy for a reason!
Super pumped to share our appearance on Rates and Barrels! We shared some sleeper prospects with Eno and Derek, talked about Noah Schultz's call-up and fantasy impact, and correctly spelled Jadher Areinamo's name on air.
Catch the pod!
This week's roundup highlights an Orioles catcher (no, not that one, or the other one), a red-hot slap-hitting second baseman, a catching contact maven, and a pair of Oyster skeptical OF prospects. Who impressed you this week?
The Oyster Simulator returns! Today, we break down the current lineups of all 30 MLB teams. Who's elite, who needs some things to go right, and who is far away from competing? Also, which prospects can help each team's cause in the short term?
Had an awesome time talking ABS with @sportsinfosolutions.com and @marksimon.bsky.social! Check out the pod, and the rest of their work!
Greater Nevada Field as it gets dark. Go Aces!
First Reno Aces game of the season! Fun to be back in the ballpark!
Five-HR man James Tibbs is our hottest prospect of the week! We talk about his breakout and more in this week's "Daily Pearls" article!
The most hyped prospect in years will make his debut! Our model puts him at a modest 9th, due in part to only average pitch selection numbers. Don't be surprised if he takes a bit to get going, but remember, he's almost FOUR YEARS younger than JJ Wetherholt! Patience is key!
Always good to take the risk, especially having both challenges so late on!
Check out our first MiLB Daily Pearls newsletter! Each day, we'll highlight MiLB's top performances and use our streaks modeling to let you know whether recent notable performances are real indications of breakouts or noise!
Happy Minor League Opening Day! We've got six reasons for you to take a pit stop from the MLB and tune into some MiLB action, from Konnor Griffin's AAA debut to the beginning of the Dylan Crews revenge tour. Who will you be watching today?
Saw a few today that fit that mold! Especially late in the game.
Screenshot of Oyster Analytics Challenge Dashboard, adjusted for the situation Nico Hoerner faced on a 3-1 pitch in the bottom of the 7th.
I'm ballparking the location, of course, but using the invaluable @oysteranalytics.bsky.social Challenge Dashboard, that was a spot where Hoerner didn't even need to be 50/50 for a challenge to be worthwhile.
Graphic profiling Kevin McGonigle (DET). He is ranked the #2 overall prospect and #1 prospect in the Tigers system. Left panel shows relative hitting metrics (standard deviations above league average): Dev Speed (1.60), Discipline (1.24), Avoid K (1.92), Contact (1.18), Gap Power (1.74), HR Power (1.58), and Lift (1.35). All metrics are well above average, with especially strong bat-to-ball skills and power indicators. Right panel displays career outcome probabilities by prime WAR per season. He has a 99% chance to become a contributor or regular and a 96% chance to reach star-level production (~3+ WAR). The probability tapers gradually at higher WAR levels. A confidence meter at the bottom is mostly filled, indicating high certainty in the projection. Comparison listed: Jurickson Profar (2012).
What prospect debut are you most excited to see on Opening Day? We're partial to our #2 prospect, Kevin McGonigle; how about you?
All too often, we get locked in on small samples with prospects, projecting MLB stardom after a hot month. In today's piece, we interrogate hot and cold streaks: When do they matter? Which traits are sticky, which are luck, and which matter less? We get into that and more:
Our 16th overall prospect and rankings neighbor with fellow Brewer Luis Peña, Made is beyond legit. His power mostly consists of gap shots like these, but once he matures, he'll add even more value as he clears fences. Also playing a solid SS, Made is the real deal!
New logo, new features, new us! We're excited to relaunch Down on the Farm alongside the new oysteranalytics.com, providing our subscribers with more ways to stay in touch with the game's top prospects. Read about all the features in today's piece:
Rojas is a prime example of how even below average at a young age > above average at an older age. He does the most important thing for young players in avoiding Ks while having no major weaknesses at the plate. Added strength will up his power and those top-line numbers!
Hey, we believe! Nori's elite contact skills are his best asset, and he also elevates the ball, avoiding a common pitfall of many contact mavens. His good D, line-drive hitting approach could make him a solid part of an MLB roster; we give him a 1/5 shot to break through!
Thanks @fishonfirst.com for having us on! We'll be locked in on Caissie in 2026; don't be shocked if he has a huge year!
It’s not bad! I mean this all relates to the ultimate question of what we want the game to be. In tennis there was no debate, 100% accuracy was the clear goal. In baseball, it’s more nuanced than that: are we willing to destroy part of the craft of the game to get that accuracy? It’s interesting.
Each extra inning actually.
You get one back in extras which helps!
If only... In ABS speak, this is one of the highest leverage challenges possible: full count, late game, runner on. Calls like this are what can be overturned if teams are smart with their challenges mid-game, and will hopefully lead to more satisfying endings!
Dashboard: oysteranalytics.com
The Oyster/Down on the Farm Top 100 has landed! We went in-depth on each prospect, summarizing their projection & play, and showing how we feel relative to the mainstream. Read our breakdown of our modeled T100, from Leo De Vries to Javier Mogollon:
Alex Freeland prospect profile graphic for the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD). He is ranked #114 overall and #4 Dodgers prospect. His future projection shows a 39% chance of becoming a Contributor, 31% chance of being a Regular, and 12% chance of becoming a Star. Relative statistics (standard deviations from league average) include: Development Speed +1.07, Discipline +1.13, Avoid K +0.19, Contact +0.07, Gap Power +0.71, Home Run Power +0.37, and Lift +0.44. A probability chart shows the likelihood of different prime WAR-per-season outcomes, with the highest probabilities clustered around roughly 0–2 WAR seasons, tapering off as WAR increases. Model comparison: Matt McLain (2023). A confidence meter at the bottom indicates strong model confidence.
We believe in Freeland and his walk skills! While he lacks serious power or contact upside, the doubles are present enough to ward off pitchers who attack him aggressively. He might struggle to break through with LAD, but we think he has a better shot than most to be a regular!